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Justin Carter breaks down the fantasy situation for Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson and the team's backfield in 2021 after RB Cam Akers went down for the season with an injury.
On Tuesday, news broke that Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers would miss the 2021 season after tearing his Achilles.
You never want to see a guy get hurt, but you especially never want to see a guy suffer this particular injury, especially a running back. The position doesn't have a great track record of recovery from Achilles tears. Hopefully, Akers can buck that trend and be back on an NFL field in 2022, producing big numbers.
But for 2021, it looks like Darrell Henderson will step in as the starting running back for the Rams. What can we expect from Henderson and the rest of this Rams backfield?
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Darrell Henderson Is (Probably) A Fantasy RB2
Henderson was already going to be one of the NFL's best backup running backs. Now, he'll have to play a different role, but he should find success in it.
Henderson doesn't have the same upside as Akers, who had the explosiveness and all-around game that put him in line to finish as an RB1 this upcoming season. But Henderson is really more of a change-of-pace back, so his overall workload this season probably won't look exactly like Akers' workload.
Henderson's efficiency numbers last year are...not super encouraging, though. Per PlayerProfiler, Henderson was 29th in true yards per carry, 51st in juke rate, and 36th in yards created. He just wasn't really able to provide the kind of explosion that you want to see, which is probably a big part of why Akers ended up playing so much at the end of the season.
But there are still reasons to have optimism with Henderson. He has a 81st percentile 40 time, so while his burst score is just in the 42nd percentile, he can build up speed, even if he might not have that initial burst you want. He was able to run for huge gains in college.
The Rams ran the ball a lot last year, but the addition of Matthew Stafford at quarterback, as well as wide receiver DeSean Jackson, signals to me that this team will rely more on their passing game, limiting some of Henderson's upside because of fewer opportunities. (Though you can argue that the addition of Stafford also opens up space for Henderson to run!)
Still, Henderson had some solid games early in the year and despite being on the field for just 32.8 percent of his team's plays, he was 17th among all running backs in red-zone touches. And PFF graded him as the top running back in the league through Week 8, according to Yahoo's Liz Loza.
Right now, projected volume leads me to put Henderson right in the middle of the RB2 field. He's had some good games in the NFL! He's young! He's limited in some ways, but he has more upside than a lot of the guys getting drafted as low-end RB2s.
Who Is Xavier Jones?
Yeah, who is Xavier Jones?
As someone from Texas, I've at least watched some of Jones back when he was at SMU, but I also kind of forgot about him after he played exactly zero offensive snaps as a rookie.
Jones was really at SMU. At one point, Dave Campbell's Texas Football's college insider, Shehan Jeyarajah, called Jones "the best running back in the state of Texas." That's high praise. But what does Jones bring to the Rams?
Well, at SMU, he was really good at scoring touchdowns, with 25 of them in his last season. He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he's a smart runner who can hit holes and absorb contact.
He also had 20 receptions in 2019 for the Mustangs. His best season as a receiver came back in 2015 though, when he had 28 catches for 219 yards. Jones can be a reliable receiving option, maybe.
That's the key word here: maybe. Jones is an unknown, as are all the other running backs on this current roster. Jake Funk is a rookie. Raymond Calais played in Tampa for one season and saw no offensive touches (but had seven kick returns). Everything behind Henderson is a question mark.
Which is why the Rams have to bring someone else in, right? They can't be serious about going into the season with the current configuration of the running back room, right?
Is There A Free Agent Out There Who Could Help?
Help? Sure. But the Rams aren't finding anyone on the scrap heap of free agency right now who would challenge Henderson to be the lead back.
If they bring in someone who could realistically turn this into a timeshare, I'd expect that happens just before the regular season starts, when a team makes a last-minute cut of some productive back. You could look at a team like Houston, who has Mark Ingram sitting there as their RB3 right now. Someone like Ingram could eventually find their way onto this team.
But in terms of guys who are out there in free agency right now, I just don't see who challenges Henderson.
I mean, there's Adrian Peterson. Lots of people seem to think Peterson is an option for L.A. But forgive me if I don't think a 36-year-old Peterson is an upgrade over Henderson. He might have a short-yardage role, but last year Peterson was 99th among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity. He was 55th in yards per touch. He was seventh in goal-line carries, but that's not an efficiency stat.
I've also seen some chatter about a Todd Gurley return. But Gurley's 15 games last year weren't much better than Peterson's -- and in fact, you can argue they were worse. 101st in fantasy points per opportunity. 60th in yards per touch. He had nine touchdowns, but he was even less efficient than Peterson. Hard for me to see this Rams front office looking at Gurley and saying "yes, this is the guy we want back."
The Rams will likely sign someone. But that someone probably doesn't hurt Henderson too much. Unless...
That would be fun!
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