Finding Value in Dynasty Rookie Drafts

June 14, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes dynasty league rookie draft ADP to determine the best values at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. for fantasy football.

In the world of redraft, every player in the NFL is on the table during your draft. In Dynasty, there is a startup draft when the league first starts where you pick from current NFL players. Every year after that, you have just one draft every year, and that is your rookie draft. Just as in the NFL draft, you’re picking exclusively from rookies who have yet to make their debuts, and, depending on how early you did them, they may not even be on a team yet. When those rookie drafts are happening, just as in a regular draft, you’re always looking for value.

Last season, you had four major players in terms of value in rookie drafts that gave you immediate returns in single-quarterback formats. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool and Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson all had an ADP outside of the top 18 of rookie drafts. Herbert and Robinson were both top 10 finishers at their positions, and Gibson and Claypool were both in the top 24. Meanwhile, Las Vegas Raiders’ wideout Henry Ruggs III was WR87 on the year after having an ADP of 1.08 in rookie drafts. 

Who are the players that we’ll be talking about in this conversation a year from now? Who are the players currently being drafted near the end of the second round or later that you’ll be riding to a fantasy championship while someone else’s first-round pick is stuck in a running-back committee? That’s what we’re looking at today. These players don’t have a guaranteed amount of early success, but they do have the potential to be a big player for you in a year or could even contribute in Year 1 if things break their way. 

Quarterback

New England Patriots Mac Jones

Current ADP: 30.5 Overall

There were a couple of options to go with here. In single-quarterback leagues, quarterbacks always go later. This makes sense, but, at the same time, if you hit on a guy in the second or third round, you could be set for years to come while others are scrambling to fill that gap every other year. Among the top 44 players in rookie draft ADP, there are seven quarterbacks. The only one of those seven being drafted after Mac Jones is Kellen Mond of the Minnesota Vikings. That’s right, Jones is being drafted behind the other four first-round picks from this year, along with second-round pick Kyle Trask of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Jones currently has an ADP of 32 out of 44. In 10-team leagues, he would be picked 3.02, and that almost seems wild to me. Jones just came off of one of the most efficient seasons we’ve ever seen in college football with 4500 yards, 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions en route to an undefeated season and a national championship at Alabama. Now, he enters a quarterback room featuring Jarrett Stidham, who has more interceptions than touchdowns through two seasons, and Cam Newton, who dealt with the effects of Covid-19 last season and is now dealing with a bone bruise to his finger. Unlike a situation such as Trask in Tampa Bay, there is a legitimate path to Jones starting early on in his rookie season.

Jones is also set up for some easy success as a rookie. The offensive line is one of the best in football, and the team brought in receiving help this offseason in the forms of tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith along with wideouts Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. They also have a running back in Damien Harris that Jones should have at least some familiarity with from their two seasons in school. Head coach Bill Belichick is nearing the end of his run as a head coach in the NFL. He doesn’t have time to waste, and he made that clear with the free-agent spending spree he went on this offseason. If Newton struggles out of the gate to start the season, we could have an early Jones sighting which gives you a starting quarterback for a third-round pick.

Running Back

Atlanta Falcons Javian Hawkins

Current ADP: 27.2 Overall

A quick honorable mention is given to Chuba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers and Trey Sermon of the San Francisco 49ers. Both have ADPs outside of the top 25 and a possibility of playing time as rookies. However, it’s Javian Hawkins that’s getting the nod here. The Falcons brought in Mike Davis this offseason to be their new starting running back. Davis had a breakout season last year with the Panthers, and, after letting their top three running backs from 2020 go, they needed to fill the room back up. Hawkins was an undrafted free agent, but there is a path to production available.

Until last season, Davis was nothing more than a journeyman that was traveling from team to team. Heading into his seventh NFL season, he’s on his fifth team, and he’s only gone over 100 carries into two out of his six seasons thus far. Hawkins is coming off of a season that had him poised to go over 1300 rushing yards for the second straight season if it weren’t for Louisville only playing an eight-game schedule. Between Davis and Hawkins lies Qadree Ollison, who, through two seasons, has a total of 24 touches, and he only had one in all of 2020. This is one of the murkiest backfields in the NFL heading into the season.

Unlike Jones, the path to playing time is not nearly as clear for Hawkins. Could he usurp Ollison on the depth chart? Absolutely. He was a strong athlete at the Combine with a 4.46 40-yard dash along with a 3-cone drill that was in the 68th percentile and a vertical jump in the 70th percentile of all running backs. New head coach Arthur Smith had a true workhorse in Derrick Henry with the Tennessee Titans. While Davis could fill that role to a certain extent, Hawkins can be the change-of-pace back that would allow Davis to stay fresh all season long. For a pick in the late 20s of rookie drafts, there aren’t a lot of running backs available after him that can still have a path to playing time. 

Wide Receiver

Seattle Seahawks D'Wayne Eskridge

Current ADP: 30.8 Overall

This was far and away the toughest of the four positions to make a decision. The players that have a clear early path to production are largely being taken in the 20 picks. After that, the players being drafted are either in crowded rooms or have question marks outside of their control. Amari Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers could have Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love or someone else altogether throwing him the ball. Nico Collins of the Houston Texans has a ton of uncertainty in his own quarterback room. Elsewhere, guys like Dazz Newsome, Jaelon Darden and Tutu Atwell are very deep wide receiver rooms. So, as a result, Eskridge is the guy getting the nod here.

The Seahawks had just three draft picks this year, and their first wasn’t until 56 overall. Despite having a great duo of receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, along with other more pressing needs, they elected to make Eskridge their first pick. Eskridge immediately becomes the third option in the receiver pecking order. David Moore, now with the Panthers, was third on the team in targets last year with 47, and he caught 35 of them for six touchdowns, which was also third on the roster. Moore brought more size to the position at 6’ and 219 pounds compared to Eskridge who measured in at 5’8 & ¾” and 190 pounds, but Eskridge just wrapped up a college career that saw him average 22.7 yards per catch over his final three seasons.

Eskridge isn’t going to be your WR1 or WR2, unless one of the two guys ahead of him goes down with an injury. However, if the Seahawks focus on throwing the ball as they did in the first half of the season compared to the second half, there are a lot more opportunities for fantasy success for more players. Russ averaged a full 2.0 more touchdowns and 13.15 more fantasy points over the team's first eight games compared to their final eight down the back stretch.

If you’re able to get Eskridge in the early third round as a possible flex option, you could be doing worse.

Tight End

Carolina Panthers Tommy Tremble

Current ADP: Undrafted

It has been well discussed how weak this tight end class is. There was Falcons’ tight end Kyle Pitts along with Pat Friermuth in Pittsburgh followed by a bunch of other guys. There are currently just three players in the top 44 of ADP with Hunter Long of the Miami Dolphins being the other behind the two aforementioned players. Rather than force the issue with one of the non-Pitts tight ends. We’re going off the board with Tommy Tremble in Carolina. Tremble is the type of player that’s just barely off of the field right now. Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold are currently ahead of him on the depth chart, but it’s not some monumental task for Tremble to usurp one or both of them.

Thomas and Arnold were both training camp darlings of the fantasy football world. They went on to catch a total of 51 passes between the two of them on a total of 76 targets. There has been some early buzz in camp about Thomas, but he’s a possible cut candidate that could save the team over $2 million against the cap. While the team isn’t hurting for cap space, they brought in Arnold and Tremble this offseason, and they don’t really have a need for three tight ends with the way they currently run their offense. 

The main appeal to Tremble is going to be his athleticism. He tested in the 80th percentile or better in 10-yard and 20-yard split, 40-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump. Thomas has some good measurables as well, but Tremble just turned 23 years old. Even if Tremble is unable to give you production as a rookie, which is entirely possible as tight ends generally take more time to get up to speed, he has a realistic path to being a starter next season while requiring you to give up nothing more than a late-round rookie pick.

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