RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
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In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, June 4th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/4
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- Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets (-115) - 5.5U
- Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-115) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nick Suzuki, MTL ($5,600 DK / $5,900 FD) - Suzuki has been on a little bit of a point streak lately as he has registered a point in four straight games and the matchup against Winnipeg might get a little easier as they will be missing Mark Scheifele and could also be missing veteran center, Paul Stastny. Suzuki has fared well against the Jets all season long as he has four goals and four assists in 10 total games played and for his given price point, he makes for a great value in all formats.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- MacKinnon
- Mid-Tier- Stephenson, Karlsson
- Value- Dubois, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Jost
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Max Pacioretty, VGK ($6,600 DK / $7,200 FD) - Vegas is now down 2-0 in the series and they will need a big game from their stars like Max Pacioretty. Pacioretty has been in very good form as he has registered a point in four straight games and he is one that has a green light when it comes to shooting the puck. Pacioretty has six goals in nine games against the Avs and with Vegas being on home ice the next two games, Pacioretty and his linemates should find themselves in some favorable matchups.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rantanen, Landeskog, Toffoli, Connor
- Mid-Tier- Stone, Marchessault, Gallagher, Wheeler
- Value- Anderson, Smith, Copp, Tuch, Saad
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alec Martinez, VGK ($5,100 DK / $4,600 FD) - Martinez is seeing over 20+ minutes and he is making the most of it by recording 21 peripheral stats over his last five games. While he isn't the point producer like Theodore or Pietrangelo is, he makes up for it on the defensive end which makes him a better overall play on DK due to the bonuses that can be achieved on that site.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Makar
- Mid-Tier- Pietrangelo, Theodore, Petry, Weber, Toews
- Value- Graves, Forbort, Hague
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Carey Price, MTL ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) - With the four-game suspension being handed down to Mark Scheifele and the Jets, it opened up a big opportunity for Montreal to build upon their early 1-0 lead in the series as they will be missing one of their top playmakers. Price has actually performed very well so far in the playoffs as he is allowing 2.37 goals per game and has seen over 30 shot attempts in four straight games. Price has done well against Winnipeg this season as he is 3-1-1 in five games played despite having a 3.01 goals allowed average and a .903 save percentage but given the factors of the Scheifele suspension and his overall price point, it is hard to not float his way in all formats.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Grubauer
- Mid-Tier- Fleury
- Value-
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone (Pietrangelo, D-men add on)
- The top line for Vegas has played well in just their 34 minutes of ice time together throughout the playoffs and should benefit greatly from having the home-ice advantage tonight against Colorado. In the 34 minutes of ice time, this line has produced two 5v5 goals while managing to create 16 scoring chances and seven high-danger opportunities. They are sporting an expected goal for rate of 2.94 which is very good and it is relatively close to their 3.2 expected goals for rate against the Avs at home during the regular season.
- Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone (Pietrangelo, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: COL 1, MTL 2, VGK 2, MTL 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
