Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 4

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It is very unbecoming to be braggadocious, but hey if you read this article last week you just may have started a no-hitter from Carlos Rodon because of it. You may also have picked up Drew Smyly (forearm) just in time for him to give up five earned runs in as many innings and then land on the injured list, but hey - never let the truth ruin a good story.

We are heading into Week 4 now, and boy time flies when you're having fun! The elite starters are nearing their fourth turn through the rotation already and we have seen some real breakout performances already. No doubt the waiver wire is getting thinner as these weeks pass and fantasy managers start gobbling up these electric arms looking really good at small rostered percentages. The well will never run dry though, and we have a solid 22 weeks left of fantasy baseball to cover.

Let's get into some ideas for waiver wire pickups while considering the current rostered percentages. These are recommendations designed to be longer-term options. I am focusing more on the advanced metrics here rather than short-term schedule analysis. The week ahead is Monday, April 19th through 25th. Let's get into it.

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Pickups for Shallow Leagues

Huascar Ynoa, Atlanta Braves (52% rostered)

This was not a name that you heard much during draft season, but oh how quickly things can change. Ynoa opened his season with one inning of relief but then entered the rotation. In his first two starts for the Braves, he racked up 15 strikeouts in 11 innings while giving up five hits and just one lone earned run. His Saturday start did not go well against the Cubs, however. Adding on to the bad news, in his career prior to 2021, Ynoa had thrown just 24.2 Major League innings and they had not been pretty as he gave up 20 earned runs and 29 hits in those frames.

2021 is a new year, and Ynoa has flashed some brilliant stuff so far. His four-seam fastball has reached triple-digits already and has averaged 97 miles per hour. His sinker is also thrown very hard with an average velocity of 97.5 miles per hour. His most commonly thrown pitch is actually a slider (45% usage) that had a ridiculous 23% swinging-strike rate prior to Saturday's outing. He has also been able to keep the ball on the ground with a GB% above 55%.

I am willing to forgive the bad start on Saturday and invest in the skills.

Taijuan Walker, New York Mets (25% rostered)

I'm talking about Walker for a third straight week, but his rostered percentage just has not budged. He's added velocity this year, throwing his fastball as hard as 97 miles per hour. He has a strong 31% CSW% and a 12% swinging-strike rate this year with a decent 42% ground-ball rate.

Maybe people just haven't bought in yet. His last outing against the Phillies lasted just 4.1 innings, but he struck out eight. The walks have been a bit of a problem with five walks in his 10.1 innings, and he's thrown just south of 50% of his pitches in the zone. Everything else though has looked encouraging. I'm a believer in Walker and think he can put up some really nice stats and pile up some wins with that Mets offense behind him once they get going.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers (29% rostered)

Mize was highly touted heading into last year when he was rushed to the big leagues with the canceled minor league season. It was not an impressive first stretch in the Majors, but things are looking a bit better for him so far this year. In 11 innings, he has struck out nine hitters and allowed just one earned run while facing the tough offenses of the Twins and Astros. He has also shown elevated velocity and a deep pitch arsenal, throwing each of his four-seamer, slider, splitter, and sinker more than 10% of the time (he also has a lightly used changeup).

The bad news for Mize is the command has not been there. He has thrown just 54% of his pitches in the strike zone and has a low overall CSW% of 23.4%. Those numbers are discouraging, but they have not manifested in a huge walk issue (yet) as he's issued just four free passes thus far. There is such a thing as "effectively wild" though, and maybe Mize has that going for him, although his low 6.4% swinging-strike rate suggests that is probably not the case.

There is definitely risk with Mize, and the recommendation on picking him up is mainly the result of his former pedigree as a prospect. He is going to need to improve his command and get a few more whiffs to have continued success, but he certainly has the skills to do just that.

Pickups for Deeper Leagues

Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers (23% rostered)

Dunning has had a nice start to the year with his new team, throwing nine innings in two starts while allowing five hits, one run, and striking out 11. With his first Major League cup of coffee with the White Sox last year, he impressed with a 24% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, and a 45% ground-ball rate. He's made strides on those numbers already this year with a 32.4% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate. That stuff is always really encouraging to see from a young pitcher even over just a couple of starts.

He has been mostly sinker and slider this year, as those two pitches have made up 86.5% of his offerings. He has a strong 33.5% CSW with the sinker, but hasn't gotten as many whiffs as you would like to see with the slider at 10.3% SwStr%. His lightly used changeup has been the put-away pitch and has really caught hitters off guard with a 30% swinging-strike rate. He's also mixed in a few cutters and curves, but used them mostly as waste pitches. The ceiling isn't super high with Dunning since he's still pretty raw and he's pitching behind one of the worst offenses in the game, but he seems like a mature pitcher than can get some strikeouts and limit the damage most times out.

Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros (34% rostered)

It was not a pleasant return to the mound for his new team, as Odorizzi gave up seven hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched. He was going to be eased into things regardless, so he was not given a chance to even out his line by throwing a few more strong innings. The somewhat encouraging part of the start was that most of the damage was done by the long ball, but none of those home runs traveled very far. Akil Baddoo hit a ball 96 miles per hour that traveled 348 feet over the fence, and Nomar Mazara hit one at 96 miles per hour that went just 363 feet for a dinger. Renato Nunez's homer was the furthest at 381 feet. That leaves Odorizzi with the shortest average distance on home runs given up so far this year.

So yeah. Justifying three home runs allowed is not the most convincing thing, I know, but I'm willing to give Odorizzi a pass on that start. He was just coming back from an injury and had not had a normal spring anyways, signing with the Astros late after the Framber Valdez (finger) injury. Odorizzi was really solid with the Twins in 2019. He has proven that he can generate a lot of spin, and you always like to see the Astros get their hands on someone like that. I'm keeping an eye on Odorizzi and adding him in very deep leagues if he's still available.

Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers (10% rostered)

Another boring, low-upside player here, but man this is a low percentage for Gibson. Right now, his numbers look terrible, but that's mainly the result of his brutal 0.1 inning outing on Opening Day. Since that start he's thrown 13 innings (against the Blue Jays and Rays) and given up just one run on ten hits while striking out 11. His new cutter has a high swinging-strike rate of 16.7% and a ground-ball rate of 50%, which is great to see. Gibson's calling card has always been limiting the damage by keeping the walk totals down and getting some soft contact. He's done a lot of that since the first start, and he should be rostered at a much higher rate than we see right now. He doesn't have significant strikeout upside and probably won't throw any shutouts, but he's a solid pitcher, likely a better fantasy arm than the worst starter on your team in a deep league.

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