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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, April 2nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
The weekend starts off strong with a 10-game slate Friday, but since most of the games are out-of-conference matchups, expect some lineup changes. It's been announced that Stephen Curry is likely to rest, so already we have our first dose of variance we need to take into account tonight. If Andrew Wiggins is the headliner for the Warriors roster, there isn't an under safe from what he is projected to produce.
The Bucks and Trail Blazers are set to have the highest-scoring game of the night, but Portland will need every ounce of effort they can get from both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. With Jusuf Nurkic still getting his bearings back, the Trail Blazers can't rely on support from their frontcourt just yet.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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GSW @ TOR
Stephen Curry (GSW) MORE 26.5 Points - Fred VanVleet (TOR) MORE 22.5 Points
Expect Steph Curry to get replaced here, but Fred VanVleet is a safe bet for the over. He's been one of the more consistent scorers on the Raptors, though that's not saying much. Toronto has basically been scrambling for offense whenever VanVleet or Pascal Siakam can't score, but that leads us to talking about the Warriors defense that ranks 28th in defensive rating over the past six games. (For what it's worth, the Raptors rank 27th.)
When Andrew Wiggins finds his way into this wager, the over is ideal for both him and VanVleet, unless you simply want to bet on both having poor shooting nights. Last night against the Heat, Curry dropped 36 points and Wiggins still scored 23 points of his own. Regardless of when Curry announces he is going to officially be out, the Wiggins over is a great bet.
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HOU @ BOS
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 23.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 23.5
Feeding into the "attacking bad defenses" narrative, Jayson Tatum has been scoring with ease over the past four games and that momentum seems to have more weight now than some of his streaks earlier this season. The Rockets defense improves every game Christian Wood and John Wall play together, but that's not going to impact Tatum scoring. Since the Celtics have only won three of their last 10 games, Boston is letting Tatum play with the brightest of green lights.
It's a similar case for the Rockets in terms of losing games, except for the fact that John Wall is an extremely adaptable point guard. As much as he wants to score, depending on how well he can get inside of the defense, he will always look to find teammates before doing everything himself. The Celtics guards are more likely to give up points, so if anything, Wall is in for a well-rounded, productive outing. It took me so long to write this that Tatum's projected points has dropped from 25 points to 23 points.
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DAL @ NYK
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 27.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 21.5
Even with the Knicks struggling, they still get to slow the game down, helping Luka Doncic' case. Truthfully, this matchup favors both Doncic and Julius Randle heavily because of the slower pace and the Mavericks inconsistent defense. Dallas' frontcourt doesn't handle physical play well and Randle prefers doing his work from the inside-out. With both defenses ranking in the top 10 in defensive rating over the past five games, that will just force the issue onto their teams best players that much more.
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MIN @ MEM
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) MORE 24.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) LESS 21.5
Although Karl-Anthony Towns will have no problem reaching the over, Ja Morant has been all over the place lately. The Grizzlies are so inconsistent that there is no relying on them for scoring. If anyone outside of Morant or Jonas Valanciunas scores, it's a welcome surprise. The unfortunate part is how poorly his teammates inability to score affects Morant's production. He should have no issue scoring against Ricky Rubio, but the rest of the Timberwolves are an athletic group of hybrid guards that are slowly learning how to use their athleticism and physicality.
Although those points may seem irrelevant because of how susceptible the Timberwolves backcourt is to opposing guard production, Morant just doesn't offer the greatest spacing. He might get to the rim, but it's hard to think that players like Jarred Vanderbilt and Naz Reid are just going to let him drive without consequences. Teams should know at this point that to beat the Grizzlies, you need to force Morant to pass.
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