2021 Points League Rankings - Outfield

February is finally here and that means that draft season is getting into full gear. And here at RotoBaller, we're about more than just roto leagues. We're here to cover your whole fantasy spectrum.

So let's do some point ranks, shall we? If you've forgotten from last year, I have strong opinions on point leagues. TL;DR? You can't just transfer over value from roto and you can't just take players with good BB/K ratios. You must make your values based on your specific rule and not assume that someone who is good in one scoring system will hold the same value as in another system. If you don't, you'll be behind from jump street. Or, at least you won't be as set up for success as you could be.

Let's leave the infield behind for a tick and head out to the grass, shall we? Acunas, Sotos, and Trout, oh my! Let's get to it.

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Methodology and Common Terms

If you've already been reading along at home, feel free to skip ahead to the ranks. If not, welcome! Let's cover some basics first.

I'll mention this often ( and have mentioned it often); player values can vary wildly depending on your individual league settings. Whether using the standard scoring of the major platforms (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax) or custom setting, understanding how players score in your system and how roster sizes affect value is supremely important. The more you leverage this understanding, the more powerful the position you'll be starting from.

Here are the standard roster settings on the aforementioned platforms:

	Fantrax	ESPN	Yahoo	CBS
C	1	1	1	1
1B	1	1	1	1
2B	1	1	1	1
3B	1	1	1	1
SS	1	1	1	1
OF	5	5	3	3
CI	1	1	0	0
MI	1	1	0	0
UT	1	1	2	1
SP	0	0	2	5
RP	0	0	2	2
P	9	9	4	0
Bench	3	3	5	5
IL	0	0	4	0

Here are standard scoring settings on the aforementioned platforms:

Hitters

Hitters	Fantrax	ESPN	CBS	Yahoo	Generic
1B	1	1	1	2.6	1
2B	2	2	2	5.2	2
3B	3	3	3	7.8	3
HR	4	4	4	10.4	4
Run	1	1	1	1.9	1
RBI	1	1	1	1.9	1
SB	2	1	2	4.2	2
CS	0	0	-1	0	0
BB	1	1	1	2.6	1
K	0	-1	-.5	0	-.25
HBP	0	0	1	2.6	.5

With values varying, it can make doing a general point ranking a little tricky. For example, Ronald Acuna Jr. is a top-five player for me on every platform besides ESPN, where I'd probably put him closer to #20. That's a big swing. So what I've done is to use a "generic" point system as a baseline for doing ranks, as well as talking about per-PA scoring rates. It gives the one-point per-base that all systems generally use, with two points for stolen bases and -.25 points for a strikeout.

This gives us a common baseline so we're at least speaking close to the same language, no matter your platform. But if you're on ESPN, know that you'll need to make heavier adjustments for speed/high K% players.

General System notes

• Yahoo started mirroring their scoring to their daily fantasy game, making the scoring wildly different than other platforms.
• ESPN (-1) and CBS (-.5) both subtract points for strikeouts. This is a monster difference and must be properly accounted for. Take Ronald Acuna Jr. versus Juan Soto in 2019, as an example of the difference over a full season. Acuna had a 26.6% K%, while Soto posted a 20.0% K%. That translated to 188 strikeouts for Acuna and 132 SO for Soto, putting Acuna in a 56-point hole under ESPN scoring. That's a big difference.
• ESPN only gives one point per stolen base. The more a player's value depends on stolen bases (in other scoring formats, as well as roto), the more their value will take a negative hit on ESPN. It's not as an extreme difference as the strikeout scoring but still needs to be accounted for.
• Players who steal a lot of bases and strikeout a lot are going to take big hits on ESPN. Adalberto Mondesi is the most extreme example of players who are essentially not draftable on ESPN when comparing their scoring to likely ADP. But  Jonathan Villar is in a similar boat, as is the aforementioned Acuna Jr. Let's just say that if you see an ESPN point rankings that have Acuna Jr. in the top-10, you should run away.

Data Notes

• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Barrel - From MLB.com:

"The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented in 2015. 

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."

Common Terms

• Barrel% - Barrels per batted-ball event
• Air% - total percent of balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)
• Air% average EV - average exit velocity of non-groundballs
• Air % 100+ mph- the percentage of balls hit in the air that had an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls.

In addition to rankings, the charts include how players have scored the last three years in the generic scoring system, as well as what I am currently projecting for 2021. Also included in 2019-20 strikeout rates to better help those who play in leagues where they are punished, make adjustments, as well as wOBA and xwOBA for 2020.

 

Outfielder Rankings

Overall Rank	Pos Rank	Name	All Pos	2019 pt/pa	2020 pt/pa	2020 woba	2020 xwoba	2019 K%	2020 K%
1	1	Juan Soto	OF	.939	1.173	.470	.451	20.0	14.3
3	2	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF	.929	1.045	.407	.401	26.3	29.7
7	3	Mike Trout	OF	1.058	.967	.400	.408	20.0	23.2
8	4	Bryce Harper	OF	.872	.956	.393	.435	26.1	17.6
9	5	Mookie Betts	OF	.899	.998	.383	.349	14.3	15.4
15	6	Christian Yelich	OF	1.109	.741	.337	.365	20.3	30.8
17	7	Cody Bellinger	1B,OF	1.042	.788	.332	.360	16.4	17.3
21	8	Marcell Ozuna	OF	.832	.981	.437	.417	20.8	22.5
30	9	Eloy Jimenez	OF	.771	.814	.367	.355	26.6	24.8
35	10	Kyle Tucker	OF	1.000	.897	.343	.318	27.8	20.2
37	11	George Springer	OF	.956	.867	.373	.387	20.3	17.1
48	12	Randy Arozarena	OF	.957	1.059	.416	.355	17.4	28.9
53	13	Mike Yastrzemski	OF	.789	.917	.400	.355	26.0	24.4
54	14	Michael Conforto	OF	.808	.849	.395	.359	23.0	24.5
58	15	Luis Robert	OF		.761	.311	.315		32.2
61	16	Nick Castellanos	OF	.768	.755	.324	.356	21.5	28.5
62	17	Aaron Judge	OF	.832	.921	.368	.361	31.5	28.1
64	18	Starling Marte	OF	.883	.767	.328	.313	16.0	16.4
65	19	Trent Grisham	OF	.689	.810	.344	.355	26.2	25.4
69	20	Teoscar Hernandez	OF	.732	.909	.378	.381	33.0	30.4
78	21	Dominic Smith	1B,OF	.832	.933	.405	.374	22.3	22.6
87	22	Eddie Rosario	OF	.826	.820	.328	.306	14.6	14.7
89	23	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF	.838	.804	.366	.331	25.1	21.4
92	24	Max Kepler	OF	.848	.745	.323	.329	16.6	18.4
94	25	Byron Buxton	OF	.898	.881	.339	.320	23.1	26.7
103	26	Alex Verdugo	OF	.726	.736	.356	.291	13.0	20.4
104	27	Ian Happ	OF	.918	.750	.363	.348	25.0	27.3
107	28	Anthony Santander	OF			.358	.338	21.2	15.2
110	29	Wil Myers	OF	.686	.936	.393	.377	34.3	25.7
112	30	Andrew McCutchen	OF	.791	.743	.322	.343	21.0	19.9
115	31	Jorge Soler	OF	.871	.655	.327	.338	26.2	34.5
116	32	Charlie Blackmon	OF	.882	.753	.335	.317	16.4	17.8
118	33	J.D. Martinez	OF	.865	.600	.285	.304	21.0	24.9
119	34	Joey Gallo	OF	.944	.616	.292	.300	38.4	35.0
122	35	Kole Calhoun	OF	.741	.871	.357	.364	25.6	21.9
125	36	Victor Robles	OF	.747	.533	.268	.254	22.7	28.0
130	37	Tommy Pham	OF	.773	.642	.282	.348	18.8	21.6
138	38	Kyle Lewis	OF	.810	.749	.344	.332	38.7	29.3
142	39	Ramon Laureano	OF	.843	.651	.311	.331	25.6	26.1
145	40	Austin Meadows	OF	.880	.595	.287	.263	22.2	32.9
147	41	Trey Mancini	1B,OF	.830				21.1
148	42	Randal Grichuk	OF	.679	.778	.329	.320	26.0	21.2
149	43	Michael Brantley	OF	.808	.754	.356	.314	10.4	15.0
151	44	Mark Canha	OF	.834	.759	.346	.345	21.5	22.2
159	45	Clint Frazier	OF	.738	.875	.382	.348	28.5	27.5
164	46	AJ Pollock	OF	.765	.856	.358	.333	21.6	21.4
166	47	Ryan Mountcastle	1B,OF		.725	.371	.319		21.4
177	48	Aaron Hicks	OF	.745	.756	.346	.364	28.2	18.0
180	49	Kyle Schwarber	OF	.811	.658	.302	.330	25.6	29.5
186	50	Lorenzo Cain	OF	.638	.738	.347	.417	17.0	9.5
187	51	Hunter Dozier	1B,OF	.780	.683	.321	.319	25.3	25.8
189	52	Raimel Tapia	OF	.647	.677	.333	.286	22.4	18.4
190	53	Andrew Benintendi	OF	.689	.380	.238	.272	22.8	32.7
191	54	Bryan Reynolds	OF	.780	.571	.273	.302	22.2	27.4
196	55	Jesse Winker	OF	.729	.844	.389	.383	15.6	25.1
198	56	Mitch Haniger	OF	.759				28.6
202	57	Dylan Carlson	OF		.574	.260	.303		29.4
207	58	Joc Pederson	OF	.847	.685	.293	.325	21.6	24.6
216	59	Brandon Nimmo	OF	.721	.761	.381	.349	28.0	19.1
219	60	Avisail Garcia	OF	.730	.530	.291	.306	23.6	23.7
220	61	Leody Taveras	OF		.688	.302	.291		32.1
233	62	Justin Upton	OF	.701	.670	.302	.315	30.5	25.9
237	63	David Peralta	OF	.707	.664	.328	.292	20.6	20.6
239	64	Nick Senzel	OF	.707	.606	.255	.284	24.4	19.2
240	65	Jackie Bradley Jr.	OF	.678	.751	.347	.299	27.3	22.1
246	66	Harrison Bader	OF	.662	.744	.332	.314	28.8	32.0
248	67	Corey Dickerson	OF	.871	.611	.303	.300	20.1	16.7
252	68	Victor Reyes	OF	.647	.651	.302	.317	21.9	21.1
261	69	Jason Heyward	OF	.716	.750	.362	.371	18.7	20.4
264	70	Adam Eaton	OF	.725	.631	.283	.291	16.2	18.2
265	71	Jarred Kelenic	OF
270	72	Willie Calhoun	OF	.812	.405	.214	.230	15.7	15.7
281	73	Hunter Renfroe	OF	.734	.710	.273	.293	31.2	26.6
288	74	Austin Hays	OF	.957	.632	.310	.282	17.3	18.7
295	75	Alex Kirilloff	OF
299	76	Stephen Piscotty	OF	.641	.630	.269	.284	21.4	31.0
301	77	Josh Naylor	1B,OF	.624	.538	.270	.300	22.9	11.5
305	78	Alex Dickerson	OF	.782	.897	.390	.346	22.1	17.6
310	79	Yasiel Puig	OF	.770				21.8
318	80	Cristian Pache	OF		.125				50.0
319	81	David Dahl	OF	.815	.414	.205	.227	26.6	28.3
331	82	Kevin Pillar	OF	.725	.766	.335	.312	13.8	18.4
332	83	Sam Hilliard	OF	.968	.645	.296	.257	26.4	36.8
348	84	Manuel Margot	OF	.698	.703	.296	.300	20.0	15.7
388	85	Jordan Luplow	OF	.880	.568	.289	.293	23.4	20.7
401	86	Jo Adell	OF		.328	.209	.222		41.7
409	87	Shogo Akiyama	OF		.566	.299	.309		18.6
411	88	Oscar Mercado	OF	.747	.336	.157	.190	17.4	29.0
433	89	Austin Slater	OF	.637	.928	.389	.401	30.7	21.2
435	90	Danny Santana	1B,OF	.881	.524	.226	.273	29.5	38.1
440	91	Trevor Larnach	OF

 

Tier One

All hail the new king of points, Juan Soto, first of his name. Soto is a generational talent and a five-category superstar in rotisserie but the 22-year-old's skill set is going to be particularly dominant in points. Because while his stolen base output may put keep him behind Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. in roto value, Soto's elite walk- and strikeout-rates (20.9% BB%/14.3% in 2020) more than make up the difference in points.

Soto was positively bonkers in 2020 slashed .351/.490/.695 over 196 PA, with 13 HR, 37 RBI, 39 runs, and six stolen bases, finishing with a 1.185 OPS, .478 wOBA, and 201 wRC+, scoring at a rate of 1.173 pts/pa. That wasn't just the highest per-PA scoring rate in baseball, it was over 8% higher than Freddie Freeman (1.083 pts/pa) in second place.

And it wasn't just the results that jumped off of the page, Soto upped his Statcast game even more than before:

All that red is nice and shiny but Soto's improvements are even more impressive at the upper end of his exit velocities. His Air% (100+ mph) jumped from the 92nd-percentile in 2019 to the 98th-percentile in 2020, while his Barrel% (86th-percentile in 2019) and Air% average exit velocity (93rd-percentile in 2019) were both in the 99th-percentile in 2020.

In other words:

via GIPHY

Let's get this out of the way first. Ronald Acuna Jr. may be ranked third overall but his value will be significantly lower (15-20ish) if you play under ESPN standard scoring, considering the full-point penalty for strikeouts and only earning one point per stolen base, as opposed to two-points on other platforms. It cannot be understated how much these two factors will contribute to Acuna's decreased value in other point systems - adjust accordingly.

Putting aside ESPN leagues, Acuna is a monster, albeit slightly less so than outside of points. While his 29.7% K% was up from 26.3% in 2019 (and 25.3% in 2018), Acuna's 18.8% BB% was a significant improvement from his previous career-rate of 10%. Considering his otherworldly exit velocities, a more patient Acuna can only be that much more dangerous; his 16.0% Brl% was in the 95th-percentile, with a 100.7 mph Air% average exit velocity and 57.1% Air% (100+ mph) were both in the 99th-percentile.

Poor Mike Trout, all the way down to number-six overall. Wow, looks like the decline has come fast for the former GOAT. Or, Trout remains one of the most consistent players in fantasy baseball, regardless of format. He just doesn't have the same ceiling as he's had in past seasons and that's okay. It really is.

Trout averaged 1.028 pts/pa in 2018, 1.058 pts/pa in 2019, and .967 pts/pa last year. Even projecting him at .940 pts/pa for 650 PA, Trout is an easy top-10 hitter and is one of the safest bets you can make.

Over the course of a polarizing career, Bryce Harper has been overrated, underrated, and everywhere in between. The worm has turned again in 2021 and the (somehow still only) 28-year-old Harper seems to now be properly rated in roto, clocking in with a 21 ADP on NFBC. But like a poor-man's Juan Soto (who is still crazy rich), Harper combines consistent power and quality contact with elite plate discipline, posting a 20.1 BB% and 17.6% BB% in 2020, with a .435 xwOBA and .486 xwOBAcon.

Harper has also been an elite compiler of plate-appearances and has seemingly shed any "injury-prone" labels pinned on him in his early career. He played in 58-of-60 games in 2020 and reached at least 627 PA in four of his previous five seasons. Playing his home games in a bandbox and hitting in the middle of a strong supporting cast, Harper is first-round production available at the back of the second.

I'm not down Mookie Betts (I mean, he's still in the overall top-10) but do think he carries more variance then the other elite outfielders in front of him. For one, even though Betts has crossed 700 PA in three of the past four years, I worry the depth of the Dodgers makes it more likely that he is in the 670-680 PA range.

And in terms of his bat, I'm not saying there are red flags. But some very light pink, here and there, in his exit velocities and expected-stats? Well...

His rate of .065 HR per-PA was a career-high but his top-end exit velocities have seen a decline since spiking in 2018:

	2017	2018	2019	2020
HR per-PA	.034	.052	.041	.065
Barrel%	5.2	14.9	10.9	7.9
Air% Average EV (mph)	89.6	95.6	93.9	91.2
Air% (100+ mph)	25.7	37.3	31.2	26.6
Top-5% Average EV	108.4	108.0	107.2	106.9
Next-20% Average EV	102.6	103.4	103.0	102.3

And the .383 wOBA and .421 wOBAcon both jump off the page but Betts had a .349 xwOBA that was 34-points lower and a .375 xwOBA on-contact that was 56-points lower:

	2017	2018	2019	2020
wOBA	.339	.449	.380	.383
xwOBA	.351	.440	.414	.349
wOBAcon	.342	.498	.399	.421
xwOBAcon	.358	.484	.446	.375

Let's be honest, though; Betts is a top-tier player hitting at the top of one of baseball's best lineups. He's going to be just fine. But you have to pick some nits when trying to separate first-rounders and Betts has a few more than the guys above him.

 

Tier Two

Slashing .205/.356/.430 in 2020 after being a consensus top-five draft pick, Christian Yelich was a bust in roto. And in point leagues, Yelich was so bad that he finished as only the fourth-best outfielder in our generic point system. Yeah, he sure was awful, alright. The .205 AVG was a killer to roto rosters everywhere but a career-high 18.6% BB% helped buoy his value in most scoring systems. Getting Yelich towards the end of the 1st round/beginning of the 2nd seems like a fair value but one that still carries top-five upside if he was to put it all together again.

You can basically run everything above back around for Cody Bellinger, who was drafted in the top-five but sank his roto teams with a .239 AVG over 243 PA. He was still a bust in point leagues, finishing as the OF 16, putting up the same level of points as Eddie Rosario and Teoscar Hernandez. Not bad but not what you want out of a first-rounder.

Bellinger has a similar upside to Yelich but with a far lower floor. Plus, he has an annoying habit of only putting up elite numbers in odd years. Hopefully, that bodes well for 2021 but I'd prefer more certainty in my early picks:

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	ISO	AVG	wOBA	xwOBA	xwOBA contact	wRC+
2017	548	39	87	97	10	.315	.267	.380	.369	.483	138
2018	632	25	84	76	14	.210	.260	.345	.332	.400	120
2019	660	47	121	115	15	.324	.305	.415	.437	.498	162
2020	243	12	33	30	6	.216	.239	.332	.360	.394	114

The thing about Marcell Ozuna is that 2020 wasn't a fluke. I bet big on Ozuna last season and don't expect to see a lot less in 2021 after he finished as the highest-scoring outfielder in 2020 and the number-six scorer overall. I'm not expecting him to reach those heights again and his value could take a hit if he doesn't return to a cushy lineup spot in Atlanta hitting behind two of baseball's best hitters.

Putting that aside, the bat is for real and it has been for a while. Broken fingers may have limited Ozuna to a career-low  .241 AVG in 2019 but his lasers keep getting hit harder, and harder:

Percentile Ranks	2017	2018	2019	2020
Barrel%	74	73	85	94
Air% Average EV (mph)	92	70	94	95
Air% (100+ mph)	96	89	95	93
Top-5% Average EV	95	96	89	93
Next-20% Average EV	97	95	85	94

Everyone else can have the hype and flash of Luis Robert, give me Eloy Jimenez, all day, every day. Jimenez averaged .81 pts/PA in 2020, with a .367 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) and a .472 wOBAcon (.455 xwOBAcon), hitting 14 home runs in 226 PA and matching the same rate of .062 HR per-PA as he did in 2019. And his exit velocities portend more power in the future, with his Air% (100+ mph) jumping to 55.7%, up from 45.5% in his rookie year.

There might not be another player in the top-50 who has a better chance than Kyle Tucker of making the leap to top-10 production in 2021. Tucker finished as a top-30 scorer overall in 2020, scoring at a rate of .90 pts/PA, with a .349 wOBA. After playing in 58-of-60 games last year, it looks like the Astros are finally committed to Tucker in a full-time role. If Tucker approaches 650 PA, his skill-set will make him elite under most formats.

From a current Astro to a former one, George Springer flew north this winter and has landed atop what is looking to be one of baseball's most exciting offenses. Springer is set to bat leadoff for Toronto, setting the table for the legacy trilogy and Teoscar Hernandez. Already one of the most consistent scorers in points, Springer is set to far exceed his draft price, yet again.

	2017	2018	2019	2020
Point per-PA	.859	.741	.956	.867

 

Tier Three

Let's start the tier off with former St. Louis Cardinal and current electric superstar, Randy Arozarena, who has scored at the astronomical rates of .957 pts/PA in 2019 and 1.054 pts/PA in 2020. Crazy, right? The catch is, is that those "seasons" consisted of just 23 PA and 76 PA. Though Arozarena did get another 86 PA over the course of an electric playoff run, hitting 10 home runs and posting a 1.273 OPS.

I don't think Arozarena is going to hit like the best player in baseball over the course of a full season. But Arozarena has run and crushed at virtually every stop he's made since playing his first full year in the states, consistently posting combined rates that translate to 20+ HR and 25+ SB over a full season.

No, seriously...All he's ever done is run and crush:

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	SB	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2017	STL (A+)	70	295	8	10	.196	.275	.333	.472	.368	134
2017	STL (AA)	51	195	3	8	.129	.252	.366	.380	.347	115
2018	STL (AA)	24	102	7	9	.286	.396	.455	.681	.496	211
2018	STL (AAA)	89	311	5	17	.116	.232	.328	.348	.310	81
2019	STL (AA)	28	116	3	8	.206	.309	.422	.515	.416	162
2019	STL (AAA)	64	283	12	9	.236	.358	.435	.593	.432	151
2019	Cardinals	19	23	1	2	.200	.300	.391	.500	.380	138
2020	Rays	23	76	7	4	.359	.281	.382	.641	.422	176
2020	Playoffs	20	86	10	0	.455	.377	.442	.831	.515	239

Even when he was at his "worst", slashing .232/.328/.348 during his first crack at Triple-A, Arozarena still hit five home runs, with 17 SB over 311 PA.  Maybe we should just stop doubting all the evidence in front of us and realize that Randy Arozarena is the electric Cuban superstar we've been waiting for, not that whiffer up in Chicago.

Even in leagues that don't penalize strikeouts, Luis Robert just doesn't profile great in points. Putting aside his 32.2% K% and 22.1% SwStr%, Robert's .233 AVG did an excellent imitation of a .226 xBA, as did his .311 wOBA and .315 xwOBA. In roto, Robert makes up value by virtue of his speed. But that's not enough to carry you in points and Robert's price is far higher than I'd be willing to pay.

Going by where he's been available in my first drafts this offseason, it looks like I may roster Mike Yastrzemski on 100% of my teams, whether roto, points or anything else. For one, he should pile up plate-appearance while leading off every day for a Giants offense that shouldn't be horrible.

But putting aside his 150-ish draft price and what could be something approaching 700 PA, Yastrzemski hasn't precisely been a slap-hitter since hitting the big leagues.

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2019	107	411	21	64	55	2	.245	.272	.334	.518	.353	120
2020	54	225	10	39	35	2	.271	.297	.400	.568	.407	159
Career	161	636	31	103	90	4	.254	.281	.357	.535	.372	134

Maybe it's still a small sample but Yastrzemski has now played a combined full season in his first two years. Just how ga-ga would we go over someone who put up these 161-game totals in their rookie year? At a minimum, I'm guessing it'd be super ga-ga.

Regardless of where he eventually signs*, Eddie Rosario will be a cuddly and comforting blanket of points goodness in 2021, putting up unassuming numbers that return a consistent profit, year after year:

	2017	2018	2019	2020
Points per-PA	.778	.764	.826	.820

We may have seen the best of Rosario's power, with his Air% average exit velocity and Air% (100+ mph) both dropping to career-lows in 2020 but has the type of low-strikeout, high contact profile that can thrive in points, even as home runs decline.

*Hey! He just signed with Cleveland, where he's set to bat behind Jose Ramirez. My opinion on Rosario has changed 0%.

Believing he may be an injury Beetlejuice, only getting injured after you've said his name too many times, I hesitate to even mention Byron Buxton. So let's whisper. Buxton hit 13 home runs in 135 PA, with his .096 hr/pa leading all hitters. All of them! And this power surge doesn't look like a small-sample blip, as Buxton saw big jumps in all of the exit velocities that matter:

	2017	2018	2019	2020
HR per-PA	.031	.000	.034	.096
Barrel%	6.7	1.8	8.8	13.7
Avg EV (Air%)	93.1	90.0	93.3	96.5
Air% (100+ mph)	24.8	26.9	38.3	48.9

Now please, for the sake of his precious health, no one mention his name again for the next eight months.

 

Tier Four

Last chance to get on the Anthony Santander train, at least north of a 150 ADP. Before having his season ended by an oblique strain, Santander was breaking out in 2020, slashing .261/.315/.575 and hitting 11 home runs over 165 PA, good for a rate of .067 HR per-PA. And that power isn't a big surprise after Santander hit 20 HR in 93 games in 2019 after getting called up from Triple-A in early June.

In his 570 PA between 2019-2020, Santander has combined for:

31 HR - 70 R - 91 RBI - 1 SB - .261 AVG

Santander is projected for over 600 PA by the BAT, Depth Charts, and Steamer, with ATC projecting 590 PA. Those are pretty likely projecting considering he's seemingly locked into the number three spot in the lineup, with virtually no competition for playing time. Plus, he'll play 80 games in a bandbox of a home ballpark with another 30 games coming at noted hitting venues Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, and the Rogers Centre. What if I were to tell you that you could get 30+ HR and a sub-20% K% after pick-150...Is that something you might be interested in?

We're going back-to-back with outfielders who are coming at big discount after having their seasons prematurely ended by oblique issues. Jorge Soler had only a .228 AVG in 174 PA, hitting eight home runs, with a 34.5% K%. Soler's home run rate dropped from an absurd .071 hr/pa in 2019, to .046 hr/pa in 2020, with his Air% average exit velocity dropping from 97.4 mph (99th-percentile) to 92.6 mph (74th-percentile). But digging deeper into his exit velocities of balls hit in the air, things aren't as dire. Santander's Brl% stayed steady at around 18.0% (99th-percentile in 2019 and  his Air% (100+mph) saw a significant jump, moving from 45.7% (96th-percentile) in 2019, to 61.7% (100th-percentile) in 2020.

After breaking out in 2019 following his trade to the Rays, Austin Meadows went back to his Pirates roots and had a no good, rotten season in 2020, slashing .205/.296/.371, with a .667 OPS and .287 wOBA.

And Statcast judged him even harsher:

Season	PA	HR	HR/PA	K%	ISO	AVG	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	xwOBAcon
2018	191	6	.031	20.9	.174	.287	.268	.332	.320	.387
2019	591	33	.056	22.2	.268	.291	.286	.380	.379	.461
2020	152	4	.026	32.9	.167	.205	.182	.287	.263	.329

Even more concerning than the above, at least in terms of his fantasy value, is how he has struggled more and more against lefthanders. Because when you play on a team as platoon-happy as Tampa Bay, any whiff of handedness issues will send you to the pine in a hurry.

The following should worry anyone who rosters Meadows in 2021 on the assumption of a full-time role:

	wOBA		OPS		K%
	vs LHP	vs RHP	vs LHP	vs RHP	vs LHP	vs RHP
2018	.389	.297	.921	.707	22.5	20.0
2019	.346	.394	.837	.960	29.9	18.8
2020	.184	.331	.391	.766	36.6	31.5

The fact that Trey Mancini is apparently healthy enough to go to Spring Training with no restrictions, is amazing news, in and of itself. But some fantasy players haven't forgotten how good Mancini was in points prior to missing the 2020 season, averaging .83 points per-PA and finishing as the 32nd-highest score in 2019. Set to bat cleanup behind the aforementioned Santander and playing in the aforementioned bandbox known as Camden Yards, Mancini is easy money at his current price.

 

Tier Five

Dylan Carlson averaged .574 pts/PA in his first 119 PA in the major leagues, slashing .200/.252/.364, with three home runs, a .264 wOBA, and a 29.4% K%. It's not that I don't think the future can be bright for the Cardinals top prospect, I just don't it's coming as fast as the people drafting seem to think it is. With no guarantee to reach 550 PA, there's too much risk in using a top-140 pick on a rookie with plate-discipline issues

Jesse Winker hit 12 home runs in 183 PA, posting a .389 wOBA that was in the top-8% of the league, along with a .383 xwOBA that were both in the top-5%. And yet, still, no one believes in Winker, with the Reds outfielder coming in north of a 200 ADP.

The  .844 pts/pa that Winker scored in 2020 was a career-high but carrying a high rate of scoring is nothing new:

	2017	2018	2019	2020
Points per-PA	.810	.723	.729	.844

Now in Washington, former Cub Kyle Schwarber hasn't been as awful in points as you'd normally expect from someone who has such a high strikeout-rate, posting a scoring rate of .74 pts/pa in 2018 and .81 pts/pa in 2019. He dipped to career-low .66 pts/pa in 2020, with a dismal .188 AVG and 29.5% K%, while also seeing drops in his usually elite exit velocities and barrels. Schwarber's Brl% went from the 95th-percentile in 2019 to the 77th in 2020, while his Air% (100+ mph) dropped from the 98th-percentile to the 74th.

More worrisome is how committed the Nationals will be to committing playing him every day, considering his defensive limitations and .287 wOBA against LHP for his career. If you roster Kyle Schwarber, how likely are you to start him versus lefties? His 200 ADP still makes him ripe for value in leagues with daily moves but for those without, make sure to bake in the weeks where you'll have to sit him because of a schedule filled with left-handers.

 

Tiers Six and Seven

There is so much about Victor Reyes that I like. He had a mini-breakout in 2020, slashing .277/.315/.391 over 213 PA, hitting four home runs, with eight stolen bases, and is set to bat leadoff in 2020. And while he'll never be confused for a power hitter, there have seen notable increases in Reyes' power-related exit velocities, while his home run rate has doubled each of the past two seasons. Granted, it's easy to double-up when starting at .005 hr/pa, but still.

	2018	2019	2020
Points per-PA	.546	.647	.651
HR per-PA	.005	.010	.019
Barrel%	3.3	2.0	3.9
Avg EV (Air%)	87.3	85.7	91.3
Air% (100+ mph)	14.3	13.8	17.5
Top-5% Average EV	103.2	105.9	106.3
Next-20% Average EV	98.3	99.8	100.9
Average Launch Angle	6.4	9.1	10.6

What's worrisome about Reyes is whether his issues versus right-handed pitching. Because if the switch-hitter starts losing playing time versus RHP, and/or gets moved down the order, his value will drop significantly. And that's the fear baked into my projections, thinking 550 PA is more likely than 625+ PA.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+	BB%	K%
vs RHP	.262	.288	.396	.685	.134	.295	83	2.4	22.9
vs LHP	.342	.419	.368	.787	.026	.356	125	11.6	14.0

As much as I believe in the future of Jarred Kelenic and think he'll score at an above-average rate right out of the gate, how much will Kelenic actually play in 2021? There is a near-zero chance that he makes the team out of spring training or is called up before the Super-Two deadline. And considering he only has 92 PA above High-A, I don't see it as a lock that he'll get called up immediately following the early-June deadline. That makes 350-400 PA the most likely outcome and that's just not enough for me to want to stash.

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