Biggest Brl/BBE% Fallers from 2020

December 27, 2020

Eric Samulski identifies the biggest fallers in barrel rate from 2020 to determine which hitters are bounce-back candidates for fantasy baseball.

Last week, I discussed the importance of the Brl/BBE% and examined some players who had improved the most in the shortened 2019 season. If you haven't yet taken a look at that, I would encourage you to because I also gave a detailed breakdown of why I like this particular stat.

However, if you simply don't have time, the short version is: "Only the best hitters are the ones that [find the barrel] regularly, and when you notice somebody beginning to do it more consistently, it's usually time to take notice." However, "hitting the ball on the barrel consistently is a challenging skill at any level," so we shouldn't over-react when normally strong hitters see decreases, especially in a shortened season that didn't give ample time for players to correct mechanical flaws or simply hit their way out of slumps.

Below you'll find a table of the "leaders" in decreased barrel rate, meaning, basically, the guys who "lost" the barrel at the highest rate in 2020. Keep in mind the low overall number of Batted Ball Events (BBE), so you don't want to read too much into this; however, after the table, I've done deeper dives into a few of the most intriguing names on this list.

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Barrel Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo, OF Texas Rangers (ADP: 177)

Here is an interesting note: Gallo led the league in the biggest drop in Brl/BBE%, and yet, he STILL finished in the top-10% and his 14% Brl/BBE% was good for the 27th-best in Major League Baseball. In fact, much of Gallo's profile looks like a total aberration from what's he's done in the past. He put up career lows in barrel%, exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, and BB% to name more than a few. Basically, every complaint anybody has ever had about Gallo in the past, 2020 was an exaggerated version of that complaint.

Now, you can choose to believe that the 57 game sample size is a sign of decline or you can believe, as I do, that a 27-year-old who had just shown peak levels of performance the year before simply flopped in a pandemic-impacted baseball season. Gallo has talked at length about the swing changes he made during the 2019 season and nothing indicates that it was a planned approach to up his launch angle 4-degrees higher than his career rate or jump his FB% up to 55%. Even his HR/FB% dropped from an average of 31.7% over the last three years to 16.7% last year. All of this just feels like a massive fluke to me; there is no reason for any of these metrics to have changed this drastically; yet, we're all now drafting Gallo as if he's "lost it."

I would draft him as if 2020 had never happened. If you were willing to deal with his low batting average in years past as you chased the power output, I think you can safely do so again.

Yandy Diaz, 3B Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 395)

Remember when people tried to make him a thing last year? It's just another example that we can't wish improvements on a player: "If he just raises his launch angle..." If a player hasn't given you any indication that he is making a change, don't assume they are going to make a change.

Carlos Correa, SS Houston Astros  (ADP: 122)

I'm not going to make a trash can comment here, but, let's just say, it wasn't a great season for Correa. The 26-year-old put together a .264/.326/.383 triple-slash with 5 HR and 25 RBI in 58 games. His BB% dropped from a career 10.5% to 7.2% and his power-metrics cratered. His ISO, xSLG, and HR/FB% all went back to 2018 levels even though his exit velocity stayed at a relatively mediocre 88.6 MPH (45th-percentile). However, a look under the hood suggests that, much like Gallo, Correa's 2020 may have been a bit of a shortened-season anomaly.

His LD% came in at 20.9%, close to the rate we loved from his breakout 2019; yet his GB% jumped 10% and his FB% dropped 10% despite four straight seasons of increase. A player doesn't increase his FB% steadily for four straight years only to decide to drastically move in the other direction intentionally. Also, you simply don't see players drop their FB% by that much but also increase their infield fly ball rate by 13%. Correa's 22.2% infield fly ball rate is astronomical. It all screams fluke.

Unless you really want to buy into the trash can narrative, the best I can come up with is that Correa simply never got comfortable in a short season. He hit .300 over the first half of the season, but the power was just never there with only 3 HR and 16 RBI. He still made the same amount of contact; it simply wasn't good contact. Then he likely started pressing. His BB% fell, his Swing% increased, his O-Swing% increased, and his batting average sunk to .228 in the second half with only 2 HRs. Now, Correa may never truly breakout in the way we've always hoped, but he's just entering his prime years, and I'm prepared to write 2020 off and approach him the same way I did after the 2019 season, as a solid middle-round SS but not somebody that is going to challenge Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Corey Seager. However, at this price, he doesn't have to.

Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS New York Yankees (ADP: 67)

When I look at Torres' numbers, I see a young player who simply struggled to find the right level of adjustments. After a massive 2019 season, Gleyber lowered his launch angle three degrees, decreased his K% to a career-low 17.5%, and increased his BB% to an impressive 13.8%. Those are great adjustments; however, he seems to have gone too far with his increased patience.

Seeing a 9.5% drop in O-Swing% is great, but the other changes are not as appealing. Torres had a 10% drop in overall Swing% and a nearly 9% drop in first-pitch strike swing percentage. What it says to me is that instead of improving his eye, Torres simply forced himself to be more patient, getting deeper into counts but also potentially allowing good pitches to sail past. That could also explain why he suddenly had a .198 xBA against breaking pitches after having a .240 xBA the season before. By getting into deeper counts, he was seeing sharper breaking pitches and putting himself in a position where he needed to swing at them. His increased patience would also explain the drop in barrel rate as his overall pitch selection seemed to lead to less advantageous counts.

To add to that, he also seemed to overthink his approach to dealing with the shift. In 2020, defenses shifted against Torres a career-high 38.1% of the time, and he had a wOBA of .260 with the shift as compared to .358 without the shift. However, he had a wOBA of .327 against the shift in 2018 and .370 against it in 2019, so what changed?

Well, for starters, it seems that he tried to hit away from it more, dropping his Pull% by almost six points. However, his FB% and LD% also dropped, and his GB% increased, which led to a drastic drop in ISO and xSLG. He still made a similar amount of solid contact but most of it was Med% instead of Hard%, likely due to the approach change.

For me, this all screams a 24-year-old trying to adjust in order to sustain production at the Major League level. In a normal-length season, he likely would have corrected his adjustments and found a happy medium; instead, he never got the chance. I expect him to iron it out in 2020 and would be drafting him with confidence.

Yoan Moncada, 3B Chicago White Sox  (ADP: 85)

Moncada is another player I'm not overly concerned with, but I'm not as optimistic about a return to 2019 levels as I was with Gleyber Torres. While many saw Moncada's 2019 as a sign of a breakthrough for a young player, I think it's equally as likely that it was a best-case scenario season. His batting average jumped .080 points in 2019, fueled by a .406 BABIP, and he had a .150 increase in SLG despite pulling the ball less and raising his GB% by 5%.

In 2019, Moncada got more aggressive, raising his O-Swing by almost 10% while increasing his first pitch swing by 6% and his overall swing% by 6%. He also simply stung the ball, hitting more barrels and with a higher average exit velocity despite only barely raising his Hard% and decreasing his Solid%.

However, in 2020 Moncada seemed less aggressive, perhaps as a result of the unusual season. His Swing% dropped almost 5% and his first-pitch swing % dropped nearly 9%, so even though his Zone Contact% went up, he made weaker contact perhaps because he was getting into worse counts. Yet, we shouldn't over-react. Many of the poor results seem like short season anomalies: he got under the ball 9% more, hit 13.2% more infield fly balls, and saw more pitches which Statcast deemed "meatballs" yet somehow swung at fewer of them than in years past. This could be the result of an overly patient approach that led to a 12.1% BB% but also a 31.2% K%.

To me, it seems like a young hitter who was in his own head a bit and getting some outlier contact results based on a poor approach at the plate. I don't expect Moncada to hit like this next year; however, I also believe that 2019 was an outlier as well. I would draft him based on expecting something in the middle, perhaps a .250 hitter with 20 HR power, 10 SB speed, and a good chance for RBI and Runs in a solid lineup.

Anthony Rendon, 3B Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 44)

I put Rendon on here just to insist you not worry about him. Many of his underlying metrics were just below where they've been in years past, and he was on a brand new team with a screwed up offseason and season. I expect him to be just fine.

Ketel Marte, 2B/SS Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 75)

OK, now we get to a hitter I'm not as confident in. Ketel helped propel me to a 2nd place finish in 2019, so I have a soft spot in my heart for him, but I'm a little wary heading into this season. For starters, I think it's pretty clear that the 32 HR power was a bit flukey.

He rode a six-degree change in launch angle to a massive spike in xSLG despite only raising his exit velocity from 88.8mph to 90 mph and increasing his Hard Hit% by just under 6%. Now, those are clear improvements and, when paired with his increased Pull% and FB%, show a clear change in approach. However, that's not enough to go from hitting 14 HRs to 32 HR on a consistent basis.

Now, part of why I'm not a believer in the repeatability of 2019 Ketel Marte is due to his inability to sustain the increased launch angle.

It's also a small sample size, so I don't want to overreact too much. But he also produced results in 2020 that were similar to pre-2019 Ketel Marte. His exit velocity remained at 89 mph; his xBA was .265; his Pull% was back around 40%; his GB% went back up, and his Hard % went down over 6%. That isn't to say he's a bad hitter, and I think his 2020 results were worse than he earned. He still had a Hard Hit% higher than he did in 2019, and his 3.8% HR/FB ratio is suspiciously low, but this is not the profile of a 30+ HR hitter. Even his 9.3% barrel rate from 2019 was not indicative of that much power.

It's far more likely that Marte settles in as a .270 hitter with 20 HR power and a high contact rate, but it's just in a lineup that is not looking particularly strong at the moment, which will limit his value in counting stats.

Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS/OF (ADP: 139)

I don't know where Villar will end up, but we need to stop doing this to ourselves. Yes, he has speed, but the 24 HR in 2019 were a one-time thing and it's likely we don't see the .270 average again either. His Statcast profile last year was abysmal.

But his career has also been filled with bottom 10% finishes in multiple underlying metrics. This table goes from 2015 to 2020 as it descends. None of those seasons is particularly appealing.

Yet we keep drafting Villar high because of his speed. This is a friendly warning: if he signs somewhere where he gets a starting opportunity, don't get overly excited.

Javier Baez, 2B/SS Chicago Cubs (ADP: 66)

I actually think this is a buying opportunity for Baez. His surface-level results were poor, but his underlying metrics suggest a lot of similarity to 2019 and even some improvements. For one, his GB% and FB% were relatively similar to years past, his average exit velocity was not far off his career levels, and his Hard% was just below 2019. To add to the optimism, he also lowered his O-Swing%, increased his Solid contact % and his Pull%; although, perhaps a bit too much on the Pull%.

Much like Torres, Baez had a much lower first-pitch swing% than years past (almost 10%) and had an unlikely 11.5% increase in infield fly ball rate. Nothing about Baez's poor season seems linked to any noticeable changes or scary trends, so I'm buying into a full bounceback. I expect another 30 HR, 10-15 SB season with maybe a slight dip to a .270 average and a chance for good RBI and Run totals in that offense. Considering that's only nine spots higher than where Ketel Marte is going right now (and later than our last entry on this list), I feel really good about that value.

Cavan Biggio, 2B Toronto Blue Jays  (ADP: 54)

No. I'm sorry, but no. I can not get on board with Biggio at this price. I understand that his dad is a Hall of Famer, and he has an absurd 92nd-percentile walk rate with a hint at a power-speed combo, but there just isn't enough in the profile for me to come close to this price.

Let's start with the barrels: 5% is not good; it was 27th-percentile in Major League Baseball. It's really not good when paired with a 26th-percentile exit velocity, 13th-percentile Hard Hit%, and .215 xBA. His 16.7-degree launch angle is likely still too high, and even though it was an improvement from 2019, it still led to a 7.8% infield fly ball rate. However, we can see a clear approach shift as Biggio had an 11.7% infield hit rate and clearly tried to hit the ball on the ground more last year, jumping his GB% from 25.4% to 38.2%. So if he's lowering his launch angle, decreasing his FB%, and hitting the ball on the ground more, I don't think you're going to see the power outburst he showed in 2019. Especially not with his contact metrics.

That means you're looking at a contact-first, high-BB% hitter with above-average speed who has only hit above .250 twice over the last five years, regardless of level. Biggio is not a slow runner, but he has 72nd-percentile speed and steals bases more on instinct and intelligence than pure foot speed. He's not likely to get more than 15-20 in an MLB season. So we're looking at a .240 hitter with 10 HR, 15 SB, and a strong on-base percentage. How is that a top-60 player going ahead of Baez? I just don't get it.

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