RADIO
The playoffs are here. The work you've been putting in over the past 14-plus weeks has gotten you to this point, and now is the time to bring it home. For that, you'll need the right defense.
Yes, having a guy like Christian McCaffrey coming back or Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback helps a little bit, but people are constantly overlooking the defense slot in their lineups, which I'm here to urge you not to do. When everything is on the line, every single point counts and many of us are leaving points on the wire in exchange for the ease of just sticking with what we know or what has been good for us up until now.
There are some elite defensive units that we can all, for the most part, set and forget. The Saints, Steelers, Rams, and Ravens are really the only ones that come to mind, and even the Ravens spot there is predicated on them being healthy. After that, there are a handful of strong fantasy defenses that could be exposed in the wrong match-up. Since Week 8, the rest of the top-10 points per game for fantasy defenses includes Miami, Atlanta, Carolina, New York Giants, New England, and Indianapolis. I certainly wouldn't feel bad if I had one of those on my roster, but they don't give me the warm and fuzzy feeling of a locked-in option, so I'd encourage all of us to take a look at our waiver wire and see who might be out there to scoop up as a new option or perhaps to pair with a team that we already have.
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Playoff Streaming Defenses
If you haven't read my weekly tiered defense rankings then we should start off by simply talking about WHAT makes a good fantasy defense. We often think about defenses that can limit yardage or hold teams to low point totals, but those are often qualities of good real-life defenses and not always good fantasy defenses.
When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great, and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
NFL offenses have scored 9,452 points or 24.7 points per game so far this season, which, despite coming back to earth a little bit over the past couple of weeks, is the most through the first 13 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era. With offenses putting up these kinds of numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow since those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which defenses will get consistent pressure with blitzes or against a poor offensive line, and which defenses are more successful at creating turnover opportunities.
We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. However, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams. If you're on the fence with a DST choice, always lean with a better defense over a better match-up.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so it's often best to have two options on your roster during the playoffs and play the match-ups. I think the options below could give you a good chance to steal some extra points and propel you to a title.
Since we're talking about "streamers," we're only going to discuss defenses that are UNDER 60% rostered.
San Francisco 49ers Defense
(49% rostered)
Schedule: Washington, Dallas, Arizona
Yes, the 49ers just got torn apart on national television by Josh Allen, but I really think that can be more attributed to Allen simply being locked in than anything else. With games against Alex Smith and Andy Dalton coming up, I don't see Monday night's effort being repeated anytime soon. In fact, on the season, the Cowboys let up the 3rd most opponents to opposing defenses, while Washington comes in at 9th-most. These are both plus match-ups.
However, as I mentioned before, we can't simply rely on matchups; the defense has to be able to stand up on it's own and, unfortunately, San Francisco really hasn't done that this year. Let's start with the stats that I most care about: pressure rate, sacks, pass rush win rate, percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. The 49ers are below average in those areas. They rank 18th in pressure rate, 22nd in sacks, 24th in pass rush win rate, and 16th in drives ending in an offensive turnover. Now, the team has started to improve its plays overall since getting a bit healthier, but that hasn't led to much better fantasy performance as the 49ers rank as the 21st defense since Week 8. It turns out, losing Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Solomon Thomas hurts a team's ability to rush the passer and, without a pass rush, the 49ers zone coverage scheme can be a liability at times.
However, the team has still shown the ability to force turnovers, which makes them playable against both Dallas and Washington, especially with Antonio Gibson figuring to miss this weekend's game. I would view the 49ers as a defense closer to the back end of the top-10 though, and I wouldn't sit a premium defensive team for them. However, if you don't have a reliable option on the roster and need somebody to get you to the semi-finals or championship, I think the 49ers are a high floor option.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- Dolphins Defense (You can play SF against Washington and Dallas and then use Miami in the finals against Las Vegas)
- Browns Defense (sit the Browns this week against the Ravens and roll with SF but then bring the Browns back for games against both New York teams)
- Eagles Defense (sit the Eagles this week against the Saints and - maybe - next week against Arizona, but then use them in the finals when they play Dallas)
- Steelers Defense (I would personally play Pittsburgh over San Fran this weekend, but if you wanted to sit Pittsburgh for their game against Buffalo, SF could be a good one-week option).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense
(46% rostered)
Schedule: Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit
The Bucs are my favorite option on the list, and it has a large part to do with them being the most statistically impressive option. Yes, they have struggled of late, ranking as the 23rd best defense since Week 8, but they were also the 3rd ranked defense in Weeks 1-7, which we can't simply write off. On the season, they rank 4th in pressure rate, sixth in sacks, sixth in pass rush win rate, and 9th in drives ending in an offensive turnover. That means they can score you points by attacking weak offensive lines, dragging down quarterbacks who hold onto the ball for too long, or forces turnovers with teams trying to keep up with the Bucs offense. You simply don't find defenses that strong on the waiver wire.
It's important to note that those numbers are even with the downturn over the past few weeks. A downturn that I think has been overblown a little bit for fantasy purposes. Even in these "bad weeks," the only time Tampa has given you less than four fantasy points was their Week 9 shellacking against New Orleans. That means, even when Tampa has been bad, they're not losing you weeks. Considering the upside that they've shown, that makes them a pretty intriguing streamer.
In addition to getting tremendous pressure on the quarterback, which we know can lead to sacks and fantasy goodness, the Bucs remain the stingiest defense in the league against the run, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. That makes their Week 14 matchup against Minnesota and Dalvin Cook a little less daunting since we know that's how the Vikings want to move the ball. Minnesota gives up the 11th-most points to fantasy defenses, so teams are always in play against them, thanks in large part to ranking 17th in sacks allowed and 28th in drives ending in an offensive turnover.
Considering the Bucs are perfectly suited to stop the Vikings' biggest strength, I see this as a top-10 matchup for Tampa, and then they get a tasty championship matchup against a Detroit team that gives up the 8th most points to fantasy defenses. You just need to pair Tampa with a defense for Week 15.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- Bills Defense (Buffalo has a tough match-up with Pittsburgh this week, but then faces Denver and New England to end the season, which makes them a great partner for Tampa)
- 49ers Defense (if you want to go with two streaming defenses, you can play San Francisco in Week 15 against Dallas and then go back to Tampa in Week 16 when they face Detroit)
- Seahawks Defense (you may have scooped up Seattle for their games against the Jets and Washington but perhaps you want to bench them in Week 16 against the Rams. Having Tampa against Detroit would allow you to do that).
Cleveland Browns Defense
(38% rostered)
Schedule: Baltimore, New York Giants, New York Jets
The Browns are an interesting fantasy defense. They have a reputation as being a strong real-life defense, and they have some big named stars like Myles Garrett, so everybody assumes that will bring about fantasy goodness. Unfortunately, they are the 16th-ranked defense since Week 8 and have struggled in their two games without Denzel Ward. The good news for our purposes is that Ward should be back by Week 15, which is when we really want to think about streaming them.
First, let's talk about why the Browns are rostered in so few leagues. For starters, they rank 28th in pressure rate, 12th in sacks, and 14th in pass rush win rate, which just shows that they are not consistently getting after the quarterback. More time for opposing quarterbacks to throw has led to the Browns allowing the 18th-most yards per pass attempt and 29th-most passing touchdowns. Those are not good numbers. However, the Browns rank 2nd in the league in drives ending in an offensive turnover. That last number is crucial because it's one of the main reasons I have them on this list.
The Browns' lack of consistent pass rush is a knock against them, but those numbers are also skewed by Garrett having missed time in the middle of the season. The Browns should be more middle of the pack than 28th in pressure rate; however, turnovers are where they make their fantasy gold. That's good news against a Jets team that ranks 19th in offensive drives ending in a turnover and Giants offense that ranks 23rd. The New York teams are also tied for 26th in sacks allowed, which means that even a team with an inconsistent pass rush like Cleveland can still likely get into the backfield.
Considering the Browns were the 9th ranked fantasy defense through Week 11, I like them the 2nd-most on this list with Denzel Ward likely coming back this week or next. Again, this is a defense that will likely be a back-half of the top-10 unit (maybe sneaking into the top-5 against the Jets), so don't play them over your studs, but they make for a better option than most.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- 49ers Defense, Seahawks Defense, Washington Defense, Panthers Defense (any team that has a good Week 14 matchup but maybe suspect matchups for the following two weeks).
Philadelphia Eagles Defense
(28% rostered)
Schedule: New Orleans, Arizona, Dallas
Many people are down on the Eagles as a whole because their offense has looked like a trainwreck of late, but that's a mistake because that would mean overlooking what has been a solid defense that has ranked 12th overall in fantasy since Week 8. The Eagles' defense is essentially the opposite of the Browns. Their pressure rates are electric, but they are brutal in forcing turnovers. They rank 6th in pressure rate, 2nd in sacks, 7th in pass rush win rate, and 31st in drives ending in an offensive turnover. To add to that, they are ninth-best in yards allowed per play, so they don't really get beaten too badly. In fact, they were able to finish as a top-1o defensive unit last week against a Packers offense that has held opposing fantasy DSTs to an average finish of 30th. That's not a bad look.
However, considering both the Saints and Cardinals are top-10 in sacks allowed, they don't present the best matchups for an Eagles defense that has its most value when they can get after the passer. Additionally, since their offense has continued to put them in bad situations that have limited their ceiling as a fantasy defense, I wouldn't touch them in Week 14 against a tough New Orleans squad. However, Arizona is in play. Kyler Murray is clearly not healthy, and the Cardinals have been a shell of themselves in the last few weeks. They have also given up two or more sacks in each of the last four weeks, so it's not as if nobody is getting to Murray.
Where the Eagles get their most value is from a Week 16 Championship Week showdown with a Cowboys team that just lost Zack Martin for the season and gives up the 3rd-most points per game to fantasy defenses. If you have a strong unit or a team that has great match-ups in the first two weeks, the Eagles could make for a great fantasy streamer to help you get across the finish line.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- 49ers Defense (Washington and Dallas are great opponents but you can avoid Arizona by using the Eagles in Week 16)
- Rams Defense (the Rams are an elite defense but you may want to avoid their Week 16 showdown with Seattle)
- Seahawks Defense (the Seahawks also have solid matchups the next two weeks but a tough one with the Rams in the championship).
Washington Football Team Defense
(24% rostered)
Schedule: San Francisco, Seattle, Carolina
Washington may have jumped back on people's radars with their performance against Pittsburgh on Monday night, but this is a defense that has been doing good work all season. They rank 20th in pressure rate, 4th in sacks, and 4th in pass rush win rate, which means those big names you hear about like Chase Young are absolutely getting the job done. They were the 7th best defense in the first half of the season, but have since fallen to 14th in the second half; worse but still usable in the right matchups.
That part about "the right matchups" is crucial. Week 14 is certainly the right matchup. Washington is only 22nd in drives ending in an offensive turnover, so they need to be able to get after the quarterback in order to earn fantasy points. Considering they are 10th-best in yards per carry defense, they have a good chance of containing the 49ers running game enough to force Nick Mullens to air it out. That's when the San Francisco offensive line that is 19th in sacks allowed may open up scoring chances for the Washington defense.
That pass rush is also why Washington isn't totally out of the conversation against a Seattle offense that is 30th in sacks allowed. With Seattle now slowing down the tempo and getting Chris Carson and the running game more involved, this offense isn't as explosive, and Washington could put up a solid floor performance; although, I would certainly be looking for a better option that week.
I'd also look for a better option against a Panthers team that allows an average opposing defense finish of 20th. So basically, I'm saying you can stream Washington this week and then, likely, get rid of them and have another defense take you home.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- Bills Defense (you avoid the Steelers game but get Buffalo versus Denver and New England)
- Ravens Defense (perhaps you don't want to play Baltimore against a solid Browns team, but you can then run them back out in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Jaguars and Giants)
- Dolphins Defense (you don't really want to use the Dolphins against the Chiefs, but you could turn back to them against the Patriots and Raiders for the final two weeks).
Arizona Cardinals Defense
(20% rostered)
Schedule: Giants, Eagles, 49ers
Perhaps nobody on this list has a more attractive final three games than the Cardinals. Each of their three opponents ranks in the bottom-10 in points given up to fantasy defenses, meaning they are teams we want to attack. However, remember, there is only so much weight you should put into the matchup. The defense still needs to deliver, and the Cardinals have been inconsistent with that. In fact, they seem to have gotten worse as the season has gone on, ranking 28th overall since Week 8 after finishing as the seventh-best defense during the first half of the season. Obviously, a big part of that is the loss of Chandler Jones for the season back in the middle of October.
There is still talent left on the Cardinals defense and the unit as a whole ranks 8th in pressure rate, 14th in sacks, 15th in pass rush win rate, and 23rd in drives ending in an offensive turnover. The first three numbers and solid and can certainly be put to good use against their three opponents who rank 26th, 32nd, and 19th in sacks allowed, respectively. All three of those offenses also rank 23rd or worst in offensive drives ending in a turnover, so even though that isn't a strength of the Cardinals' defense, they may find themselves with a few more opportunities than usual.
Overall, the Cardinals' pressure rate and schedule make me intrigued by them as a streaming defense. Their inconsistency puts them near the back-half of the top-10 for me, so don't go cutting a strong defense for them, but I'm especially interested in Weeks 14 and 15 as the Giants allow the 7th most points on average to opposing defenses while the Eagles allow the 3rd. If Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle are back in Week 16 I may look for another opponent to pair with Arizona if you make it to the championship.
IDEAL PAIRING:
- Bucs Defense (another way to go with two streaming defenses. You can play the matchups between the two and start Tampa in Week 16 against Detroit rather than Arizona against a potentially healthy 49ers team)
- Browns Defense (another pairing on this list. The Browns play the Jets in Week 16, so you'd love to have them to balance out Arizona)
- Eagles Defense (a final option from this list. Play the matchups between the two and use Philadelphia versus Dallas in Week 16).
- Panthers Defense (this is more for deep leagues. Arizona has solid matchups the next two weeks and then you can play Carolina versus Washington in Week 16)
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