Projecting Power in 2021: Early ADP Air% Exit Velocity

Using changes in exit velocity on balls hit in the air, Nicklaus Gaut looks back on the 2020 MLB season to project 2021 power for players currently being taken in the first five rounds according to the latest ADP.

Looking at average exit velocity to project future power is not very useful compared to looking only at balls hit in the air. Because who cares how hard ground balls are hit? However, it can be even more useful to parse out those velocities into more refined bins and cast a more critical eye to the upper echelons of EV.

Last time on "Projecting Power in 2021", we honed in on the percent of balls a player hit in the air that had an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater, taking a closer look at the players in the elite tiers in 2020. Why 100 mph? Is there really that big of a difference between that and the 95 mph threshold that Hard Hit% uses? Well, since StatCast came online in 2015, 7.8% of balls hit in the air between 95 - 99 mph have resulted in a home run. And balls hit in the air at 100 mph or more? 28.7%

The above numbers are much more descriptive than predictive but it does help illustrate the simple point that hitting the ball in the air over 100 mph gives you a really good shot of leaving the yard. This time out we'll focus on the players being taken around the first five rounds for a 12-team league that saw a decline in their home run rates from 2019 to 2020 and look at their Air% exit velocities to see who might have more trouble ahead.

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Methodology, Terms, and Conditions

In order to sort things to a more relevant and fantasy-friendly player pool, the following conditions have been set:

• minimum of 40 batted-ball events in 2020 and 100 bbe in 2019
• minimum of 5% drop in home run per-plate appearance rate between 2019 and 2020
• minimum of .025 hr/pa in 2019. We'll save the slap-happier hitters for another time.
• only players currently with a top-500 ADP on NFBC. We'll save deeper options for another time.
• FB%, HR/FB%, etc. are calculated without pop-ups included. This makes for a lower FB% than seen on most sites and for a much higher HR/FB%.
• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Air% - total percent of balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)
• Air % (100+ mph) - the percentage of balls hit in the air at 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls in the air.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls in the air.

Using NFBC ADP data and a 12-team league as our guide, let's go through the trouble points in the first five rounds and see who we should be most concerned about for 2021.

From The Top

The old adage goes that you can't win your league in the first round but you can certainly lose it. One of the reasons that first-rounders are first-rounders is because they come with a certain level of power expectations. So if the bombs go belly up on your first pick, fantasy managers will have to do some tough sledding to make up the difference.

With a 5.9% drop in his home run per-plate appearance, Mike Trout only just made the list. My fantasy concerns about him remain firmly rooted in his ever-declining stolen base rates but not everything is rosy in his exit velocities.

Nicklaus! What the hell are you talking about? Didn't Trout see substantial gains in his average exit velocity and his hard-hit rate? Why yes, he did:

Unfortunately, those increases didn't come from hard-hit balls in the air - AKA the only things that turn into home runs - because the numbers at the top-end of his exit velocities all dropped. Not overly large drops but drops nonetheless:

Trout is still Trout (ie. the best complete player in baseball) but is it really unreasonable to point out that the top end of his exit velocities peaked at ages 27-28 and then showed started showing slight signs of decline at age-29? Remember that this is all relative and that a Trout "decline" will still likely leave him among the most elite hitters in baseball for a long time. But fantasy value is a different kettle of fish and even small factors must be accounted for when deciding on your first-round selection.

How much should we downgrade Christian Yelich's power projections after he just 12 home runs in 2020, with a .049 hr/pa rate that was down 36% from 2019? Looking at the changes in the exit velocity and launch angle groupings, 2020 Yelich looked a lot like the 2018 version:

Besides going back in time in regards to the above, Yelich also flipped his prior plate-discipline on its head, posting a 30.8% K% that was 10-points higher than each of his seasons since a 24.2% K% in 2013. But he wasn't chasing or even swinging more; his 17.6% Chase% was over a 10-point drop from 27.9% in 2019 and his 34.6% Swing% was down from 45.2%. And he was significantly less aggressive in the zone; his swings in the zone dropped 11.5 points to 58.1% and his Meatball% (ie. how often you swing at pitches right down the middle) dropped to 66.1% after 80.4% in 2019 and 81.3% in 2018.

Considering the above questions about his power, plus the other questions about his speed and surrounding cast, I don't see myself paying a first-round price for Yelich in 2021.

At the risk of setting off my Nick Mariano-alarm, is it fair to point out that Trevor Story shaved 2-mph off of his average exit velocity on balls in the air while seeing his HR per-PA rate drop 20% and wonder if we're seeing the decline begin? No, actually, I don't think it's fair.

He raised his Air% (100+ mph) from 33.2% in 2019 to 35.0% in 2020 and saw less than a one-point drop in both the average exit velocity of his top-5% hardest-hit balls and the next-20%. His 8.8% Brl% was right at a 9.2% Brl% in 2019, while his 20.6-degree average launch angle was up from 17.2-degrees in 2019. Oh, and also Coors.

I pretty much have zero concerns about Story's power output in 2021. He remains one of the safest picks in fantasy and I would gobble him up every time if he's still sitting there at pick-11.

Rounds Two and Three

Much has been written about the tinkering that Cody Bellinger has gone through with his swing, and why but the effects on his power stroke were palpable. Bellinger's 12 HR in 243 PA (.049 hr/pa) was down 30.7% from his 47 HR output in 2019. Maybe we should just assume he's only going to hit home runs every other year?

It's certainly not as simple as that but his barrel-rate has also yo-yoed since 2017, going from 13.9%, to 9.1%, to 13.1%, and then back down to 9.9% in 2020. And after posting Air% (100+ mph) rates of around 40% in 2017-18 and 38.7% in 2019, Bellinger dropped to 31.5% in 2020. The silver lining is that the average exit velocity of his top-5% hardest-hit balls increased from 107.7 mph to 108.5 mph, while the next-20% dropped only slightly from 104 mph to 103.4 mph.

Bellinger has all the talent in the world and as much fantasy upside as just about anyone but paying virtually a first-round price for someone with his consistency issues is going to be too rich for my blood.

Currently, on the block and near-guaranteed to be traded by Opening Day, some of Francisco Lindor's value is going to hinge on where he ends up. With Toronto emerging as one of the front-runners and Cincinnati also apparently in the mix, Lindor has two very appealing landing spots, both in terms of supporting cast and home hitting environment.

Lindor suffered a major power outage in 2020, hitting 8 HR in 236 PA, posting his worse HR per-PA rate since 2016:

The current Cleveland shortstop is also an excellent example of why looking only at the overall exit velocity of balls hit in the air can be deceiving without also looking at the different exit velocity ranges where the changes occurred.

Lindor's average exit velocity of 91.8 mph on balls in the air last year was virtually identical to his 91.9 mph average in 2019, although down from his high watermark of 93.2 mph in 2018.

However, looking at his top-end exit velocities, Lindor saw significant declines:

Even if Lindor is hitting at the top of an exciting Blue Jay offense in 2021 (and playing in hitter-friendly confines at home and on the road in the AL East) I'm still hesitant to use a top-two pick on him given his declining power and speed rates, especially at such a deep position.

Bo Bichette did see his home run rate decline around 25% from .052 hr/pa in 2019 to .039 hr/pa this season but I see far fewer concerns in his fly ball exit velocities than I do with the aforementioned Lindor. Bichette saw minor dips in the average exit velocity on balls in the air and his Air% (100+ mph) but the average exit velocity of his top-5% hardest-hit balls rose from 107.4 mph to 108.4 mph and his next-20% rose from 103.8 mph to 104.4 mph. Add in a 12.5% Brl% that was up from 9.8% in 2019 and you can color me not worried about Bichette's power

Between injuries, service-time manipulations, and a pandemic, we have yet to see a full season of Bichette but it feels like a full year of production is the only thing standing in the way of his being a fantasy superstar. His current 20-ish ADP feels a lot like you could be getting Tatis-lite when he was going around the same range last year.

As fun as it is to make fun of the Astros, I'm not too concerned about Kyle Tucker decreasing from a .056 hr/pa in 2019 (only 72 PA) to .039 hr/pa this season. Nor am I concerned that his average exit velocity on balls in the air dropped to 90.0 mph, down 3.8 mph from 2019. Because Tucker was crushing it in the top tier of his exit velocities:

Tucker also increased the numbers of balls he hit at a launch angle of 38-degrees or greater, from 12.8% in 2019 to 20.9% this season. This can indicate more of an uppercut swing, which, while a likely drag on batting average, correlates the best for future power amongst the launch angle metrics tested by EV analytics. Tucker's current 31 ADP feels a bit high but I'd be willing to pounce in drafts where he drops closer to 40.

Oh yeah! We have Alex Bregman to fulfill our Houston hate quota. Bregman hit just six home runs in 2020, dropping 43.9%, going from .059 hr/pa in 2019 to .039 hr/pa. And he dropped in just about any way you want to measure how hard he hit balls in the air:

Huh. It's almost like it's harder to hit the ball really hard when you aren't told what pitch-type is coming. Bregman's 35.7 ADP on NFBC is going to be a hard pass for me.

Rounds Four and Five

Woof. Anthony Rendon's exit velocities fell off in a hu-urry, dropping significantly from his highs in 2018-19:

Rendon has always raked but the above doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does the barrel-rate, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon that were the lowest they've been since his first two years in the majors:

You know what? I'm starting to think that hitters often tend to peak in their late-20's and then start a gradual decline around age-30. Not always but sometimes. Luckily, Artie Moreno will never stop paying players in their 30's for what they did in their 20's.

Rendon is probably going to be a strong average play for years to come but you might want to dial back expectations for another repeat of his 34 HR in 2019 and think more realistically around 25 HR. I don't hate his current 42 ADP because you're banking solid (just not spectacular) production at a position that I see as being troublesome in the early rounds.

Sometimes players start declining around age-30 and sometimes it takes them a little longer. Starling Marte has been one of the most consistent performers in fantasy but there are some red flags in regards to power as he enters his age-32 season. After hitting 20 HR and 23 HR in 2018-2019, Marte hit six home runs in 2020, with his .024 hr/pa representing a 38.9% decline.

The exit velocities behind the decline weren't pretty:

Someone should really look into the concept of a peak in the late-20's being followed by a gradual decline. Or ignore all of that nonsense talk and pay a top-50 price for a 32-year-old with declining power and speed. Your call.

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