RADIO
The Week 13 GPP DFS Value Plays come on the heels of the "longest week in the NFL", in case you didn't hear Mike Tirico say it multiple times yesterday. I'll be honest, I like a "long week" and a little mid-week football when those players haven't played in over a week. But I hate the delay in brings when reviewing and analyzing the upcoming week.
But the show must go on! I did pretty well last week with some of my picks when I went deep and recommended Collin Johnson. Johnson had quite the game and I now have the pressure to repeat. I will start by telling you that DJ Chark should be back this week, so I caution you in going to Johnson again. But I'll see what I can do this week. As I mentioned, we're not about selecting the easy chalk picks here at Rotoballer.
And please note, if there are chalky plays you like better, please have at it. I am simply here to suggest some options you might not have considered beforehand. Because that's what GPP value plays are all about--finding that low-owned player who provides so much value that he can help you take down a GPP. I might be bargain-bin hunting too much this week, who knows? But if you want to spend up for your studs, the options below are viable alternatives to provide some salary relief.
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Week 13 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Mike Glennon vs Minnesota (Draftkings $4800, FanDuel $6800)
So if Collin Johnson does surprise again, it will only help Mike Glennon, who I do like this week. Despite the absence of his best WR last week, he still completed 20 passes for 235 yards and a pair of scores. With Chark now back in the fold, I think he can improve on those numbers. At his minuscule salary, that gives us plenty of room to make a profit.
Glennon will be taking on the Vikings, which is a decent match-up. Six of the eleven quarterbacks who faced the Vikings have finished with 18 or more fantasy points. That includes Aaron Rodgers twice, but also lesser options like Andy Dalton. It's not a cakewalk, but the Vikings are giving up the 13th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The Vikings are also favored by double-digit points, meaning the Jags will likely be forced to throw the ball quite a bit.
Glennon is not going to be a top producer this week. But wouldn't surprise me in the least if he is actually the top producer from a point/salary metric this week. Even better than Matt Ryan....
Ready for something upsetting that you'll never be able to unsee?
Mike Glennon moves just like a tall Matt Ryan. Even down to the towel and the number. It's all about the really long legs. pic.twitter.com/5QGuzbY68s
— Robert Mays (@robertmays) December 1, 2020
Week 13 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Jonathan Taylor vs Texans (DraftKings $5700, FanDuel $6400)
We all know the risk in this pick. Taylor might be lucky to see six or seven carries in this one, similar to his weeks 9 and 10 games. Or he could see the 22 carries he saw in week 11 that he turned into 90 yards before going on the Covid-19 list. And there is no way that Taylor will be in any of my cash lineups. But GPP is often about chasing upside and Taylor absolutely has that.
He is still averaging nearly 13 PPR fantasy points a game. There are obviously some duds bringing that down, but that also means a number of very nice ceiling games to bring that average up. Given that he looked strong in his last game and that Nyheim Hines could not even manage to rush for 30 yards last week, I think Taylor will get the bulk of the carries this week.
Taylor has just one game over the century mark this year, but I think he might have his best game of the season this week. If Taylor doesn't produce in this plush match-up against the Texans, he won't any other time this year. Houston has allowed an NFL 2020 season-high 1,564 rushing yards. If we exclude receiving, Houston has been pounded for a league-high 240.4 fantasy points. The next closest is 215.8 or not even within 10%. Furthermore, RBs are seeing a lift of 6.3 more half-PPR points per game versus Houston over the remainder of their games this season.
And I know, the touches concern is still there, but last time the Colts played Houston he managed a whopping 26 touches. I'm taking the risk.
Week 13 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Denzel Mims vs Las Vegas (DraftKings $4100, FanDuel $5500)
I did pretty well last week with a WR that was no higher than a WR3 on the depth chart, so let's try it once again.
Mims has yet to score this year so calling him a WR3 might be apt. However, he also has 23 targets over his last three games, so perhaps it's a misnomer? Misnomer or not, I'm willing to spend a little over 4K on DraftKings for a WR that has 200 receiving yards over his last three games and a decent match-up. He's less of a steal on FanDuel, but I think he still will outproduce that salary against the Raiders.
The Raiders are favored by more than a TD and given that the Methusala-aged Frank Gore is their primary ground option, we should expect the Jets to look Mims ways often against this Raiders secondary. And that secondary leaves a lot to be desired. The Raiders have given up between 36 and 46 PPR fantasy points to wide receivers the last four weeks. Before that, they played the highly praised Browns passing game, and the week before they gave up over 60 PPR fantasy points! I think you can see the trend.
I'll go out on a limb and say that Mims gets double-digit fantasy points this week AND scores his first touchdown. If so, it will make him an exceptional GPP value pick.
Week 13 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Do yourself a favor and spend up at TE this week.
(receives an electric shock)
Ow! Okay, okay. Fine, I'll recommend a cheap option, but this is purely match-up based.
Jared Cook at Atlanta (DraftKings $3900, FanDuel $5500)
Atlanta has been much better the last couple of weeks against tight ends and that includes a match-up against Darren Waller, one of the better TEs in the league. However, Atlanta still has given up the most PPR fantasy points to TE (both overall and per game). It's not just PPR either. TEs opposing the Falcons have seen 4.8 more half-PPR points per game than they have in the average of their other games.
Cook's value has taken a huge hit since Taysom Hill took over at QB, but at 6'5, Cook remains a viable red-zone threat. Perhaps Hill will look Cook's way in the end zone. If Cook scores, (he does have four touchdowns already), that will be enough to make him a decent play this week if you can utilize those salary savings correctly elsewhere.
