RADIO
My Week 8 GPP Value Plays are coming on the heels of a pretty strong week from me. I "hit" on three of my four picks last week. But this week's slate is a little frustrating for me.
I would love to suggest some Panthers, Eagles, or Buccaneers as value plays this week, but alas all three of those teams are not playing on the main slate. For those curious, I think Scotty Miller makes an incredible value play in the MNF, but you'll have to check me out on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) for some of my non-main slate NFL week 8 value plays.
In the meantime, here are four Week 8 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
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Week 8 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Nick Foles at Saints (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $6,700)
I wanted to run with Jimmy Garoppolo here. However, he is such a great value, I think he will be heavily owned, making him more of a cash play. Instead, I am going to go very aggressive and go with an option I expect to be very low owned. As we know, most DFS players suffer from recency bias. And Nick Foles' most recent game was absolutely atrocious.
But the Rams Defense is far better than Foles' upcoming opponent, the Saints. The only two teams that have given up more fantasy points to quarterback this year are the Falcons and the Seahawks. The Falcons game is not on the slate and the aforementioned Garoppolo is facing the Seahawks. Therefore, Foles has one of the best match-ups on the slate. He is priced just $100 cheaper than Bridgewater was last week on FD and the same on DK, and that worked out pretty well.
Grabbing Foles will certainly take some testicular fortitude and I think this tweet says a lot:
There are six 5-win teams in the NFC. Here is their points differential:
Buccaneers +80
Cardinals +57
Rams +52
Packers +38
Seahawks +31
Bears -2 pic.twitter.com/EbJkzdJhma— Evan Kaplan (@EpKap) October 27, 2020
Yet let's not forget this is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. And he has excelled against lesser opponents this year, like when he tossed three touchdowns against the Falcons back in week 3. And I can't stress how great of a match-up this is. The Saints have given up a TD on 8.54% of all pass attempts. For comparison purposes, that's about a third higher than Patrick Mahomes' career touchdown rate of 6.86%. And it's not just one or two All-Pro quarterbacks skewing the averages either. Every quarterback that has faced the Saints has scored at least 19 fantasy points. Throw in the fact that Chicago passes at surprisingly the second-highest percentage in the NFL (65.1%), Foles is an intriguing value play this week.
Week 8 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Zack Moss vs Patriots (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $5,400)
I keep telling everyone this is not the Patriot defense of last year or anywhere close to their SuperBowl years. They are not horrible, but they're not good either. Despite being tied with six other teams for the second-lowest amount of rushing TDs, they are still giving up the 13th most fantasy points to RBs per game. Given that the Bills are in the top half of the league for rushing plays, that does not bode well for New England.
Of course, Moss is a bit of a risk given how this backfield has been this year. However, Moss is slowly taking over this backfield. Devin Singletary's snaps are trending downward with his snap counts over the last five games going 55, 54, 45, 41, and 40 respectively. Singletary also has not had more than forty yards the last three weeks while Moss had 47 yards on seven rushes last week.
Furthermore, Moss also caught more passes for more yards than Singletary last week. This low price on Moss is not going to stay this low for very long. Get him cheap while you can!
Week 8 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Marquise Brown vs Steelers (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $5,900)
Brown is an okay buy on DraftKings where he is priced like a mid-level WR2, even though he is not a PPR-stud. However, it's his value on FanDuel where his value really lies. He is barely one of the top 25 WRs on the slate according to FanDuel. He's not going to be a top ten WR, but that price is an absolute steal.
Many will stay away from the offensive players in this game as they hear "Ravens-Steelers game" and think this will be a defensive slobber-knocker. Oh yes, there will be some bone-crushing hits. But this is not the Ray Lewis Ravens or Troy Polamula Steelers. I will remind you that Ravens put up 26 and 28 points in their two games against the Steelers last year. Vegas agrees, giving the Ravens an implied total of more than 24 points.
And the Steelers Defense is okay, but not great. For example, they are giving up over 40 fantasy points a game to WRs, which is the 12th worst in the league. While the Steelers were in a battle with Tennessee last week, the Ravens are coming off the bye week and had an extra week to prepare. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 10-2 after a bye. The point being made here is that you should expect the Ravens to draw up a number of plays to get the ball in their best receiver's hands.
Brown is only in his second year, but he is averaging seven targets a game and is on pace for a thousand-yard season. Even more impressive than his base stats might be some of his more advanced stats. Through his first six games, Brown had the third most "air yards" and after this week should see his touchdown total double.
Week 8 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Jimmy Graham vs Saints (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $5,400)
I really like Jonnu Smith this week. Jonnu Smith is an outstanding value on DraftKings, but he is practically overpriced on FanDuel. So either he'll be overly owned or too expensive. Instead, we will go with Jimmy Graham.
Let's get the "narrative" spin out of the way first. Graham will be taking on New Orleans who traded Graham after the 2014 season despite him scoring ten touchdowns that year. Do you think he might be a little motivated to show the Saints the error of their ways?
And the Saints might have some trouble containing Graham as they have given up the second-most fantasy points to TEs per game this season.
Furthermore, Graham has been pretty good this season already, having already caught four touchdowns. Graham makes for another great week 8 DFS GPP value play.
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