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Mark Strausberg's KBO DFS lineup picks for contests on FanDuel and DraftKings on 7/19/20. Daily fantasy baseball analysis for pitchers, hitters, and DFS stacks.
Welcome back RotoBallers! This might very well be my last KBO preview, but hold off on the sad emojis just yet. (And for those queueing up party emojis I've got a special "bat flip" just for you!) The reason is that next time I am up on the schedule for some of the leagues closer to home like the NBA and MLB will have started up again. Party time! But because of that, I really want to help you win some moolah on the 7/19/20 KBO DFS slate.
Unlike the rest of the week, I will be sleeping in tomorrow and will be asleep when this slate locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, July 19, 2020. Yes, you're going to have to take some responsibility. And I am assume you are checking out Rotoballer.com each day to see our amazing team of writers' previews each day. But I mentioned it yesterday and I'll mention it again today. Have you checked out the RotoBaller Premium Slack chat? It's a great space to chat during the day about the lineups. I've been known to visit the chats at least once or twice a day, if not more. But it's not just my insights you will see on there, but many others. As stated yesterday, I've been having a pretty good week and I have the chat in part to thank.
Of course, you can always follow me the rest of the week on Twitter @MarkStrausberg for my KBO updates, as well as other picks for other sports if/when I post updates. Got it? Good. Let's get to the top three pitchers for the 7/19/20 KBO DFS slate.
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KBO DFS Pitchers
Yesterday's slate was dominated by Chang Mo Koo and rightfully so. There are a bunch of pitching options tonight, but three definitely stand out to me tonight, especially on FanDuel. And the reason is all three are the cheapest three options on FanDuel.
We will start with the cheapest of the three on DraftKings, David Buchanan ($7300, $23). Let's state up front I think the total amount of points he produces will be less than my top two options. Seven strikeouts for example is about the ceiling of what he can produce in that category. But what I like about Buchanan is the value. He is coming off a gem his last time out when he blanked KIA and did not walk a single player. He now has three strong outings in a row and did not give up more than a single run any of those three outings. The aforementioned Tigers are an even better hitting team than his opponent tonight, the Lotte Giants. They have the third least runs and HRs. Don't expect a 25-fantasy point outing from Buchanan, but he is one of the best values on the slate.
One of the reasons he won't hit 25 fantasy points is I don't think he will get the win. Buchanan is going up against Dan Straily, who has been lights out recently. But you know what pitcher should get the win on tonight's slate? Casey Kelly ($8200, $23). I feel like we have been a broken record telling you how bad the Hanwha Eagles are. If you don't know, go look it up. I expect you know already.
In addition to a great match-up, Kelly brings potential double-digit K upside. His ratios aren't pretty, but like Buchanan he now has three quality starts in a row. His bullpen blew the win for him last time out. But if the Twins bullpen doesn't blow it, he should easily get the W tonight and finish the night with a winning record.
I think my favorite option tonight however is Jake Bringham ($7900, $20). I'd avoid him in cash games, but I absolutely love him as a GPP option. With all the other pitching options on the slate, my guess is he will be very low owned. And that is a mistake. Bringham is having a rough year. He has an inflated 4.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's also been injured most of the year. In his first game back earlier this week he held the Dinos to just one run, one walk and three hits over five innings before picking up the win. Few remember or just don't know that Bringham had a 2.96 ERA over 28 starts in 2019. He's unlikely to strike out much more than half a dozen Wyverns (who have the second fewest runs in the league), but that 2.96 ERA last year was accompanied by a solid 7.39 K/9 last year. That should be enough to limit the amount of Wyverns safely touching home plate and he should pick up the win. At his price, I'm buying!
Other starters to consider are:
Unlike yesterday, I'd be pretty happy buying my two alternatives below tonight. I just feel like the value of these two options is a little lower than I prefer.
- The aforementioned Dan Straily ($9400, $24) should put up the most points tonight.
- And I really like Straily on FanDuel, where he is extremely under-priced, perhaps just as much if not more than the other three options above. However, DraftKings has him priced over $1,000 more than the next closest option. That's about right, but I'd rather use those salary savings on hitters on DraftKings. I do recommend starting him on FanDuel as Straily does have a 2.07 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 83 Ks.
Filthy stuff from Dan Straily. pic.twitter.com/LvzNVVri6s
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 8, 2020
Samsung has been hot lately, so it's not the easiest matchup. But Straily is definitely the most talented pitcher taking the mound tonight and worthy of your consideration. Just know he might be highly owned.
- The ultimate contrarian play tonight is Warwick Saupold ($7100, $25). On FanDuel however, he might be the worst play. He's overpriced but DraftKings has a much fairer salary on him. I'd consider starting him as a SP2 in my GPPs on DraftKings as he will be extremely low-owned. His stats are even worse than last year's. Yet I refused to believe he's this bad. And I was right. His FIP is nearly half a run lower than his actual ERA and some positive regression is coming. It's always risky taking a Hanwha pitcher, but he could help you take down a GPP if you use your savings on the right hitters.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Since I won't be starting Saupold on FanDuel and will have extremely light exposure to him on DraftKings, we might as well start with the chalk stack of the night, the LG Twins.
LG Twins
Between Saupold's high ratios and being right-handed, the left-handed Hyun Soo Kim ($4500, $16) is one of my favorite plays of the night. He'a averaging just a hair under double-digit DKFPs with 11 HRs and a .336 batting average. He's been even hotter lately, hitting .378 with an OPS near 1.200. Roberto Ramos ($4600, $15) is also left-handed and don't be surprised if he adds to his 16 HRs tonight. SS Ji Hwan Oh ($3600, $10) is also left handed and will be highly represented in my lineups tonight on both sites. I'm hoping he adds to his already 10 stolen bases, just one behind those tied for the third most. We are starting to run out of left-handed bats, but OF Hyung Jong Li ($3400, $5 ***FANDUEL MINIMUM ALERT***) and his 9.6 DKFP average is cheap enough for me that I don't care which side he bats. I wouldn't fault you for spending up at catcher for Kang Nam Yoo ($4700) on DraftKings either.
The Twins will be pretty chalky tonight. Furthermore, as of time of submission, there is a 53% chance of rain for this game. Therefore, what I really prefer to do is "game stack" the Bears and Tigers.
Doosan Bears/Kia Tigers
Your pitchers in this game are Min Woo Lee and Young Ha Lee, both who have an ERA north of five and a WHIP that is simply bad. Put another way, both these pitchers are sure-LEE pitching poor-LEE tonight. (That's for my one "fan" who asked for more puns and jokes after yesterday's article). The Tigers and Bears are going to be popular picks tonight, but there are so many of them I wouldn't worry about being ownership being too high on any of them.
Both pitchers are right-handed, so start with the left-handed bats. I have shares of left-handed Doosan bats at catcher, 1B, and 2B with Se Hyuk Park, Jae Il Oh, and Joo Hwan Choi respectively. However, I'm trying to figure out how to spend up for the left-handed Jose Fernandez ($5500, $17) who still has an OPS above a grand. Barely behind Fernandez in most of the offensive categories is fellow teammate and left-handed Jae Hwan Kim, ($5300,v$17) who has 57 RBIs, just one behind league leader Mel Rojas. And I mentioned yesterday than Kyoung Min Hur ($4300, $10) is one of the hottest hitters in the KBO recently. He was hitting .537 over has last ten games and that number jumped to .550 after he went 2-for-3 last night. He is right-handed, but you're crazy if you think he won't be in any of my line-ups.
With Kia, we start at the top with the left-handed Preston Tucker ($5700, $17) and his 16 homers, four of which have come in the last week and half. Hyung Woo Choi ($4900, $15) is also left-handed and comes in slightly cheaper than Tucker but could have an even better night. Looking to save a few bucks? Go with my frequent recommendation of Ji-Wan Na ($3700, $11) who has a solid .284 average and nine HRs. Or go with my frequent punt play Chang Jin Lee ($3000, $5 ***FANDUEL MINIMUM ALERT***), who last failed to reach base in a game around the time we were celebrating our breaking away from England. If Lee starts, he should be able to help you break away from the pack as well.
With the exception of Chang Jin Lee, most of these players will be fairly high owned. So let's look at something a little less chalky.
KT Wiz
With the three teams above likely to be highly popular tonight, I think you can get the Wiz hitters at lower ownership rates. And given than Jae Hak has been Ug-LEE, you could clean up. Mel Rojas Jr ($6300, $18) and his league-leading 21 dingers might be the most desirable hitter tonight...if you can afford him. I think you can almost the same production out of Baek Ho Kang ($5500, $14) at a bit of a discount.
honestly at this point I truly do not care how bad the Wiz bullpen is. as long as Kang Baek-ho is on the squad, I am all in. LOOK AT THIS SWING OMG pic.twitter.com/7sFm38VMQy
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) June 17, 2020
If Shorstop Woo Jun Sim ($3000, $8), who is second in the league in stolen bases (12) and steals one tonight, he will easily surpass his cost. Or he's a little pricey on FanDuel, but Jeong Dae-Bae ($3200, $13) continues to be criminally underpriced on DraftKings. All he has done so far this season is hit .325 with six homers and ten stolen bases.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- I know most will not share my optimism for Buchanan. In fact, I expect Lotte to be one of the more popular stacks. But I like the other chalky stacks more. However, if a couple games get rained out, I might be forced to pivot my entire team. If so, I will probably go with a few Lotte hitters, like the strong values in the infield of Ah Seop Son ($4100, $15) on DK in particular and/or Chi Hong An ($3000, $10) on both sites.
- Of course you can always stack the NC Dinos. Opposing pitcher Odrisimar Despaigne has pitching very well his last three starts, but those three games were against HAN, KIA, and KIW. Here's where I will remind you that no one has more HRs than the Dinos. We've done this enough times now; you know the big bats to play.
Good luck in your KBO DFS lineups tonight!
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