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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/21/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, June 21st edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, June 18th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (-154)
O/U: 9.5
This pick will go against everything I stand for in terms of recent trends, as the Astros have lost five in a row while the Yankees have won six. The fact of the matter is that the Astros at +140 is too good of a value to pass up.
James Paxton has had his share of struggles this season, especially at home where he has recorded a 5.96 ERA. June hasn't been a good month for him so far, allowing 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings, which won't go over well against a great hitting team like the Astros. The Astros are the best team in the majors against left-handed pitching, with a .367 team wOBA. Brad Peacock has been consistent for the Astros this season, including a stretch in May where he allowed only three earned runs over five starts. It's far from impossible that the Astros will steal game one of this series, and it seems even more impossible that the Astros would lose six games in a row.
My Pick: Astros (+140)
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-113)
O/U: 9
I believe the Padres have the upper-hand in the game tonight due to a bigger pitching mismatch than the numbers may suggest. Eric Lauer's numbers have been inflated by two starts in Colorado where he allowed eight and five earned runs respectively. If you take out the Coors Field games, he has had nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs. Joe Musgrove takes the mound for the Pirates, recording a 7.61 ERA in the last 30 days.
The Padres are in the middle of a three-game winning streak and are .500 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't been enjoying the confines of PNC Park, only managing a 14-19 record.
My Pick: Padres (+103)
Minnesota Twins (-168) @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 10.5
Both pitchers in this game have been susceptible to giving up big run totals, with Martin Perez recording a 6.75 ERA and Jakob Junis recording a 4.61 ERA in the last month. The Twins over is 23-11-3 in road games this season, while the Royals over is 21-15-2 at home. All signs point to a high scoring game after a shocking 4-1 game in the series opener last night.
What interests me in this matchup is the weather factor, as the temperatures will be in the upper 80's which is the best hitting weather in baseball this season. There will also be a strong 11-14 mph wind blowing out to the left field seats, which could spell trouble for Jakob Junis and his 1.63 HR/9. The Twins lead the league in home runs with 141, and I can see their bats heating up after a missed opportunity against Glenn Sparkman last night.
My Pick: Over 10.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-196)
O/U: 7.5
I almost changed my mind after realizing the Rockies beat me on Tuesday in this same scenario, but I roll with it once again in this matchup. Walker Buehler has been lights out over his past five starts, allowing only seven runs, with five of those runs coming in the same game. German Marquez has a 7.42 ERA in the last month and has had his fair share of blowups both at home and on the road, eliminating the Coors Field factor. In my opinion, the Dodgers could cover the over by themselves, but I think with the Rockies having gone 7-3 on the over in the last ten, they will be able to manufacture a couple of runs tonight.
Despite the Rockies offensive outbursts, the Dodgers should still cover the spread here against Marquez.
My Pick: Over 7.5, Dodgers -1.5
Nate's YTD picks: 37-22-2
