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Running backs who could find their market share of carries and rush attempts decline in 2018. Phil Clark examines a few RB who could regress and become fantasy football draft busts.
As we continue our daily progression toward the long-awaited game action of Week 1, many of you have intensified your preparation for upcoming drafts, while others have already constructed rosters in some of your redraft leagues.
Here at RotoBaller, we remain dedicated to providing you with abundant resources toward helping you build highly competitive rosters, which has been your goal since the conclusion of your 2017 fantasy season. That includes our numerous articles and updated rankings for the critical running back position, which remains entrenched as a vital component in determining your chances of success. This breakdown will focus on five backs that appear destined to contend with a regression in their market share this season, due to the advent of a new coaching philosophy, the presence of gifted competitors who could pilfer a larger percentage of their workload, or other factors that will alter the distribution of touches.
This will likely result in a smaller allotment of carries, targets, or red zone touches, or a combination of decreased opportunities in several of these categories. This does not equate to labeling them as busts, nor does it suggest that they cannot deliver respectable production during the season. However, a diminished opportunity will have a greater impact on their output than ability. Here are five backs that should experience market share reduction, along with a breakdown of how and why their touches will be negatively impacted.
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RB Regression Candidates
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
This touch share review is not a recommendation that Howard should be avoided, and it is definitely not an assertion that he will be a bust. Just like many of you who are reading this, I will be participating in an assembly line of drafts between now and the onset of Week 1, and I will not hesitate to choose Howard if the overall flow and the constitution of my roster make him a viable selection. But this is not a projection piece, and the intent is to examine touch share regression. Considering the additional resources that will be available for Matt Nagy to deploy in Chicago’s revamped offense, and the infusion of receiving weaponry that will be available to Mitchell Trubisky, it will be difficult for Howard to reach the touch total that he registered in the Bears’ unimaginative 2017 offense.
Howard was allotted the fifth most rushing attempts (276), which enabled him to finish sixth in yardage (1,122). But his carries also comprised 75% of the attempts that were distributed to Chicago’s backs, while also accounting for 39% of all touches within the entire offense. All of which is unlikely to be replicated. His propensity for drops and overall deficiencies as a receiver have been discussed extensively, and will continue to limit his usage as a pass catcher (8.2% in 2017). That will be unfortunate for his owners since Chicago launched a league-low 423 passes last season, and that number will undoubtedly rise. This will make Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton the primary beneficiaries of the Bears' reinvigorated passing attack.
Tarik Cohen should also receive a boost in touches after playing on just 360/36.4% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. Nagy should take advantage of his playmaking capabilities by lining him up in various formations. This should pave the way for Cohen to join the newly assembled receiving options in commandeering a favorable number of targets. However, Howard's status as the team’s primary rusher will remain unquestioned, which will allow him to function as a proficient RB2. But the increase in Chicago's weaponry was also the genesis for a decline in his share of touches.
Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns
The imminent change in Hyde’s touch share also provides the perfect illustration for this piece. Not only did his 240 carries place him 11th among all running backs in 2017, but he also captured the seventh highest percentage of red zone rushes (61%). That propelled him to an RB8 finish in fantasy points, on the strength of the cumulative effectiveness as a rusher (938 yards/8 touchdowns) and receiver (59 receptions/350 yards). But even though Hyde should begin the season as the early-down back, the 39% touch share that he was allotted with the 49ers in 2017 will be difficult to match. Hyde must operate within one of the league's most congested stable of running backs. while his ongoing responsibilities in the lead role will be subject to the sometimes questionable decision making of Hue Jackson. Which can be the equivalent of flapping in the wind.
Hyde's workload could easily be redistributed to second-round pick Nick Chubb at some point during the season, while the versatile Duke Johnson - who finished at RB11 one year ago - will also confiscate a sizable role as the Brown's pass-catching presence from the backfield. Johnson captured the fourth most receptions among backs (74) in 2017, while also finishing third in receiving yardage (693). This presents yet another obstacle for Hyde's ability to match last season's touch share, as it is extremely unlikely that he will reach the 88 targets that he amassed last season.
That was the fifth highest target total at his position, which also placed him second on the 49ers. Still, that is yet another unattainable number with the Browns considering Johnson's role, and the passes that will be designated for Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, and David Njoku. Hyde's value will be at its pinnacle when the season begins. But Chubb will loom as a threat as the year progresses, while Johnson will commandeer the vast majority of targets among Cleveland's three-headed amalgamation of backs. This does not present an encouraging scenario when evaluating Hyde's ability to match his 2017 market share.
Isaiah Crowell, New York Jets
While Bilal Powell’s ADP barely dwells within the boundaries of Round 11 (133), Crowell is being selected nearly four rounds earlier (88). But Powell has played the first-team snaps during the preseason, while receiving considerably more touches than Crowell (25-9). Considering the contrast between their current workload distribution and the perception of those who have already drafted Crowell, it is important to remind everyone who is still preparing for their drafts that Crowell's new three-year contract does not equate to an inevitable RB1 role.
At this point, it is Powell that appears primed to operate as the team’s primary back, and it is unrealistic to project Crowell's carries to match the 206 that he received with the Browns last season. That enabled him to finish 18th in rushing yardage (853), which was two spots above Powell (772). The workload also resulted in a 70.5% share among Cleveland's backs, and 54.7% of all team rushing attempts regardless of position. But Crowell’s touches were only split with Duke Johnson, and the running back stable that exists with his new team is more congested.
Crowell’s primary obstacle is the underappreciated Powell, who collected 48% of the carries that were distributed to Jet rushers last season. His 178 attempts easily led Matt Forte (103), and Elijah McGuire (88), while Powell also garnered 30% of the receptions that were allotted to New York’s backfield. He has also averaged 46 targets since 2012, which surpasses Crowell’s career average of 32. While McGuire’s health is currently in question due to his foot surgery, the 24-year old could eventually lurk as an additional threat to Crowell’s opportunities. Meanwhile, Charcandrick West was also signed last week, which is a possible signal that McGuire’s recovery will continue beyond Week 1.
While the workload distribution could be modified as the season progresses, Powell will receive the majority of touches when the Jets travel to Detroit in Week 1. Even if Crowell captures a larger touch share once the season progresses, you can make more judicious use of your 8th round pick by avoiding him at his current ADP. But if you select him at a later point of your drafts, be prepared for a workload that will not match his allotment from 2017.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
You probably recall that just one year ago, Ty Montgomery was a third-round selection for fantasy owners during their 2017 drafts. While he received 90% of the touches that were allotted to Green Bay backs from Weeks 1-3, Montgomery's responsibilities as the team's RB1 essentially ended in Week 4, when he suffered a lingering rib injury that relegated him to 30 touches for the remainder of the year.
That briefly presented Williams with an opportunity to function as the primary back, before he also suffered a knee injury during the same contest. Aaron Jones proceeded to explode for 297 yards (99 YPG) in Weeks 5-7, while garnering a 76% market share during that span. But when a sprained MCL forced Jones to the sidelines in Week 10, Williams received 163 of 187 touches from Weeks 10-17 - a whopping market share of 87% - which propelled him to the team lead in rushing for the season (556).
But that was just 108 more yards than Jones assembled, even though Williams received 72 additional carries. The explosive Jones also delivered a more appealing YPC average (5.5/3.6) and burst for six different runs of 20+ yards. By contrast, Williams accomplished that only once, which further underscores Jones' superior ability to generate big plays.
Williams’ volume enabled him to attain the better overall yardage total, and his opportunity to operate as the lead back during Jones’ two-game suspension has fueled an already spirited debate among fantasy owners and analysts concerning which second-year is most worthy of targeting first in your drafts. But even if the tandem splits early down work during the season, with Montgomery confiscating even a modest percentage of pass-catching opportunities, it will be difficult for Williams to match last year’s touch share among the three backs (49.17%), which was built in great part due to the extended period in which he was allotted the vast majority of opportunities.
Williams could serve as the starter for much of the season. But unless both Jones and Montgomery are sidelined for an extended period of time, the upside that Jones can supply, and the continued presence of Montgomery, will make it difficult for Williams to receive the 18 attempts-per-game average that he maintained during his eight-game sequence as a workhorse. Which makes Williams a strong candidate for market share regression.
C.J. Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Anderson generated his first career 1,000-yard season in 2017 after being allotted the ninth most attempts (245), which was 53.5% of Denver's carries, and 61% of the allotment to Bronco backs. He also led the team in red zone carries (25) which resulted in a 38.5% team share. As a result, the one-year contract that he signed with Carolina last May made it feasible that last year's ninth-leading rusher would pace the Panthers in attempts this season, while Christian McCaffrey would be the functional pass catcher as both backs performed their roles in a shared backfield.
That would also have supplied Anderson with the majority of opportunities near the goal line that were earmarked for the running back position, which would provide owners with an enticing middle-round option. But after McCaffrey's seizure of the team's feature back role was unveiled during the preseason, Anderson's value has plummeted as definitively as his projected market share. If McCaffrey receives 12 carries per game, that would be five more attempts per game than he garnered in 2017, yet would still be a smaller workload than he appears primed to receive.
That conservative estimate would still constrain Anderson's carries to a number far below the 15.3 attempts that he averaged during his final season as a Bronco. Since McCaffrey now could reasonably be expected to receive over 15 carries per game, Anderson's opportunities will be alarmingly low. McCaffrey will also usurp an enormous percentage of targets that are designated for backs, which could keep Anderson's share of receptions below the 8.5% that he received last season. Virtually all perceived upside that Anderson may have presented to owners has evaporated, and he should not be drafted at his current Round 9 ADP.
