RADIO
Matt Williams takes a look at some fantasy baseball trade targets fantasy owners should consider selling high early in the 2018 MLB season. Players highlighted include: Ozzie Albies, James Paxton, Marcell Ozuna, A.J. Pollock and Anthony Rizzo.
We are now over a week into May of the 2018 fantasy baseball season. Now is the time that owners need to take a hard look at their roster to decide what areas they need to improve. The waiver wire has likely been picked clean of the obvious must-add players and the best option now may be to look on the trade block to make some moves.
Could your team use some stolen bases, but has a surplus of reliable power hitters? Maybe you have a closer to spare but could really use another starting pitcher to help round out your squad.
While every league is unique, I'll offer some helpful trade advice by delving into specific high-interest players that you should be looking to buy or sell, along with specific targets to keep in mind. It's time to make some moves, RotoBallers!
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Trade Advice
First things first, it is important to remember that most teams will be looking to upgrade their own team and there are certain guidelines you should follow when making trade offers:
1.) You don't have to "win" the trade. A deal between two owners should benefit both teams, you need to give up something to get something. If you go out of your way to simply fleece the other owners in your league you will gain a bad reputation and maybe lose the ability to deal with others in the future. You want to make sure your team improves from the acquisition, but you also want to be fair.
2.) Make deals using reasonable assumptions. You want to trade Ian Desmond because he has been awful. Guess what? Everyone else knows that too. So before making an offer that is going to land you a sarcastic reply by a rival owner, think about what you would think if offered the same deal. Buying low and selling high is a universally known strategy, but value is in the eye of the beholder. Anthony Rizzo is off to a poor start and you come to the conclusion that he will bounce back. However, the chances are good, but not certain, that his current owner may feel the same exact way. So instead of low-balling the owner and making him upset, make a reasonable offer that they would consider even if they still believe in the Cubs' first baseman. Do they need stolen bases badly and need an outfielder? Do you have extra outfielders but need a first baseman? Offer them Tommy Pham. This is still "buying low" on Rizzo, but it does not insult the other owner and gives them a reason to consider your proposal or counter it.
3.) Everyone loves their own players. You drafted your players, they are your babies. You put in the work and the research and decided they were the ones to lead you to the promised land in 2018. However, it's the middle of May and you desperately need a shortstop after Corey Seager went down for the year. What are you going to do? You drafted Mitch Haniger, Blake Snell, and Ozzie Albies in this league. You love this team and you do not want to give up any of "your guys." The problem is that the guys you do want to trade, no one else wants them either.
It is important to step back and really look at your team objectively. If you really need a starting shortstop and someone offers you Javier Baez for Mitch Haniger, you need to put your love for your own players aside and make the deal. Even though what you really want to do is decline the offer, tell them "You picked Baez off waivers right after the draft and Haniger is an sleeper MVP candidate," then counter them with Gregory Polanco. This is a poor choice for two reasons. One, you missed an opportunity to improve your team because you were too stubborn to trade "your guy." Two, you have now created a rift between you and another owner who may not want to work with you down the line. When and how a player was acquired is irrelevant, what matters is if the trade will help your team. Remember that everyone loves their own players. That means other teams too, so be prepared to run into some hurdles of your own.
Every week, I will be breaking down trade values as well as trade offers sent in by RotoBaller readers to shed some light on how to make the best deal for your team. Be sure to send your fantasy baseball trade questions to @MattWi77iams. Now, Let's take a look at some trades you may be looking at this week in fantasy baseball.
Who's on the Block This Week?
James Paxton (SP, Seattle Mariners)
Paxton has been on a roll lately, to say the least, complete with back-to-back outings that scored him 23 strikeouts, zero earned runs, and a no-hitter. The outings bring the young lefties ERA down to 3.40 with a 2.97 FIP, 12.65 K/9 and a 14.4% swinging strike rate. So why is he on the trade block? He is in an interesting spot right now that can land him on both the "buy-low" and "sell-high" sides at the same time. Everything points to this being completely legitimate out of Paxton.
Matt, is now the time to sell Paxton high (He's gonna get hurt eventually, no?) Or should I hold? - anonymous reader
Fantasy owners have seen this before from the Seattle southpaw and this string of success should really not surprise anyone. The thing is, not everyone is on board with the lefty just yet. Fantasy owners have seen a poor start to the year for Paxton after he missed time last season with a forearm strain and left pectoral strain. He seems to completely healthy at the moment and it may be worth checking in with the Paxton owner to see if he could be pried away. You never know, the owner may think they are selling high when they are actually just selling a valuable asset. Try offering a high profile player like Robinson Cano or Buster Posey.
On the other hand, if you are already the Paxton owner, you have interesting options available to you. It is entirely possible that you have someone in your league that is now all-in on Paxton. Maybe the owner has him in another league and believes that Paxton is going to be this dominant for the rest of the season. The truth is that the injury concerns for the Seattle lefty have not gone away. They are always going to be there. If someone feels that confident that he is a surefire fantasy ace and is willing to give you Jose Abreu or maybe even Anthony Rizzo for him, I say "thank you" and accept the deal. Speaking of Anthony Rizzo....
Anthony Rizzo (1B, Chicago Cubs)
Rizzo has been the king of bad luck this season. The Cubs' first baseman has a BABIP of just .185 after carrying a career BABIP of .283. This is especially puzzling when you look at the fact that his combined medium/hard contact rate is sitting a career high 85.9%, while his O-swing percentage (chasing pitches out of the strike zone) is at a career low 27.4%. Those indicate Rizzo should be in for a career year, in a good way. Who knows if that will happen, but one thing is for certain, Rizzo is tremendously better than what the box score has shown so far.
The slugging first baseman is batting just .190 with a 3.6% walk percentage, but now is the perfect time to throw a trade offer on the table. Rizzo has held a walk rate above 10% for his entire career and I doubt that he simply forgot how to do it suddenly in 2018. Typically one-for-one trades involving the same position are ill-advised, but in this case I would consider tossing Rhys Hoskins or Jose Abreu out there in a 2-for-2 offer to see if I could land Rizzo. Other names you could consider offering are: Gerrit Cole, A.J. Pollock, and Ozzie Albies (Don't worry, I will get to Pollock and Albies soon).
Marcell Ozuna (OF, St.Louis Cardinals)
There were sky high expectations coming into the season for Marcell Ozuna. Acquired by the Cardinals this winter as part of the Miami tear-down, the power-hitting outfielder is coming off a 2017 slash line of .312/.376/.548 with a .388 wOBA. This season, on the other hand, is a horse of a different color. Ozuna is off to a .246/.277/.328 start with a decreased walk rate and increased strikeout rate. These statistics alone have cause some fantasy owners to panic, even to the point of dropping him in some mixed leagues. Seriously, I have seen it happen. Not to put the cart before the horse, but if you happen to be among the lucky few who are in one of those leagues, congratulations. For the rest of us, Ozuna is still owned and has a frustrated owner.
There are red flags everywhere you look in the obvious places for Ozuna's performance this season. If you dig a little deeper you will find some light at the end of the tunnel. Let's begin with his outstanding 48% hard contact rate. That is both impressive and among the league leaders. Combine that with a depressed HR/FB ratio currently sitting at half Ozuna's carrer average and you have a power hitter ready to explode. The poor batting average is not as fluky as you may think with a .316 BABIP behind it, but if he keeps up the hard contact things are going to start to trend in the right direction in St. Louis.
It's possible Ozuna may be pressing in his new environment, as evident by his increased chase rate and swinging strike rate. This trend suggests he is being overly aggressive at the plate and is something he can certainly work to improve. The bottom line here is that there are enough positive signs here to make the Marcell Ozuna a wise buy-low investment in mixed leagues. Players you may want to consider offering are: Miguel Sano, Trevor Story, and Miguel Cabrera.
A.J. Pollock (OF, Diamondbacks)
In 2015, A.J. Pollock looked like a future MVP candidate and fantasy stud. However, 2015 was also the last time the 30-year old outfielder was healthy enough to play in more than 112 games. Pollock has been unable to make it through even half of a season and has played in just 124 major league games over the past two years. Fantasy owners have never doubted the talent in the Arizona outfielder, but his health has become a serious concern. A.J. Pollock still came into the 208 season as a sleeper who could be a multi-category difference maker in mixed leagues.
By now, you know that those who took a gamble on Pollock in drafts have been compensated and then some. The Diamondbacks center fielder is slashing .308/.361/.677 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases and a 175 wRC+. He is a fantasy stud who has grown into the kind of player we all hoped he could be. However, like James Paxton, those injury concerns have not simply disappeared. It is often a silly exercise to project injuries onto a player, but when we are talking about a player of this caliber it always pays to perform some due diligence to see if you can maximize their value.
Let's first take a closer look at Pollock's start to his 2018 campaign. His walk rate is still well below his career average at 7.6%, while his strikeout rate has climbed to a career high 22.9%. Those are the direction fantasy owners want those numbers to go. Pollock is smoking the ball this season to the tune of a 43.4% hard contact rate, but it is doused by a bit of a wet blanket when you notice a highly unsustainable 26.8% HR/FB ratio. The bottom line here is that A.J. Pollock is having a great season, but there are some red flags that hint at regression. If you pair that with his injury history, A.J. Pollock makes for a prime sell-high candidate. Fantasy owners should not look to simply trade him for the sake of it, you will want to look for an elite performer, but one without the risk. Possible trade targets may be: George Springer, Francisco Lindor, and Brian Dozier.
Ozzie Albies (2B, Atlanta Braves)
In keeper and dynasty formats, do not trade this man. This is for redraft leagues only.
Coming into 2017, the switch hitting Albies had just seven home runs in 293 career minor-league games, but he managed to crank out 15 last season in 154 games between Triple-A Gwinnett and the Braves. The young second baseman now has 10 in 34 games to begin the 2018. His 18.9% HR/FB ratio throws shade on the possibility of that continuing, but he has certainly added more power to his arsenal that many had predicted. The 21-year-old could be a future five-category fantasy stud, and this is making fantasy owners very excited.
You have to trade him.
What? Why would you trade Ozzie Albies? He is amazing. Yes, he is amazing, but do you think he is going to end the year batting .290 with 40 home runs? If the answer is no, you have to trade Albies. Or should I say, you should try to trade him. Why should you? Someone in your league truly believes Albies is going to hit 40 home runs and they may be willing to pay full price for their misguided prediction. I am not even talking about trading Albies for Tommy Pham, Xander Bogaerts, or Aaron Nola (both of whom are fantastic and would be great returns).
If you are truly looking to take advantage of the moment, make aggressive offers for players like: Brian Dozier, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez or Anthony Rizzo. The excitement is out there for this young second baseman right now. Albies is a perfect combination of prospect pedigree and over-performance, and if you strike while the iron is hot you may find yourself with a large haul. Good luck.
