If you’re a regular reader of RotoBaller (and how could someone as smart, funny, and handsome as you not be?), you’ve doubtless already checked out our rankings assistant tool. We recently finished rolling out the February update, and we’ll have one final revision for you later in March.

With draft season ramping up now, though, it seems like a good time to check our expert opinions against the wisdom of the crowds. Over the next several days, we’ll highlight players with notable discrepancies between their ADP and how the staff here at RotoBaller views their 2016 value.

All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros. Quoted figures are the players’ ranking at their position and not their overall ADP.

First Basemen We Prefer

Joey Votto

ADP: 8th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 5th | My rank: 5th

Votto has always been an incredible hitter, but that hasn’t always translated to huge fantasy value. He has just one 30 homer season and two 100 RBI campaigns to his name. He certainly delivered last season, however, finishing second at the position per ESPN’s Player Rater and fourth in Yahoo rank. The Reds are likely to be one of the worst offensive clubs in baseball, which will make it difficult for Votto to eclipse the century mark in runs or RBI. But assuming health, you can count on him in for a batting average north of .300 and 25+ homers. He’s also a sneaky source of steals, averaging nine swipes in his last five full seasons.

Freddie Freeman

ADP: 11th | RB Rank: 8th | My rank: 8th

Like Votto, Freeman isn’t going to be done any favors by his anemic supporting cast. He’s been a pretty consistent producer in his major league career, though, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. Take a look at his batted ball data and other peripherals; they’re downright metronomic. And before suffering wrist and oblique injuries last season, Freeman looked to be well on his way to a career year. Both Steamer and ZiPS projections have him firmly in the top 10 at first base. Freeman is a high-floor fantasy player with some untapped upside and is only 26 years old.

Brandon Belt

ADP: 17th | RB Rank: 12th | My rank: 12th

Belt has been a breakout candidate for what feels like forever at this point, but he’s still just 27. While his last two healthy seasons have been his best, he has yet to hit 20 homers, score 80 runs, or drive in 70. There are indications that he could be on the verge of a big year, though – a top 10 hard-hit rate (39.5%) and the highest line drive rate (28.7%) of any qualified hitter last season. And it’s an even year, so Belt will probably win the Triple Crown in leading the Giants to yet another championship.

Lucas Duda

ADP: 20th | RB Rank: 14th | My rank: 13th

Duda’s run production was held back by the Mets’ lineup during their anemic first half and he’s firmly established as a liability in batting average at this point. He was also incredibly streaky last season, hitting 20 of his 27 homers in 23 games, with the others spread over the remaining 112. So he’s by no means a flawless player. That said, he made some strides against lefties last season, and he could be the last 30 HR bat off the board at the position.

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