Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Fantasy Football Analysis and Team Outlook

The Arizona Cardinals made an expected leap within in the NFC in the 2014 season. Unfortunately, injuries just hammered the roster resulting in the Cardinals going out with a whimper rather than a bang. There’s reason for optimism, however, as the team should be healthier heading into 2015. A clean bill of health might be a step in the right direction for competing in the NFL but this is still a team that has limited fantasy value overall.

Offseason Acquisitions: RB David Johnson

No Longer on the Roster: QB Ryan Lindley, WR Ted Ginn Jr, and RB Jonathan Dwyer

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Quarterbacks

When the Arizona Cardinals acquired Carson Palmer in 2013, the expectation was that he would give the team a much needed offensive boost, and that he did. In his first season with the Cardinals, Palmer amassed 4,274 yards and 24 touchdowns. Palmer has never been one to boast a low interception total, so his 22 INTs shouldn’t come as a surprise even though they were the highest of his career. The most important thing about Palmer’s tenure with the Cardinals thus far is that he’s the best quarterback this team has had since Kurt Warner. Sadly, Palmer was unable to stay healthy last season, hurting his shoulder early in the season before ultimately going down for year with a torn ACL.

At 35, there’s some obvious concerns about just how effective Palmer will be coming back from such a major injury. His recovery has gone smoothly and he’s already been cleared to resume practicing. The question is whether or not he’ll be able to sustain a healthy season after playing just six games last year. Palmer is regarded as a low-end QB2 in two-quarterback leagues with limited upside. If healthy and productive, Palmer can help lead this offense back into the playoffs but there isn’t really a whole lot of fantasy value to be had. It doesn’t help that his surrounding receivers include an aging Larry Fitzgerald and developing youngsters in Michael Floyd and John Brown. In short, it’s probably best to look elsewhere for your backup or bye week fill-in barring a matchup that’s just too tasty to pass up.

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown represent one of the more head scratching groups of wide receivers in all of football. Fitzgerald is a Hall of Fame level talent who has fallen off due to a combination of age and shaky quarterback play. Fitzgerald hasn’t cracked 1,000 receiving yards since 2011, but there is some sort of silver lining over that span. Over the last three seasons, Fitzgerald’s best year was in 2013, the year Carson Palmer played all 16 games for the Cardinals. Fitzgerald had 954 yards and 10 touchdowns that year, keeping him fantasy relevant. Fitzgerald currently ranks as a WR4 and with good reason. His upside has become severely limited, and quite frankly too many younger talents have surpassed him. There’s always the chance that Palmer recovers mightily and is able to get Fitzgerald the ball enough to allow them both to flirt with fantasy stardom. Even with that possibility, I’d much rather take my chances on someone like Martavis Bryant for example, an emerging talent on a better offense with a better quarterback.

Much like Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd’s best year came during the season in which Carson Palmer was healthy for all 16 games. Floyd racked up 1,041 yards on 112 targets, numbers that could easily be duplicated with a healthy Palmer. Noticing a trend? This is an offense that needs consistent, high-quality play from its quarterback. If you were to simply ask me "well then do you think Palmer will bounce back or not?" my answer would be that it doesn't really matter, because I'm advocating avoiding this passing attack as best you can in favor of better options.

This will only be John Brown’s second year in the league so he hasn’t even scratched the surface yet as far as his potential is concerned. It’d be unfair to Brown to use his 2014 statistics as a measure for how good he can be due to the sporadic quarterback situation. If I had to own a wide receiver on the Cardinals it would actually be John Brown given that he would cost the least in a draft, and we haven’t seen what he can do with a good and healthy quarterback. Believe it or not, Brown actually had just as many targets as Larry Fitzgerald last year with 103. This is an offense that clearly wants to utilize it’s younger talent, but they just need the right passer to do it.

Running Backs

This would be the second year where we’re all awaiting the big breakout from Andre Ellington, so it’s safe to say this is his last shot at fantasy stardom. Ellington missed four games in 2014, but his overall production actually matched that of his 2013 campaign where he only missed one game. Ellington ran for 660 yards and three touchdowns over the course of 12 games in 2014. That compares to 652 yards and those same three touchdowns in 2013, where he played in 15. It’s an odd type of stat to look at, but the takeaway is that there’s an argument he’s actually improving even if his health and low average yards-per-rush don't show it. Ellington’s draft value has depleted to the point where he could end up being a steal in any sized draft. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that he’s actually a must-own in PPR leagues given how overlooked he’s been as of late. You can likely draft him for pennies on the dollar if the rest of your league overlooks him.

Ellington ranked sixth in both targets and receptions among running backs last season, so he’s clearly a focal point in the passing game when healthy. There are some parallels to be made between Ellington and a guy like Lamar Miller. Both players were hyped up as sleepers to target but faded out rather quickly. Miller then leaped into fantasy relevance after the hype had subsided and his offensive line had received a much needed boost. I view Ellington as the perfect candidate to be that type of player in 2015, as you should be able to draft him at a decent price without all the surrounding hoopla.

Rookies and Tight Ends

Aside from health, the only other knock on Andre Ellington is the presence of rookie running back David Johnson. Johnson was selected in the third round of the NFL draft out of the University of Northern Iowa. Early reports suggest that Johnson possesses similar attributes as Ellington, which tells us two things. The first is that the Cardinals are weary about Ellington’s health and production but want to keep the same style of offense they currently utilize. That would make David Johnson a RB2 candidate should Ellington go down or struggle. The second aspect of this is that Ellington does indeed get banged up a bit, so it’s better to have a player who can duplicate his move set in the event he misses time. Either way, I wouldn’t expect David Johnson to eat into Ellington’s workload too much, as it appears this was an insurance pick by the Cardinals more than anything else. Should Ellington go down or be completely ineffective, then Johnson would become more fantasy relevant. Until then, he’s one of the more obvious handcuffs in fantasy. This is Ellington's job to lose.

If you’re looking to Arizona tight ends Troy Niklas and Ted Bolser for fantasy production, I cannot help you win your league. I am sorry.

Summary

So basically what we have here is an Arizona Cardinals team that needs both Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington to be healthy and effective in order to provide us with fantasy production. I’m much more confident in the latter, as Palmer is coming off of massive surgery and is no spring chicken. John Brown is the most interesting sleeper on this team with David Johnson holding traditional handcuff upside in the event of an Ellington injury. If there’s one team married to health as far as fantasy relevance is concerned, it’s the Cardinals.

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