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Tom Bellucco analyzes some MLB DFS lineup picks & sleepers for 7/10/15 on FanDuel fantasy baseball daily leagues. His DFS advice and value picks help you win on FanDuel.
Hey RotoBallers! This is my last FanDuel advice piece until the All-Star break, so here comes my shameless plug. Be on the lookout for a longer article that I’m going to write reflecting on the first half of the year. It will include lessons I’ve learned, strategies to go by, and plans for the second half of the season. Give it a look! I promise it will help. End shameless plug.
Sorry for all of those who fell for the White Sox BvP trap yesterday like I did (even though Alexei Ramirez didn’t play). Now you know why I don’t trust BvP numbers as much as wOBA and wRC+. Although, Melky Cabrera did homer and Jose Abreu had two hits. So, who am I kidding, I’m a genius! Let’s move this along before I contradict myself even more.
Friday, July 10th includes a normal 15-game slate minus a Wrigley afternoon matchup between the White Sox and Cubbies. We’ll disregard that game and take a look at the best of the 28 teams playing Friday night. Let’s get to it!
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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS
Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Danny Duffy, LHP)
As you’ve hopefully noticed, I love the Blue Jays against lefties. In one of my articles last week, I overviewed their respective wOBAs against lefties. Not much has changed since then. They still crush lefties. However, Devon Travis has been hitting leadoff lately and doing it well. He’s another option to go along with the ones I mentioned (if you’re too lazy to click the link, it’s Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Chris Colabello, and Danny Valencia). Russell Martin and Kevin Pillar are viable too as long as they’re playing.
Texas Rangers (vs. Ian Kennedy, RHP)
This one’s a bit of a stretch, but if I just tell you to stack Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Coors Field teams every day, then you’re never going to win a big tournament. Those stacks are too highly owned night in and night out. The Rangers might fly under the radar tonight. Ian Kennedy is not a bad pitcher. He has given up a fair amount of home runs this year, but that can be partially explained by his 20.9% HR/FB rate. Texas of course has some big lefties that can leave the yard in Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, and Mitch Moreland. Combine that with the likes of Shin Soo Choo or maybe some Rougned Odor (also lefties) and you have yourself a solid stack. I know, I know, they’ve been shaky and tough to rely on lately. But the upside is certainly there, and they have to break out of it eventually, right?
Honorable Mentions: Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel
Cole Hamels (SP, PHI) - $9,800
A lot of you may be surprise that I didn’t go with Hamels’ opponent (Madison Bumgarner) for cash games instead, especially since the Phillies have been shut out the past two nights. Well, that’s actually one of the reasons that Bumgarner scares me. There’s no way Philly gets shut out again, right? They’ve proven that this younger lineup can hit lefties (example A), and Bumgarner has had his rough patches this year. I’m a firm believer in the whole regression to the mean thing, and I think even the Phillies can’t be shut out forever.
My second reason for picking Cole Hamels is his price. By making the jump from Bumgarner to Hamels, you save $2,100. That’s enough money to jump from Kelly Johnson to Mike Trout at your outfield spot. Bumgarner is exteremly overpriced for this trap game, and Hamels is a steal. Remember, it’s about overall value not just production.
My final point about this before I move on to the rest of my article is that the Giants hitters kinda stink right now. How’d Jacob deGrom do on Wednesday? Oh yeah, that’s right. He threw eight scoreless innings against San Fran. Hamels just threw seven scoreless innings on Sunday against the Braves (yeah I know the Braves suck, but hey, that’s still impressive). Save your money here and hope the Phillies give Hamels just enough run support to get the win.
Danny Salazar (SP, CLE) - $8,700
If Danny Salazar hadn’t let up an opposite field homer to Pedro Alvarez in the fifth inning on Sunday, I’m almost positive his price would be up near $10,000 today. The righty was missing every possible bat through four innings on Sunday, and I’m pretty sure the only reason the Pirates were able to come back was because I was at the game and I wanted to see a win. The chances for a home run sparking a big inning are less likely against a speedy and contact-hitting A’s offense. I’m taking my chances on Salazar in tournaments on Friday.
DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel
Derek Norris (C, SDP) - $2,400
The Padres have been pitiful as a team against lefties, but Derek Norris hasn’t fallen into that trap. He is sporting a 113 wRC+ against lefties and has a hit in each of the last five games that he has started. For that kind of upside, this is a great price.
Garrett Jones (1B, NYY) - $2,300
The Pesky Pole is calling Jones’ name. The first baseman has always had incredible power to right field, and he almost hit one out yesterday. Disregarding that 0-4 day, he had four hits in the previous three games, including two doubles. A close to minimum price might turn into a lot of value for Jones against a righty on Friday.
Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) - $2,800
Whether you’re risking it with a Rangers stack on Friday or not, Odor deserves a long look. His game log screams consistency, and he has four RBI in his last three games. His .315 wOBA against righties is exciting as well.
Evan Longoria (3B, TAM) - $2,900
Although his wOBA against lefties is far better, he still has a respectable .322 wOBA against righties this year. After a road stretch of 11 hits in seven games including a homer and five RBI, Longoria is trying to keep his hitting streak alive at home. He could very well take Colin McHugh yard on Friday.
Jung-ho Kang (SS, PIT) - $2,500
Kang, like Longoria, is far better against lefties than righties. Also, Lance Lynn is not a hittable arm by any means. However, $2,500 for a clean-up hitter in a good lineup is too cheap to pass up. Kang had a four-game hitting streak before Carlos Martinez shut the Pirates down last night, and I expect him to start up another streak tonight.
DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel
Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) - $3,800
Obviously I can’t argue with any choices to play Coors Field players. However, I think CarGo is a must on Friday. He’s below $4,000, which is rare for a middle hitter at Coors. He has also racked up nine hits in his past four games, including three doubles last night. Gonzalez hits righties like Shelby Miller far better than lefties, so he’s in a good spot Friday.
Adam Jones (OF, BAL) - $3,300
Jones is sporting a .388 wOBA against lefties this year, and he’s certainly had his ups and downs. Apart from his 0-4 game yesterday, he had five hits in the previous five games, including four doubles and a homer. Jones is worth a look at this price against a lefty on Friday.
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) - $2,300
In the midst of a four-game hitting streak, Polanco has been slowly turning his season around from the leadoff spot. When Polanco gets on base, he steals more. At a minimal price point, Polanco is worth the risk against a good pitcher in Lynn.
Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!
DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6PM on 7/10
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