RADIO
July 31, trade deadline day in the MLB, is always one of the most anticipated days of the regular season. A trade can turn a playoff contender into a champion. The same can be said about trades in fantasy baseball. Making the right moves at the right time can make or break a season. Every Wednesday throughout the regular season we will gather relevant trade questions and dig into the trades.. To submit your question, use the RotoBaller chat or hit me up on Twitter @JakeBogey.
With about two weeks in the books, fantasy owners are already salivating over potential trade offers. People love tinkering with their lineups and oftentimes, early in the season, the small sample size that has occurred so far can drastically change fantasy owners outlook on a player. There are two things to remember at this point in the season when considering trades:
- Don't freak out! - Most full time players have had about 30 plate appearances thus far this season. That's just 5% of their season total. Do not judge a player by his first week. As long as a player is healthy and his situation hasn't changed, there is really no reason to expect much different than what you did a week ago in the preseason.
- Seek out owners who are freaking out - There are going to be people in your league that do let the first week of play warp their opinions on certain players. If someone wants to give you a top-10 player for Adrian Gonzalez after his huge week, be my guest and make the deal. If the Robinson Cano owner is worried about his slow start, take advantage and deal for Cano. Be smart and be aggressive.
With those two points in mind, let's jump into it. Each week we will be looking at a few Buy Low and Sell High candidates as well as reviewing a few real life Rotoballer user trade offers.
Buy Low
This is one that almost anyone can identify. Gordon has a .314 career BABIP and is currently sitting at .091 for the year. The good news is he's still drawing walks, four in five games, and getting on base (.348 OBP this season). To me, this means that Gordon is seeing the ball just fine, but has been unlucky. With the rest of the Royals lineup looking strong, Gordon should see more men on base and have more protection than ever.
Lester has been in the news more than any other pitcher in the league thus far and it's not because of his pitching. It's well documented by now that Lester either can't or won't throw over to first base. Guess what, I don't care. Is it going to make for a story throughout the year? Yes. Could it possibly cost the Cubs a game or two at some point? Sure. However, he's coming off the best year of his career and moving from the AL to the NL, generally a good thing for pitchers. He's gotten off to a rough start with a 7.84 ERA, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is just 1.62 signalling that he has pitched just fine. Steamer projected Lester for a 3.26 ERA with 13 wins. I think he betters those numbers and finishes a top-15 starting pitcher option.
Sell High
Adrian Gonzalez
Adrian Gonzalez just had his best week of the year. You can take that to the bank. Gonzalez blasted five home runs, scoring ten runs and batting .556 in the process. He's a great player, and the run production will be there due to the quality of the Dodgers lineup, but I still see him as the mid-third-rounder as projected in the offseason. Steamer projected Gonzalez for 24 HR in the preseason and I still think that's about right. Aside from the power surge, Gonzalez is sporting an abnormally high BABIP (.526) and a career low strikeout rate. If you can get a top-10 player for Gonzalez, cash-in on the hot start while you still have the chance.
What is going on in Atlanta! When the Kimbrel trade went down right before the beginning of the season, my initial reaction on Grilli was to grab him, but don't expect much because Atlanta wouldn't win many games.
@TuesMorningBear this Atlanta team is truly terrible. They may not win 61 games let alone have that many SVO
— Jake (@JakeBogey) April 6, 2015
Well, thus far Atlanta is making me look very bad. They are 6-1 headed into Tuesday and Grilli has registered a save in four of those wins already. Grilli has a decent track record as a closer, so there is some name value there, and if people believe in this Atlanta team he should have very high trade value. I personally still don't believe in Atlanta, so I'd move Grilli now. Check in with teams that drafted closers who have already lost the closing gig (I'm looking at you Brett Cecil and LaTroy Hawkins) and see if they will bite on Grilli while his value is peaking.
Trade Analysis
As mentioned above, each week I'll be reviewing three trades that have either been proposed or completed by RotoBaller users. If you would like to be a part of next week's column please submit relevant questions to Twitter @JakeBoey or in the RotoBaller chat with myself.
Trade 1: Sonny Gray, Alex Wood and Paul Goldschmidt FOR Josh Donaldson, Matt Harvey, Garrett Richards and Koji Uehara
@JakeBogey I have v mart, pujols and goldy...would a gray, Alex wood & goldy for Donaldson, Harvey, G. Richards, koji trade be worth it?
— CoCo Money (@nolanxryan7) April 13, 2015
I don't like giving up top-10 players without getting one back. This user needed pitching, and he's trying desperately to chase it down by trading from a place of excess. However, this early in the season, there is no need to try to chase what you perceive as a "need." Let the season shake out a bit before you go shopping for your perceived weaknesses. How can you truly know what your team's weakness is this early in the season? In this case, I'm holding on to my assets (especially the top 10 commodity in Goldschmidt) and will look to trade in a few weeks when I have a better feel for my team.
Trade 2: Edwin Encarnacion and Kris Bryant FOR Miguel Cabrera
19:31 Guest - Bethanie: i really want Miggy in my team, what deal can i work out? (main guys i have: felix, lester, harvey, EE, betts)...i can overpay for miggy but dnt wanna cripple myself...i offered EE+kris bryant first
This is a situation we see so often in fantasy. You love a player and want them on your fantasy team. Many fantasy writers will tell you that fantasy is for fun and if having that specific player on your team makes it more fun and it's a semi-realistic deal then go for it. I don't completely disagree, I just think winning is more fun, so I'm rejecting this deal for Cabrera. Encarnacion and Cabrera were ranked around the same spot on pre-draft big boards. Even though Cabrera is off to a scorching start I'm going to trust that Encarnacion will return similar value as expected and Bryant will be up in a few weeks making him one of the most sought after young players in fantasy.
Trade 3: Max Scherzer and Lorenzo Cain FOR Carlos Gomez
19:23 Guest - Earlean: Should i trade Scherzer and Cain for Gomez?
Generally speaking, I want to grab as many top 10 players as possible and Carlos Gomez is certainly that. However, this is a trade where I'm going to keep the pieces (Scherzer and Cain) over the stud (Gomez). Part of my reasoning is that Scherzer is a stud in his own right. He's a top 10 SP with the potential to be the #1 pitcher in the game. He's on a great team that should help him rack up a bunch of wins while maintaining his traditionally great ERA and K numbers.
Scherzer aside, what really intrigues me in this deal is the potential of Lorenzo Cain. His trajectory is remarkably similar to Carlos Gomez. Both players came up as speed-first light hitting defensive outfielders. Gomez eventually developed the power we expect of him today, launching 19 HR during his sixth season in the bigs after having never reached double digits in the previous five years. Cain is entering his sixth season this year, also having never reached double digit homers, and while he is a little older than Gomez was at the time of his breakout, Cain has shown early this season that he is capable of hitting the long ball. He launched a home run in the first week of this season after hitting just four all of last year. Cain has already proven that he can hit for average (.301 in 2014) and tear up the basepaths (28 SB in 2014). If Cain can develop into even a 12-15 HR guy (something teammates believe is possible based on a story told on the 4/13 ESPN Fantasy Focus) he could return 90% of the value that Gomez gives you. Add Scherzer to that mix and you can't make this deal.
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