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Expert Week 10 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD props. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season heads into Week 10 with another full slate of intriguing touchdown opportunities. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Ollie Gordon II, RB - Miami Dolphins (+110, BetMGM) (46% Novig)
Gordon has had a workhorse role since De’Von Achane went down in Week 3. He has four touchdowns in the last six weeks, and his red-zone usage has been among the best in the league.
Despite barely seeing the field in the first two games, Gordon’s 27 red-zone rushing attempts rank 11th in football, between Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey.
Ollie Gordon with a solid run up the middle to get Miami closer to at least getting a chance to tie the game heading into halftime. https://t.co/RYnpqOc28S
— Jason Sarney - Dolphins Wire (@Jason_Sarney) November 8, 2026
Malik Willis is out for this game, and there is a chance Miami could lean even more run-heavy with Kyle McCord under center.
It’s an elite matchup for Gordon, as Indianapolis allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and the 8th-most rushing touchdowns.
BET: 1.0 unit to win 1.1 units.
Zach Charbonnet, RB - Seattle Seahawks (+115, FanDuel) (46% Novig)
Charbonnet led the Seattle backfield in Week 9, playing on 57% of snaps and handling 48.5% of the rushing share. It was a noticeable bump from his usage in the first game of the season, and could grow even more in Week 10.
Charbonnet has three red-zone carries in two games, compared to two carries for Jadarian Price. At worst, he is splitting red-zone work with the rookie, but given his usage history, I would favor Charbonnet getting even more work. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025 while sharing the backfield with Kenneth Walker.
It's not often we get a lead running back with a true goal-line role at plus-money, especially in a matchup this good. Las Vegas has allowed the most rushing yards per game to running backs, and the fourth-most touchdowns to opposing backs.
BET: 1.0 unit to win 1.15 units.
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More Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Justin Jefferson, WR - Minnesota Vikings (+145, DraftKings), (41% Novig)
Across 54 games from 2020-2023 with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, Jefferson caught 354 passes on 518 targets and averaged 98.9 yards per game. He scored a touchdown in 28 of those 54 contests.
Quarterback play is the only thing holding back the production for one of the league's most talented wide receivers. Cousins represents a clear upgrade at the position and should immediately impact Jefferson's production.
#Vikings WR Justin Jefferson said it was “much needed” to have Kirk Cousins back in Minnesota:
“He understands how the defenses play, especially covering me. And he understands the plays that are kind of my plays. He understands the timing and the windows to throw those type of plays. But he also doesn't force those types of plays to me, and he just left the game come to me.”
— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) November 12, 2026
Green Bay has been a tough matchup for opposing passing attacks, ranking sixth in EPA per pass allowed and 10th in passing defense DVOA. Despite those strong numbers, they have still allowed solid production to opposing wideouts, surrendering nine touchdowns in nine games.
With an upgrade at QB and an important divisional matchup on tap, this a great price for Jefferson to find the end zone.
BET: 1.0 unit to win 1.45 units.
Matthew Golden, WR - Green Bay Packers (+166, Caesars), (37% Novig)
Golden has been one of our favorite anytime touchdown bets all season. His usage in scoring position has been outstanding, and the production has followed. He has five touchdowns on the season, with three of them coming in the last four games.
Josh Jacobs is out again, removing a significant touchdown threat from the running game and potentially incentivizing the Packers to throw more in scoring position.
Golden has 16 red-zone targets this season, fifth-most in the league. His 28% target share this season is the seventh-best mark. He's been used as a true alpha wide receiver, making this price a strong value.
The matchup is brutal, as Minnesota has been stingy with production allowed to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed just four touchdowns to the position in eight games and the fourth-fewest yards per game.
BET: 1.0 unit to win 1.66 units.
Colby Parkinson, TE - Los Angeles Rams (+290, DraftKings), (26% Novig)
Parkinson has been banged up over the past few weeks, but he's had a significant role when he's been active. With Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Terrance Ferguson all out for the foreseeable future, there are plenty of opportunities for the remaining Rams pass-catchers.
Parkinson has played over 60% of snaps in his last four games, and he's earned five red-zone targets in those contests. Nacua was also active in each of those games and earned a whopping 11 red-zone targets, so there is significantly more work now that he's out.
The matchup is another positive, as the Cardinals have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in nine games. Parkinson's lone touchdown this season came against them a few weeks back. Now, he gets another opportunity with a potentially much larger role on tap.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.45 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
Hunter Henry, TE - New England Patriots (+1900, FanDuel), (6% Novig)
If you haven't heard about tight ends against the Lions by this point in the NFL season, you may have been living under a rock. The production is just too great to ignore, with 704 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns allowed through eight games. No other team that has already had their bye has allowed more than six touchdowns to the position, and only two other teams have allowed more than seven.
This price is only available because Henry has been playing through a foot injury. He played just 13% of snaps two weeks ago before getting back to 49% of snaps last week. He had played more than 64% of snaps in every game up to that point.
The first-touchdown bet makes sense here, as he's been cleared to play, and betting on him to score first reduces the risk that he aggravates the injury and sees limited snaps again.
BET: 0.1 units to win 1.9 units.
