Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 10 - James Cook III, Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, more

November 14, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 10 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Dare I say it - I think we are on a roll! Last week we discussed Javonte Williams (20-101-1 rushing, 4-23 receiving), Chuba Hubbard (16-79 rushing, 4-17 receiving), and Jonah Coleman (17-57-1 rushing, 4-31 receiving) as our top backs other than the top bell-cows.

Heck, we even got a Seth McGowan touchdown and a pretty respectable 6-45-1 (at .2% rostership in the Milly). If the Colts had given him more touches instead of Jonathan Taylor (who they ultimately, bewilderingly, did not trade ahead of the deadline), I think he could have had a really big day. The only real big oversight on my part was being out on Kenneth Walker III, who had three touchdowns to pace the position. I swear every time I fade that guy, he goes off, and now he carries a questionable injury tag going into Sunday's game.

Let's see if we can figure out who we want to use in our lineups this week, shall we? This week, I've enhanced my Thunder Dan Matchup Grade to factor in some of the advanced stats I've been using over the last several weeks to create separation between the top plays and the rest of the field. Also, don't forget this analysis and the data I collect can apply to prop betting, too! Alright, let's get into the Week 10 matchups already!

Week 10 Running Back Matchups

These are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN.

This week there are 3 more columns: opponent EPA per rush attempt, opponent YBC per attempt, and opponent explosive run rate.

• EPA/Rush = Expected Points Added Per Rushing Attempt
• YBC/Att = Yards Gained BEFORE Contact Per Rushing Attempt
• Explosive Run Rate = Percentage of running plays where the defense allows 10+ yards

We now have NINE weeks of data, and larger sample sizes make our data more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, offensive schemes, projected role and usage, the quality of their opponent, and then taking an educated guess at the projected game script for each back this week.

Jaylen Warren isn't on the main slate this week, but is the only back out of the top 10. Go smash all his props though; he's about to run over the Bengals AGAIN.

Three High-Priced Running Backs

None of these backs are currently projecting for big rostership this week, so it might be a week where we aren't trying to cram in a high-priced back into cash games. I'm not really sure why, but Bijan Robinson looks like the chalkiest expensive back, and he's not even in consideration for me this week. Sure, he's awesome, but we've seen him flop multiple times this year when the Falcons get in a negative game script, and I have a lot of respect for the Chiefs defense (and little respect for Atlanta to be consistent on offense week to week).

Kenneth Walker III ($9,200 DK, $9,800 FD)

There are really two issues with K9 this week. The injury designation late in the week is never something we want to see. Even if he's ruled in by tomorrow afternoon, does he get his full workload when rookie Emmett Johnson has shown that he's more than capable of producing with touches?

He's the most expensive back on the slate, and while he's been matchup-proof for the most part, his matchup isn't so elite that I'm willing to overlook the price and playing time concerns. I'm probably out this week (gulp), and perhaps I'm rooting for him to sit, so we can just plug Johnson into cash games at his cheap price tag.

Christian McCaffrey ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD) 

McCaffrey has the top-rated matchup again this week. He goes from getting a soft Vegas run defense to another really bad run-stopping unit in Dallas. The biggest hang-up is the lightened workload, as he handled only 42% of the rushing attempts for the Niners last week and caught a season-low two passes for just 19 yards.

His touchdown potential and efficiency per touch are unrivaled, but the Niners have fed Kaelon Black double-digit carries now two weeks in a row. That feels like their plan regardless of the game script, so CMC becomes a GPP-only type play at his price, despite the obvious factors working in his favor.

Let's be clear, this is not a fade by any means; you should absolutely use McCaffrey in some tournaments as this game has a crazy-high 55.5-point total and McCaffrey has 3-touchdown upside.

James Cook III ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD)

Cook might be my favorite target of the three high-priced backs this week. The Jets are a tough team to figure out, but we just saw K9 have his way with them last week, and Cook is more likely to have a Walker-like workload than CMC.

He had a season-high 31 rushing attempts last week! He's handled 20+ carries in all but one game this season. While Josh Allen does steal some touchdowns, Cook has found paydirt eight times already this season and was only held scoreless just once (back in Week 1).

James Cook III has at least one rushing TD in 7 straight games.

He already holds Buffalo's franchise record with 8 consecutive games 👀

BUFvsMIN on ESPN
Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jjvltvmhUo

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 10, 2026

The Bills are implied for 30.5 points in this game and are touchdown favorites. We love backs in big total games that are heavy favorites, as it sets up to be a very favorable game script. If we look at last season, Cook only faced the Jets once, as the second meeting was at the end of the year when Buffalo had already clinched. How'd he fare in that game? Cook ran for 132 yards on 21 carries and had two touchdowns.

He's too cheap for his upside on this slate, making him one of my favorite tournament plays. The Bills showed last week that they can impose their will on even the best defenses, so I'm pretty sure this Jets defense doesn't stand much of a chance. Just hold onto that football, James!

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Three Value Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard ($7,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Mr. Hubbard is starting to make an appearance in this article just about every week. He didn't find the end zone last week, but still delivered a solid performance against a good Broncos defense. This week, he gets the Saints and their 30th-ranked DVOA run defense in a game with a 49-point total.

The Panthers are slight road underdogs, but the line is moving in their favor, and I like them to win this game. Why? Because they are the more physical football team, and I think they can win in the trenches.

The Saints trail only Indianapolis and Las Vegas (more on those two terrible units in a minute) in EPA per rush this season. They got a reprieve last week when they faced the Browns' lousy run game, but they've been steamrolled by any legitimate opponents this year.

I think the holes will be there for Hubbard, and he's shown that he can do a lot of the work on his own, too, with the 10th-best yards after contact per rush (3.45) among backs with at least 50 attempts this season.

He looks cash game viable to me, especially on FanDuel where he's a little better of a value.

Zach Charbonnet ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD)

Charbonnet answered any questions about his explosiveness last week when he ran over the Cardinals for 77 yards on 16 attempts. He led the backfield in touches, with Jadarian Price also handling 9 carries and four receptions.

There's enough potential production here for both players to eat against the lowly Raiders, and with Drew Lock under center this week again (and nursing an injury of his own), I would expect that we get a heavy dose of the Seattle run game in this one.

This checks all the boxes for me. A solid favorite (-6.5), second-best matchup on the board, and a potentially positive game script that would lead to an even bigger workload for Charbonnet this week. He didn't score last week, but we know that he was the short-yardage and goal-line back last season when he split time with K9, so I would expect him to get first crack at those carries again.

I think we found a very good cash game play on DraftKings here, as Charbs' price there is very attractive. Seattle's run game has been very inconsistent this season, but the return of Charbonnet to the lineup is primed to improve their production, and this matchup against the Raiders has been the gift that keeps on giving for opposing backs this season.

Ollie Gordon II ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD)

I'm not seeing too many people on Gordon this week, which is fine. I want him all to myself. So, never mind...he's a bad play. There's nothing to see here. The Dolphins are terrible and are playing a backup quarterback. They will probably only score 6 points this week. Look away!

Gordon has finally asserted himself as the lead back for the Dolphins, handling 83% and 76% of the carries over the last two weeks. He was held in check last week by a pretty good Detroit run defense, but he had 100-yard games against the Vikings (see below) and the Jets this season, as well as a solid 18-88 performance against the Bengals.

53 yards for Ollie Gordon II

MIAvsMIN on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/AC6Jer243h

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

That run against the Vikings really got my attention. Gordon is not just a 3-yard-a-cloud-of-dust type plodder; he has some real burst.

Miami's offense has the potential to do absolutely nothing in this game; it's true. But I don't think that will be the case. Let's face it, Malik Willis wasn't moving this offense, and if the Dolphins lean into the run game more with Kyle McCord under center, it might be exactly what they need to get going.

Indianapolis has been atrocious this year, and you know this if you have been reading this column every week. Bhayshul Tuten and Javonte Williams both cruised to 100-yard rushing games the last two weeks, but their backups also did major work, too. Chris Rodriguez went 6-41-1 two weeks ago, and Tyler Goodson went 12-77 last week for Dallas.

Sometimes you have to play these ugly spots. The Dolphins could score only one time this week, but if it's Gordon who gets that touchdown and he racks up close to 100 yards on the ground, he'll smash this price tag.

Be greedy when others are fearful!

Good luck, everyone, and thanks for reading.

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