College Football Betting Picks - Expert Predictions, CFB Picks Against the Spread: Week 6

October 9, 2026

Mike's Week 6 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, October 10, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

I finished at .500 on the picks for the second straight week, but I lost points because of the state of Michigan and the MAC. I'll do better this week. I'm off to a good start. The black cloud is lifting. I can feel it.

I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway. If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.

There are only three of those this week, and there are much better spots to go with FBS games. I'm not messing with any of the FCS ones. We have 49 FBS vs. FBS games on Saturday, and we've got some good ones with nearly everyone in conference play.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 6

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.

I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.

If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.

We'll try to get back on the winning side of things this week. We've got a few really good spots.

(7) Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

There isn't any juice on this line at all for Indiana. Yes, the Nebraska offense is playing well under Anthony Colandrea. The defense has looked really good under new coordinator Rob Aurich.

Matt Rhule has two really good coordinators, so he can concentrate on managing the game. That's what good head coaches do. The problem is that Nebraska has lost a staggering 31 consecutive games to teams ranked in the top 25.

Rhule himself is 2-25 in his career against top-25 teams (0-8 at Nebraska). This is far more than a trend at this point. We will probably see a spirited effort out of Nebraska, but what I saw from Indiana last week should terrify Nebraska fans.

Pick: Indiana -7.5

Texas A&M at (14) Missouri (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Missouri put the screws on a good Florida offense last week. The Aggies don't have a good offense...or much of a chance.

Pick: Missouri -3.5

Central Florida at (18) Oklahoma State (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The UCF defense is the strength of this team. Keyone Jenkins has played well in relief of Alonza Barnett III. Barnett is likely to be out for at least a couple more weeks.

The offense wasn't moving that well even with him in there. Oklahoma State wants to go fast and score a ton of points. UCF does a great job of slowing games down. Something has to give. I don't see an outright win, but more than a touchdown could be a chore for the Pokes.

Pick: Central Florida +9.5

North Carolina at (25) Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm not surprised that Pitt is favored. The North Carolina offense is an unnatural disaster. You don't need an experienced quarterback to run it 60 times.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5

Arizona (-3.5) at West Virginia

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This one is a bit surprising. Arizona lost Tre Spivey for the rest of the season with a broken foot. Giovanni Richardson was injured about an hour after returning to the lineup last week.

The Arizona WR room is a M*A*S*H* unit. No part of me trusts the West Virginia defense, but what if Arizona is down three receivers? I trust the veteran quarterback, but this is a road game, and West Virginia can score with anyone.

Pick: West Virginia +3.5

Wake Forest (-3.5) at North Carolina State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Wake is by far the second-best team in the ACC. I know this is a rivalry. The teams have played 118 times, and every year since 1910. The road team has won three straight in the series. That trend continues this year.

Pick: Wake Forest -3.5

Tulane at Army (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This has been a rough season for Tulane. They only beat the Southern Miss team that got demolished by Troy on Tuesday by three points. Army just lost to Louisiana Tech. This is not the marquee matchup that we thought it might be.

Pick: Army -3.5

Sacramento State at Bowling Green (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Bowling Green just beat Miami of Ohio with a backup quarterback. That incarnation of the Redhawks is likely better than the Hornets...

Pick: Bowling Green -7.5

Ball State at Northwestern (-36.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Oh wow. I expected a big line, but not this big. Considering Northwestern almost covered Colorado by this and that Ball State is by far the worst team that the Wildcats have faced this year, it's certainly possible.

Pick: Northwestern -36.5

South Carolina at (16) Florida (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Shane Beamer is a dead man walking. No one wants to admit it. Florida got gouged by Jamal Roberts, and will be by Matt Fuller as well. That doesn't mean SC can win this.

Pick: Florida -12.5

Old Dominion at Appalachian State (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line is on the rise because the Monarchs are not. Old Dominion hasn't beaten an FBS team this year and is 0-5 against the spread this year. The trend continues.

Pick: Appalachian State -9.5

Miami (OH) (-2.5) at Massachusetts 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Not with a backup quarterback. UMass makes history with win number five here.

Pick: Massachusetts +2.5

(1) Texas (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma at Dallas 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Texas vs Oklahoma - Since 2000

Wins:
-Oklahoma 273
-Texas 240

National Championships:
-Oklahoma 1
-Texas 1

Conference Championships:
-Oklahoma 14
-Texas 3

Heisman Trophy Winners:
-Oklahoma 4
-Texas 0

Head to Head:
-Oklahoma leads 17-10 https://t.co/U0DcAyjMhJ

— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) October 8, 2026

This line opened at 9.5. You really have to look now to find it over 7. With rivalries like this, you just never know. I rarely bet this game for that reason.

This year I am comfortable betting the under at 40.5. Both defenses border on elite. The Oklahoma offense is painful to watch, and Texas hasn't been world-beaters either.

I'm leaving the spread alone, but I'm smashing the under. If I had to pick, I want Oklahoma to stay within a touchdown. A lot of sharps are on Oklahoma, so I'll wager a point on it.

Pick: Oklahoma +7.5

Stanford at (3) Notre Dame (-39.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wake covered it. Does Notre Dame even want to? I don't like this line, but I like Stanford even less.

Pick: Notre Dame -39.5

(9) Mississippi (-9.5) at Vanderbilt

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Mississippi needs a get-right game, but are they really going to push Kewan Lacy in a game like this? I question whether they will. That has me lowering the bet.

Pick: Mississippi -9.5

(21) UCLA at (13) Oregon (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is too high. It has nothing to do with Dylan Raiola starting instead of Dante Moore. Raiola will do fine. I also think the UCLA offense will do fine, and the defense is good enough to reel Oregon in.

I don't know that UCLA wins outright, but I feel like this is a 10-point game at the worst.

Pick: UCLA +11.5

(22) Houston at Kansas State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm surprised that Houston isn't favored. I know that the Little Apple can be tough, but I trust Conner Wiegman a lot more than I trust Avery Johnson.

Pick: Houston +2.5

Duke (-6.5) at Georgia Tech

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Is Duke’s Nate Sheppard RB1 of the 2028 NFL draft? Sheeeeeeesh (Yep) https://t.co/p81q3fIn5X

— Randall Slifer (@RandallSlifer) September 25, 2026

Nate Sheppard exists. This is way too low!

Pick: Duke -6.5

Virginia Tech (-9.5) at California

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I'm not even sure a 10-point spread would chase me off at this point. Cal is one of the most undisciplined teams I've watched this year. They are making mental mistakes that just should not happen in Week 6.

Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5

Illinois (-2.5) at Michigan State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Michigan State is likely better than the Purdue team that just beat Illinois. Bret Bielema's seat is hotter than Luke Fickell's ever was, in no small part because Illinois can afford to fire Bielema.

Pick: Michigan State +2.5

Charlotte at North Texas (-28.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Charlotte is making a strong case for the worst FBS team. I have to think the Mean Green cover this.

Pick: North Texas -28.5

Tulsa at Navy (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This looked like a banger about a month ago. Since then, Navy lost to FAU and Tulsa lost to Arkansas. I still like Tulsa here because of the way teams have thrown on Navy this year.

Pick: Tulsa +1.5

Eastern Michigan (-6.5) at Akron

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Is Eastern Michigan good now? Is the world prepared for that kind of revelation? Am I?

Pick: Eastern Michigan -6.5

Buffalo at Toledo (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It was the best of teams. It was the worst of teams. Charles Dickens knew MAC ball.

Pick: Toledo -20.5

Central Michigan at Ohio (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Chips are falling apart. Ohio is barely together. Oh, what I wouldn't give for this to stand alone as part of midweek MACtion.

Pick: Ohio -2.5

Kent State at Western Michigan (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It was everything Western could do to hold off Buffalo last week. I don't buy any part of this.

Pick: Kent State +13.5

Connecticut at Temple (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I'm looking forward to this one. The Temple defense is legit. Kalieb Osborne vs. Ajani Sheppard is going to be excellent. I'm pretty certain this will be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.

Pick: Temple -3.5

Rice at East Carolina (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Rice defense has played well because the offense keeps other teams off the field. So far, the Owls haven't been able to take the show on the road.

Pick: East Carolina -9.5

Maryland at (5) Ohio State (-32.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Jeremiah Smith is going for 200+ again, isn't he?

11 catches, 206 yards, 2 TD.

Jeremiah Smith made a Heisman statement today against Iowa ? https://t.co/2vQv8mbzEZ

— 2StripesCPD (@2StripesCPD) October 3, 2026

Pick: Ohio State -32.5

(15) Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Hey, remember what happened the last time Tennessee played in Fayetteville? And we thought that Arkansas team was bad...

Pick: Tennessee -13.5

San Diego State at Oregon State (-15.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

One of these teams is a Pac-12 contender as we expected, but not the one we expected. Everyone who didn't offer him a scholarship owes Jesse Legree an apology. That's 137 FBS teams, by the way.

Jesse Legree's first 5 career collegiate football games:

5 receptions, 136 yards, 1 TD
8 rec., 240 yards, 2 TD
4 rec., 100 yards, 1 TD
6 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD
5 rec., 157 yards, 3 TD

An absolute STAR

https://t.co/SOUyJElTeP

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 4, 2026

Pick: Oregon State -15.5

(10) LSU (-8.5) at Kentucky 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

It has been awfully quiet down in Red Stick lately. Isn't Lane Kiffin about due to steal a baby or something similarly absurd?

Kentucky is cautiously optimistic, but they should be very cautious. Alabama carpet-bombed the Cats in Lexington, and they needed overtime to escape a collapsing South Carolina team.

LSU has shown up and taken care of business in every game (even the loss). If Sam Leavitt could quit throwing interceptions, this might be the elite team that ESPN was saying it was.

Pick: LSU -8.5

UAB at Memphis (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

One of the greatest rivalry trophies in the sport, a 100-lb bronze rack of ribs, returns today in the first Battle for the Bones between Memphis and UAB in 11 years. https://t.co/mm3ZcOcwRh

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 21, 2023

Forget the game, we're just here for this sweet trophy! While we're at it, that line seems at least a half-point too high.

Pick: UAB +14.5

Nevada (-9.5) at UTEP

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

UTEP could lose to anyone, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised. This team is a disaster in a beautiful stadium.

Pick: Nevada -9.5

North Dakota State (-3.5) at UNLV

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

NDSU is built a lot like the Memphis team that invaded Vegas and won. Never underestimate a coach and team that know how to win.

Pick: North Dakota State -3.5

Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

So this is where Vegas thinks CCU is? After back-to-back losses in winnable games at home, they may be right. I still want no part of this.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +3.5

(2) Georgia at (6) Alabama (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line flipped because bettors are hammering Alabama. The Tide haven't lost a regular-season game to Georgia since 2007. Kirby Smart is 2-7 against the Tide.

Those two wins were an SEC Championship and a National Championship Game. Surprisingly, this is only the second time that Georgia and Alabama have met when both teams are 5-0 or better. The first time was Halloween of 1942.

Hurricane Isaias is going to affect this game in some way. We still don't know the full impact. The latest reports have the weather possibly being clear by game time.

Many bettors, amateur or otherwise, were telling anyone who would listen to smash the under. This is precisely why I didn't. The weather is weird. You're not going to get that much of an advantage, especially if everyone is doing it.

I like the spread better on this anyway, and I still don't like it. If this is a slog, it favors Georgia. That might be the only way to ground that suddenly potent Alabama offense.

Pick: Alabama -1.5

(19) USC at Penn State (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

USC's floundering in the Eastern Time Zone is such a thing that people are smashing Penn State and chugging the juice on it. The Trojans are 3-7 straight up and 1-9 against the spread in the central or eastern time zone under Lincoln Riley.

I hate this because everyone else is on Penn State too. There is no way in hell I trust USC.

Pick: Penn State -1.5

Syracuse at Virginia (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Amari Odom got that Syracuse offense moving last week. Virginia played one of the worst games I've seen this year at Florida State.

Odom and those receivers are really good. The defense is really bad. I finally see Syracuse playing with a purpose.

Pick: Syracuse +9.5

Air Force (-7.5) at Northern Illinois

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line has plummeted, and I'm not sure why. I'm good with Air Force for under 10 points.

Pick: Air Force -7.5

James Madison (-7.5) at Georgia Southern

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Dukes are playing for a spot in a competition that didn't want to have to include them last year. They need the style points.

Pick: James Madison -7.5

Louisiana at Louisiana Tech (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Tech has won eight straight in this series. Only one of those was by less than a touchdown. That's not changing.

Pick: Louisiana Tech -2.5

Minnesota (-2.5) at Purdue

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Purdue is a very good passing team, but Minnesota may have the best pass rush in the entire country.

Pick: Minnesota -2.5

Kansas at (12) Utah (-15.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Utah defense has been very good, and the offense keeps finding new ways to beat people. Kansas just feels kind of lost.

Pick: Utah -15.5

(22) Boise State (-6.5) at Fresno State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Boise hasn't had the Milk Can since 2022, despite having what most perceive as the better team. Fresno is getting better by the game, but I'm not sure they can stop the run. That's a must for beating Boise.

Pick: Boise State -6.5

Hawaii at Arizona State (-20.5) 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I believe it, but I don't trust it.

Pick: Arizona State -20.5

I somehow ended up with 25 three-point picks again this week. I'm either going to make up a lot of ground or fail spectacularly. I maxed out four bets, which is also a season high. Good luck out there!

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