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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 3. Picks with confidence points for Week 3 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
We went from two perfect entries and 24 entries scoring 50 or more in Week 1 to a rough Week 2 for everyone in the RotoBaller Reader's Group. "protonjim" led the way this week with 38 points. Chad Monkey Shindig tallied 36. 50 Centi was the only other entry with 35 points.
Chad Monkey's big week puts him in first place in the group with 87 points. Brave and Crazy is only one point back. PAPIPEREZ is in third place with 85 points. 12 more entries have at least 80 points, so a lot of things can change each week.
It took 564 points to win our group last year, which was up from 544 in 2024. What will it take this year? The top 15 entries are still on pace to top last year's winning total.
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College Football Pick'em Overview.
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This week looks tough, especially with the London game on there. I see a few places that I like to steal points. Let's see where they are! I'm going big or claiming last place this week.
(1) North Carolina State over Vanderbilt
Hear me out...what if Virginia really is that good? What if Beau Pribula is their missing link? The Virginia defense was very good in 2025, but it was overshadowed by the offensive ineptitude.
If this was just a case of the offense catching up, we're overreacting to the Pack getting smacked in Charlottesville. Vanderbilt looked better with Jared Curtis in there, but he's still a freshman.
The North Carolina State defense was a wreck against Virginia, but I'm not overly impressed with Vanderbilt's offense. I still believe in CJ Bailey, but I might flip this. I'm already questioning most of my picks. Make sure you bookmark my X account for when I inevitably flip something.
(2) Northwestern over Colorado
This is the last game at the little palace by the lake. I'm sad to see it go.
Northwestern plays one more game at Martin Stadium (Saturday vs. Colorado) before they move into the New Ryan Field ? pic.twitter.com/k8XaScJL7e
— Six Point Sports (@SixPointSports) September 9, 2026
Is that enough for a Northwestern win? Maybe not, but Caleb Komolafe should be. Colorado's defense is better, but this Northwestern offense is solid.
Holding off a highly-ranked FCS South Dakota State team is a flex. The Jackrabbits might be better than Colorado. I'm good going for the points here with 68% picking Colorado in a road game.
(3) James Madison over San Diego State
The Aztecs haven't lost a home game since 2024. The offense struggled against UCLA, which is the same scheme that James Madison still uses. The Dukes aren't as talented on defense, but they are good enough to keep this offense from having its way.
The public is also heavy on JMU (74%). FPI has San Diego State at 59.1%, so I'm nervous about this one. I might move it down.
(4) North Carolina over Clemson
I wasn't overly impressed by Carolina's win over TCU in Dublin, but it was better than Clemson getting razed by LSU. Billy Edwards Jr. looked a lot better than Christopher Vizzina, and he is definitely more experienced.
This line is down six points since the open, and FPI has Clemson's chance at a win at only 53.3%. The spread has cratered, but there is still heavy juice (-175) on the Clemson money line.
What does that mean? Bettors are taking Clemson. With the FPI analysis being that close, I'm thinking of laying a bet on the Carolina money line, but you're not here for bets.
Vegas sets trends, and I use that when picking these. Vegas still likes Clemson, but with the Tigers getting 58% of the public vote, I'm comfortable taking the Carolina side.
(5) Auburn over Florida
You can call this stealing points if you want, but the analysis backs it up. Florida is being picked at a massive 75% in a place where they haven't won since 1999.
The unbalanced SEC schedules have something to do with that (Florida and Auburn haven't played since 2019 and haven't played every year since 2002). A lot of it is that Jordan-Hare is a tough place to play.
Jadan Baugh scares me, but Aaron Philo has been forced into mistakes. The Auburn defense has looked very good so far. I want to move this down, but where to?
I still feel better about this than the Heels, so I guess it stays here.
(6) Louisville over SMU
Louisville has found a SUPERSTAR in Lincoln Kienholz ?
750 total YDs, 7 total TDs, and 0 INTs through his first two starts ?
Against Villanova he became the first Cardinal with 275 pass yards, 2+ pass TD and 2+ rush TD in a half since Lamar Jackson ?
Heisman contender? ? pic.twitter.com/jukWOIgQrJ
— The College Sports Company (@CollegeSportsCo) September 13, 2026
Kevin Jennings is soooo 2024. It's Lincoln Kienholz taking the ACC by storm now. Miami is barely considered ACC this year since they play NONE of the ranked teams.
Jennings struggled against Florida State, and SMU has had almost no success running the ball. Vegas has Louisville favored (-115 on the money line), and I tend to agree.
(7) Mississippi over LSU
It's a massive love fest with LSU right now, but Ole Miss is the team that Lane Kiffin established and nurtured...then abandoned. This isn't some rivalry where the players don't know what it means.
The Magnolia Bowl is about the only rivalry that LSU has. The LSU side probably has no animosity, but the Rebels have had this circled since the Egg Bowl ended. Still, the public is 74% on LSU.
As good as Sam Leavitt has been for LSU, he is basically their run game. He has already thrown four interceptions in two games. The Mississippi defense can handle LSU, and we all know how Trinidad Chambliss plays in big games.
If we know one thing, we know that Kiffin will take whatever abuse the Oxford faithful throw his way and shield the team from it. Talent-wise, these teams aren't far apart (the Ole Miss salary is around $38 million, only $4 million less than LSU). I'm taking the home team that has played together for a year.
(8) Mississippi State over South Carolina
Few of his top throws vs Minnesota ⬇️
*Multiple type of throws: deep, intermediate, on the run, designed roll out, scramble, etc
*Off Play Action: 9/14,172yds (of his 227yds), 3tds
*180yds thrown between numbers
*Excited to watch him vs Sellers next week pic.twitter.com/Ow6Li9yi3d
— QB Spotlight (@QBspotlight) September 13, 2026
Kamario Taylor is everything that South Carolina fans think LaNorris Sellers is, only he has a better supporting cast. FPI is really high on Carolina (64.5%), but the Vegas spread is down to -4.
Taylor impressed me a lot last week in a hostile Minnesota environment. I know that all they have is boat rowers in the end zone. That crowing rooster is going to be tough for Taylor, but he looks like he can handle it.
(9) Virginia Tech over Maryland
Maryland looks better than last year, and the Hokies have had two really easy games. It's reflected by Vegas (VT -1.5) and FPI (VT 58.3%) having the Hokies as a slight favorite despite the public 92% on Tech.
If you're inclined to steal some points, this is a good place to do it. This speaks volumes about this week since I'm not at all sure about this, and it's my nine-point game.
(10) Arizona State over Kansas
I know that Arizona State still lost by 28 points to A&M, but it didn't feel like it. Kansas came up with some big defensive plays in the Border War to make it close. It still feels like Missouri was more in control over Kansas than A&M was over Arizona State.
We saw Arizona State figure some things out against the Aggies. The back half of the ASU defense can be had, but aside from Nik McMillan, Kansas can't stretch the field.
