Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Week 1 Player Props and Parlays (2026)

September 13, 2026

Expert NFL betting picks for Monday 9/14//26. Player props, same game parlays, and game picks for Monday Night Football game between the Broncos and Chiefs.

Hello everybody, and welcome to the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season finally kicks off this week, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content on the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.

This weekly article will focus on the Monday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically provide at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props, and a fun single-game parlay. Although this article will be published each week on Monday mornings, you can always feel free to check out our Discord Channel to see plays posted throughout the week.

This week's Monday night slate features a matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. This matchup should provide plenty of goodies for us to try to take advantage of. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 1 of Monday Night Football!

Monday Night Football Odds and Spread

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-148 ML)

Over/Under (43.5)

Monday Night Football Game Picks

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

We have a really fun Monday Night Football matchup for Week 1 when AFC West division rival Denver travels to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos finished 2025 one game shy of the Super Bowl after Bo Nix went down with an injury in the divisional round, and Kansas City missed the playoffs after losing Patrick Mahomes II mid-season.

This game figures to be a defensive battle, given that the total is currently hovering around 43.5. There is good reason for this total as well, as both of these teams allowed fewer than 20 points per game in 2025 and each ranked inside the top six in this category.

In 2025, the Chiefs and Broncos met twice, with an average of 37 points per game scored. That being said, Mahomes did not play in the second game due to a season-ending injury. Still, it is worth noting that no game in this rivalry has gone over the total of 43.5 since a New Year's Day matchup in 2023 that resulted in a 27-24 Chiefs victory.

I think we could see a lot of the same tonight during the opening week of the season, as these teams have become very familiar with each other over the previous couple of seasons, and both will still be relying on strong defenses.

In addition to ranking inside the top six in points per game allowed, both teams also ranked inside the top 10 in terms of total yards per game allowed. The total sits low for a reason and is certainly worth considering a play on the under.

The Pick: UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Monday Night Football Player Props

Bo Nix OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-109)

It will be hard to find props where I like taking the over tonight, but Nix's rushing yards prop is one of them. I definitely do not want to get on board with his passing yards, given the fact that Kansas City ranked eighth-best in the league in 2025 by allowing an average of just 205 passing yards per game to the quarterback position.

The Chiefs did, however, allow an average of over 19 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, which ranked in the bottom half of the league. In two games against the Chiefs, Nix carried the ball 12 times for 50 rushing yards and eclipsed this total in one of those games.

BO NIX FOR THE LEAD!

NYGvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/AQFJMRMNn4

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

Additionally, Nix rushed for 20 or more yards in nine total games, including the playoffs. He also finished the season with 25+ rushing yards in three straight games. While he is returning from a broken ankle that kept him out of the AFC Championship, all signs point to him being fully ready to go in this one.

Kenneth Walker III UNDER 61.5 rushing yards (-113)

I know the Chiefs are going to want to start the 2026 season by getting their new acquisition heavily involved, but this matchup against Denver may not be the best spot to do so. In 2025, Denver was stout versus the running back position, as they allowed an average of just 71.8 rushing yards per game to backs, which ranked second-best in the league.

In 2025, only five running backs managed to eclipse this total against the Broncos as well. Walker certainly has the ability to get there, but against this defense, I would not bank on it. He also failed to achieve 62 rushing yards in eight total games last season.

Walker was also heavily involved in the Seahawks' passing game and is expected to be utilized similarly in the Chiefs' offense. This type of utilization could take away from some carries and keep him from getting over the total here.

Wil Lutz OVER 1.5 field goals made (-134)

Having a game with a mid-to-low total means we have to get a bit creative in order to find some plays that hopefully cash, and that is what we are doing here with Wil Lutz for the Broncos. Lutz was an extremely accurate kicker in 2025, making 28 of his 32 attempted field goals.

Lutz also made two or more field goals in 10 total games last season, including the playoffs. Lutz also went 7-for-7 on field goals attempted against the Chiefs, going over 1.5 in both games. This Chiefs' defense is very much a bend-and-don't-break type of defense, which means the Broncos should have just enough success to land within field goal range on a few drives.

Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay

This is a new section of the article compared to seasons past, where we will build a fun same-game parlay for you all to consider. As these are parlays, it is always recommended to scale down and make these bets a little more conservatively, as we will need multiple legs to go right in order to hit. The legs I like tonight include:

• Game total UNDER 49.5
• Denver Broncos +8.5
• RJ Harvey OVER 16.5 receiving yards
• Total odds: +238 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We already discussed the reasons for the under above, and it really makes sense to go ahead and tease the Broncos up to +8.5 along with the total here. I fully expect this game to be close, and quite frankly, I am not sure the better team is favored here. Both defensive units are strong, which should make for a close and low-scoring game.

RJ Harvey has had a great camp, and all signs point to him having a major impact in the passing game, which is why we like him to go over 16.5 receiving yards. In 2025, Harvey was heavily involved in the passing game near the end of the season.

Big-time effort by RJ Harvey to stay on his feet to pick up first down

DENvsLV on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/QQCd0aD3R3

— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025

Over the Broncos' final five games, including the playoffs, Harvey hauled in 19 receptions on 27 targets for 177 receiving yards and one touchdown. He also managed to eclipse this total in four of those five games. With the game expected to be close, Harvey could certainly see some dump-offs late in the game.

While the Chiefs are not incredibly susceptible to receiving backs, they did allow nearly 30 receiving yards per game to running backs in 2025, and Harvey was able to eclipse this total in both games against them, hauling in eight receptions for 53 receiving yards.

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