MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 8/26/26)

August 26, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 8/26/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

Last Wednesday, we had a big day with a lot of success on the bets posted in this very article. Let's see if I can do it again! I've been up drinking coffee and chewing over the data for all of today's games, and I have landed on four game bets and another five player props (all pitching props today, sorry, no hitters!)

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all use the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction site—Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee that sportsbooks charge for using their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similar to how investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users aren't playing against the books, they can make more money per wager they win, and they can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

MLB Moneyline Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:30 AM ET

Cleveland Guardians (-133) at L.A. Angels

Yes, Grayson Rodriguez is coming off seven strong innings against the Astros. But he's been pretty hittable this season, and the Guardians are now 5-0 against the Angels on the season after winning 8-6 in extra innings. Cleveland sends a good lefty to the mound in Joey Cantillo today, and we saw his teammate and fellow lefty Parker Messick shut this Angels team down earlier in the series.

MLB First Five Bets

Detroit Tigers -0.5 First Five Spread (+113) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The moneyline is a tad juiced here at -130, so I am going to be a bit more aggressive and take the F5 run line. The Tigers have been very good with Troy Melton (1.60 ERA) on the mound this year, and the Rays have failed to fix Freddy Peralta just yet, as he's allowed three earned runs or more in three of his four starts with his new team.

Tampa is 0-4 on the F5 moneyline in Peralta's four starts with the team, and the Tigers have been pretty good against RHP lately (98 wRC+ over the last two weeks).

MLB Team Totals

N.Y. Mets over 3.5 runs (-104) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Dustin May)

The Mets have the second-best wRC+ against RHP over the last two weeks at 132 and are facing a pitcher who was just pummeled for seven earned runs in his last start in only two innings in Dustin May.

New York has scored four or more runs in seven of their last matchups against right-handed starters!

Boston Red Sox over 4.5 runs (+100) at Miami Marlins (Ryan Gusto)

Boston's offense continues to hit righties hard, posting a 128 wRC+ over the last two weeks against them, which is third behind the Mets and Mariners. I like the matchup here against Ryan Gusto and his 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

The trends back this play, too, as the Red Sox have scored five or more runs in six of their last eight games.

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Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Pitcher Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:30 AM ET

Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Sonny is a guy who relies a lot on called strikes, so I tend to tread lightly. But this matchup is very favorable as the Miami lineup has a lot more strikeouts in it since the deadline. He's been an innings machine, but his innings prop is simply too juiced. If he goes seven innings, I think he can get us six strikeouts.

Roki Sasaki OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-127)

Roki has been a tough guy to figure out this year, but he's been mostly good lately, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts while hitting the over on this number in seven of his last eight.

Atlanta can be dangerous, but their recent K% vs. RHP (25.1%) is the sixth highest in baseball, and they have the worst wRC+ of just 55.

Connor Prielipp OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Prielipp is a boom/bust type of play here as it's always tough for pitchers out in Sacramento in that ballpark. But his strikeouts have been ticking up lately, as he's whiffed six or more hitters in three straight games. The Athletics have been striking out a lot lately, yielding 11 to Taj Bradley and seven to Zebby Matthews already in this series.

Sean Burke OVER 17.5 OUTS (-120)

Our guy Burke has seen his strikeouts dry up a bit lately, but he's still been a strong innings eater for the White Sox. He's secured 18 outs or more in seven of his last nine starts and is facing a Texas lineup with the fourth-worst wRC+ (77) against RHP over the last two weeks.

Bryan Woo OVER 17.5 OUTS (-113)

We all know to avoid "Road-Woo" as he's been quite bad away from T-Mobile Park. However, when pitching at home, Woo has recorded 18 outs in ten straight starts. Both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby have pitched well in this series against the Phillies already, and I like Woo's chances of getting through six frames today as well.

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