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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/21/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Major League Baseball is ready to start the weekend off right with 15 games on the scoreboard and all 30 teams scheduled to be in action. The slate seems to be tilted a little bit towards the pitchers with some excellent aces in the mix, but even with strong starting pitching in play, a few strong spots for home run props still stand out. Based on the splits, matchup, and current form, a few hitters stand out as options who can offer big returns at fairly long odds this Friday.
Don’t forget that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about four of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 21, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/21/2026)
Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380, ProphetX)
Vargas and the White Sox are still atop the American League Central as they host the Mets this weekend, starting with Friday night's game against veteran lefty Sean Manaea. While the 34-year-old veteran has been solid lately, working 6+ innings in five straight starts, he has given up enough home runs to make Vargas an interesting option, especially since he has feasted on lefties this year.
Manaea has allowed 10 homers in his last eight games with a 46.6% hard-hit rate and 13.0% barrel rate against him. He has held lefties to a .236 average and .304 wOBA, but righties have a .358 wOBA against him with 12 of the 16 homers he has allowed this year.
Vargas has hit a career-high 28 homers this season, including four in his last nine games. He didn't homer in his four games this week, but he went yard in Detroit last Sunday.
Miguel Vargas - Chicago White Sox (28) pic.twitter.com/cNeFe6k4Ix
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 16, 2026
Vargas has a .396 wOBA and 14.9% barrel rate against lefties this season, with a 56.1% hard-hit rate on that side of the splits, compared to just a 41.9% hard-hit rate against righties. He has a .293 ISO and .938 OPS on that side of his splits, which sets him up for success against Manaea on Friday night at Rate Field.
Nathaniel Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+430, FanDuel)
The Guardians don't offer a lot of power options, but they're in a smash spot this weekend as they visit the rarefied air of Coors Field. On Friday night, they have a juicy matchup against Tanner Gordon in the series opener.
One source of some sneaky power in Cleveland's lineup is recent addition Nathaniel Lowe, who has two homers in 12 games with the Guardians, bringing his total for the season to 14, which is more than any other Guardian except for Jo Adell, who also just joined the roster at the trade deadline.
Lowe homered last Friday against the Padres, and he's hitting .244 with a .305 wOBA in his 12 games since the trade. He's hitting in the heart of Cleveland's batting order and providing the kind of pop that the team was looking for at the trade deadline.
Nathaniel Lowe is on pace for 20 home runs this season.
Season Stats:
14 HR
45 RBI
.269 AVG | .338 OBP | .829 OPSPace: 20 HR / 64 RBI#GuardsBall pic.twitter.com/A3o6VcO7Mx
— PaceBall (@paceball__) August 15, 2026
Lowe has played 13 career games at Coors Field and has three homers in Denver, including one last month when he visited as a member of the Reds.
He'll be in a great spot to produce another homer against Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 15 homers in his 17 games this season. The big righty has a 7.82 home ERA and has given up 13 homers in 38 innings at Coors Field.
Lefties like Lowe have hit 11 of the 15 homers against him this season with a .315 batting average, .402 wOBA, and a 11.0% barrel rate. In Coors, lefties' barrel rate jumps to 14.1% against him. Giving up so much hard contact in the elevation of Coors Field is a recipe for disaster for Gordon, but it sets up the Guardians to be strong home run prop plays this Friday night.
Lowe brings great value at over +400, and if he's in the heart of the order once again, he'll be poised to deliver some Coors Field thunder this Friday.
