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Jeremy's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 18 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 18 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. In this piece, we discuss surprising pitchers who are going above and beyond expectations, providing your team with unlikely ace production that not many were expecting. Some performances are more sustainable than others, so we'll dive into each pitcher to see how likely it is for them to maintain their recent form.
Starting pitching is by far the most volatile and risky position in fantasy, as every year plenty of top arms are sidelined with injuries. Luckily, there are also plenty of waiver wire gems and post-draft breakouts that allow fantasy managers to fill the gaps and hopefully bring home a championship trophy.
This week, we're focusing on Logan Henderson, Sean Burke, and Walbert Urena. Two of these pitchers have seen spikes in velocity recently, while the other continues to be as steady as they come at the major league level. Without further ado, let's get into whether these pitchers can keep up their recent form. For reference, all roster percentages listed are taken from Yahoo leagues.
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Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
65% Rostered
Logan Henderson looked great on Tuesday night, as he tossed 5 ⅔ shutout innings against the Giants. He allowed two hits and two walks while striking out seven batters. His fastball was especially effective, as it induced 11 of his 15 total whiffs on the night.
While this was a great start in its own right, it was also a continuation of a dominant stretch in the majors for the 24-year-old. He’s yet to allow more than three runs in an outing out of nine starts this season, and in eight of those starts he allowed two runs or less. The strikeouts have also noticeably picked up in his last two appearances, as he’s struck out 16 batters over 10 ⅔ innings in that span.
This season, Henderson has posted a 2.66 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP with 54 strikeouts and nine walks in 44 innings pitched. Both his strikeout rate and walk rate rank within the top five percent of the league, which allows him to limit the damage despite having a 2nd percentile groundball rate of 29.1%.
The one and only downside of the youngster’s performance so far has been volume, as he’s yet to pitch a full six innings in any start. However, that’s not due to a lack of efficiency, but because the Brewers have routinely pulled him from the game in the 70-85 pitch range. It was actually encouraging to see him throw 93 pitches Tuesday night, as that represented his high for the season.
It’s time to start fully believing in the righty, who also had five great starts at the major league level in 2025. His fastball and changeup combo is so good and so reliable, with batting averages below .200 on each individual pitch. He’s not getting lucky, either, as his xERA and xBA look just as enticing.
Verdict: Milwaukee’s attempts to preserve his arm prevent him from having a true ace ceiling for fantasy, but he’s clearly established himself as a must-start pitcher who’s yet to falter in 13 career starts in the big leagues. He's finally settled into a rotation spot for the Brewers, and they may need to rely on him even more if they continue to be cautious with Misiorowski's innings down the stretch.
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox
79% Rostered
We last mentioned Sean Burke in the Unlikely Aces column a few weeks ago, and it’s worth checking back in. At the time, his recent breakout didn’t have the largest sample, so it still wasn’t as clear how sustainable it was. However, now in week 18, Burke is still pitching like an ace with no signs of slowing down.
Most recently, the righty allowed two earned runs over six innings with 10 strikeouts against the Astros, which was his second double-digit strikeout performance in his last four starts. Over his past seven outings, Burke has struck out at least eight hitters in five of them. Even when he doesn’t get the strikeouts, such as on July 19th against the Blue Jays, he still tossed 6 ⅔ shutout innings with ease.
Last night, Sean Burke recorded double-digit strikeouts for the second time this season, third time in his career and first since 7/4/26 at Cleveland (career-high 11). pic.twitter.com/A8ylNJXzTW
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 26, 2026
The breakout really started on June 18th, when he started to throw his four-seam fastball over 96 mph on average, up from around 94 mph in most of the season prior. While it was unclear if he’d be able to maintain that new velocity for the remainder of the year, it was promising to see him so dominant in his last outing, even when his fastball was back down to 95.1 mph on average.
The 26-year-old now has a 3.19 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 130 strikeouts in 118 ⅓ innings, and those numbers are only getting better each time he takes the mound. We’re now up to a seven-game sample of ace performance for the youngster, as it’s becoming increasingly likely that this is just who he is moving forward.
Verdict: I’m still hesitant to declare him a true ace for the rest of 2026, but he might be close. He’s been the fourth best pitcher in fantasy over the past 30 days, after all, so there’s still room for regression while still being a standout fantasy option. I’m considering him a must-start top-30 pitcher moving forward, but he certainly has the upside to outperform that if he keeps this up.
Walbert Urena, Los Angeles Angels
38% Rostered
Walbert Urena has been very solid as of late, most recently holding the Astros to one run over six innings on Monday night. He allowed only two hits and two walks while striking out five. It was his second straight start and his fourth consecutive outing allowing one run or less.
While the actual performance has been good, it’s the change of velocity that has been even more notable. His fastball averaged 100.7 mph in the first inning of Monday’s start, and finished at 99.3 mph for the outing as a whole. That’s a big increase from his season average of 97.6 mph, and similar velocity gains were seen with his changeup, sinker, and sweeper, too.
That’s a big improvement for someone who has already been performing quite well, as the 22-year-old has posted a 91st percentile xBA of .199. The youngster finds success by keeping the ball on the ground with a 54.3% groundball rate while also limiting hard contact to the tune of a 32.8% hard-hit rate. That has allowed him to excel despite a 21.9% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate that both aren’t optimal.
Give it up for the rookie 👏
Walbert Ureña is the first Angels rookie to record six wins as a starter since Reid Detmers (7 wins) in 2022.
He has held opponents to two-or-fewer earned runs in 12 of 16 starts this season! pic.twitter.com/RxcxkTfjqH
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 22, 2026
Verdict: The rookie has a 2.70 ERA through 93 ⅓ innings pitched this season, which is already very impressive. Taking the recent velocity gains into account, we could be looking at a massive breakout on the horizon. He’ll have to cut the walk rate down to truly get the chance to ascend to the next level, but at just 38% rostered, he represents one of the best waiver wire targets available right now.
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