MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 7/29/26)

July 29, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 7/29/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

Not all Wednesday baseball slates are created equal. For some reason, the K prop gods (at whose altar I worship regularly) have blessed us with yet another smash slate, and I can't resist the temptation to go big with my favorite type of MLB prop bets. I have some game bets here, too, don't worry. But if you love strikeout props, you're in for a real treat!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-130)

The value is still here, even at -130. This should be a fantastic pitchers' duel with Tarik Skubal and Trevor Rogers facing off in a battle of the red-hot lefties (spoiler alert, we are hitting both their K props, too).

Trevor Rogers tonight:

7 IP | 6 H | 2 ER | 0 BB | 6 K

He's now allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 starts going back to the start of June! pic.twitter.com/CtMkYNcE3J

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 25, 2026

Rogers is 16-3 this year on NRFIs, and has worked ten straight clean first innings. Skubal is 11-4 on NRFIs, and comes into this one having worked four straight scoreless first frames.

The pitchers both have big advantages here, and I expect this one to be a low-scoring affair where both lefties dominate. Feel free to hit the full game total under, too.

MLB Team Totals

San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs (+111) vs. Colorado Rockies (Gabriel Hughes)

The Padres offense is red hot after being relatively disappointing for the first half of the season. The Friars have scored five or more runs in seven of their last nine games, averaging nearly seven runs per game during that stretch.

Their opponent today is Colorado and a rookie pitcher, Hughes, who I think has some regression coming his way. Hughes has a 2.79 ERA, but also has a 95.1% Z-Contact% and has been getting lucky with home run prevention (0% HR/FB). Some of those fly balls are going to be home runs sooner than later, and San Diego has the type of lineup that can punish a rookie righty if he's going to give up that much contact.

MLB First 5 Innings Bets

Kansas City Royals (+0.5) at Minnesota Twins F5 (+120)

It might seem crazy to want to back Randy Dobnak over Joe Ryan, but that's what we are doing! Joe Ryan got blasted in his last start and has been trending down for several starts. Meanwhile, Dobnak has been relatively effective, despite not being a strikeout pitcher.

Randy Dobnak with a strong outing against Detroit!

5.0 IP | 4 H | 0 R | 1 BB | 3 K

He’s got a 1.42 ERA in his first 4 games of the season 👑 pic.twitter.com/jwe2PSP9IS

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 24, 2026

KC has hit this bet in both of Dobnak's last two starts, and remember a tie after five innings is a win on this bet! I'll take these odds all day for a tie, and Kansas City has the kind of power-hitting lefties who could give them a lead against Ryan (he really struggles against LHH).

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Jesus Luzardo OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Luzardo has been rolling right along lately with 8+ strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. Do I care that Wheeler and Nola both failed me in this series so far? No! Luzardo has 9 and 10 strikeouts against his former team already this year in two meetings, and I'm right back on him here at even money.

AJ Smith-Shawver OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-108) 

It's his 2026 debut after missing most of last year and the first half of this season with arm surgery. Smith-Shawver has always had nasty stuff, but he's battled some control issues during his career. He had two very good starts in the minors leading up to today's call-up, and the Mets are a lineup we can attack as they are without Juan Soto and sporting a 27.7% K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks (third-worst in MLB).

Tarik Skubal OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+106)

I love attacking Baltimore with lefties (27% K% vs. LHP L14), and Skubal also is death to righties with his changeup. He's coming off a 12k masterpiece against KC and reminding us just how dominant he can be. Going over a number this big can be daunting, but Skubal has been so good lately with 9+ strikeouts in five of his last six starts.

Trevor Rogers OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Rogers has been awesome lately, and Detroit is a good target here as they have been awful against lefties lately (27.3K% and only a 32 wRC+). Rogers has five or more strikeouts in four of his last six starts, and I think the fact that he pitches deep into games helps him out here a lot, since he doesn't have dominant stuff.

Shane Drohan OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+147)

You should know by now that I love this young lefty and his upside! He has been good for six or more strikeouts now in three straight and four of his last five. He had five against the Giants earlier this year in just four innings, before he was fully stretched out. The Giants have a league-worst 30% K% vs. LHP over the last two weeks, so we are firing up Drohan with total confidence at some incredible odds!

Christian Scott OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)

I was all over Scott yesterday before he got rained out, and I love him again today in the second game of the Mets-Braves doubleheader. He has a 28% K% on the season and had seven strikeouts against the Braves in his first matchup with them. We also get the potential for a weaker lineup in the second game of the double-dip!

Cam Schlittler OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+117)

Don't tell me that MLB players don't get locked into "the zone" because I don't believe you. The Yankees' young right-hander was absolutely locked in against the Phillies in his last start, striking out 12 as he continues to go toe to toe with Dylan Cease for the AL Cy Young.

Cam Schlittler Just Silenced One of Baseball’s Most Dangerous Lineups

7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K

His full performance video: pic.twitter.com/NXCvZwTTrN

— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) July 25, 2026

Cam is tougher on lefties than righties, and this White Sox lineup is loaded with high-K hitters from the left side (Murakami, Benintendi, and Montgomery are all potential multiple K victims).

Hayden Wesneski OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Our other debut for 2026 comes from Wesneski as he walks right into an elite matchup against the Angels. Wesneski had a 30% K% at Triple-A and also a career-high 10 strikeouts against this Angels team last year before he got hurt. I love his chances of starting off his 2026 season with a good outing against this right-handed-heavy Halos' lineup.

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