RADIO
Patrick Gates shares his betting card for the 2026 PGA Championship and breaks down each of his selections for this week's event.
All other PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
The PGA TOUR travels to Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, this weekend for the PGA Championship. The Major Championship will feature a field of 154 players, including 99 of the top 100 golfers in the world.
In an article released on Monday, I broke down everything you need to know about the PGA Championship, from course details to key stats and historical trends. If you have not checked that out yet, I highly recommend giving it a read. As always, if you have questions about any players or the event itself, feel free to reach out to me on social media or in Discord.
With that said, let’s dive into the second Major of the season as I break down my betting card for the 2026 PGA Championship!
Outrights
Tommy Fleetwood (+2700) - DraftKings
Tommy Fleetwood finally broke through for his first PGA TOUR victory last season, winning the TOUR Championship in the final event of the year. He has carried that momentum into 2026, recording five top-10 finishes in his first nine starts this season.
While Fleetwood is still searching for his second PGA TOUR win, he has consistently put himself in contention. He enters this week in strong form after finishing T23 at the Cadillac Championship and T5 at the Truist Championship. Interestingly, before his breakthrough victory at East Lake last season, Fleetwood posted finishes of T16, T3, and T4 in his three starts leading into that event, a similar trend to what we are seeing now.
Fleetwood has yet to win a major championship, but he has proven he can contend on golf’s biggest stages with top-five finishes in all four majors during his career. In 11 previous appearances at the PGA Championship, he has recorded three top-20 finishes, including a strong performance at Oak Hill Country Club in 2023, another Donald Ross design and a solid comparable course for this week’s venue.
He is also one of the few players in the field with competitive experience at this week’s course, having finished T8 at the 2018 BMW Championship here. Fleetwood has also excelled at several comparable venues, including East Lake Golf Club, where he earned his first PGA TOUR win, and Philadelphia Cricket Club, where he finished T4 at last year’s Truist Championship.
Statistically, Fleetwood’s game sets up extremely well for this course. His putting was a concern early in the season, but he has now gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive starts. His iron play has also started trending back in the right direction, highlighted by ranking sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach at the Truist Championship last week.
This venue places a premium on accuracy off the tee due to the narrow fairways and penal rough. Unlike some recent major championship venues, overwhelming distance is not necessarily required here, which should benefit Fleetwood’s controlled driving style. He remains one of the more accurate drivers on TOUR, an important edge this week.
Fleetwood also ranks highly in scrambling and sand save percentage, two key areas that should help him navigate difficult conditions if his ball striking is not at its absolute best. With strong current form, experience on comparable Donald Ross layouts, and a skill set that matches the course demands, Fleetwood looks poised to contend once again in a major championship.
Collin Morikawa (+4000) - FanDuel
Collin Morikawa is one of the more intriguing outright bets on the board this week. There is certainly risk involved, but at 40-1, the upside is too difficult for me to ignore.
Morikawa started the season poorly, missing the cut at the Sony Open before finishing T54 at the WM Phoenix Open. Since then, however, he has looked much more like the elite player we are used to seeing, highlighted by a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am along with four additional top-10 finishes.
The concern this week is clearly his health. Morikawa withdrew after the opening hole at THE PLAYERS due to a back injury and has only made one start since then, finishing T62 at the Cadillac Championship. Last week, he also withdrew from the Truist Championship before the tournament began, with all signs pointing toward his back still being the issue.
That uncertainty is exactly why we are getting this number on a player of Morikawa’s caliber. When healthy, he remains one of the best iron players and overall ball strikers in the world. He is already a multiple major champion and has shown the ability to win against elite fields on difficult golf courses.
This week’s venue, Aronimink Golf Club, may also suit his game extremely well. It is one of the shorter PGA Championship venues we have seen in recent years, and the last PGA Championship played on a course under 7,400 yards was at TPC Harding Park in 2020, where Morikawa captured his first PGA Championship title.
Even in his disappointing finish at the Cadillac Championship, the issue was not necessarily his iron play. His approach game remained solid, while the biggest problem was his putting, something that has historically been the weaker part of his profile. His distance was slightly down, likely tied to the back injury, but he still looked capable of competing physically.
Morikawa has never played Aronimink Golf Club professionally, but he has consistently performed well on comparable Donald Ross designs. At East Lake Golf Club, he has recorded finishes of 1st, T2, and T6 in his last three appearances.
He also finished T26 at Oak Hill Country Club during the 2023 PGA Championship, another Donald Ross layout that serves as a strong comp course this week. Continuing that trend, Morikawa has excelled at Detroit Golf Club, posting finishes of T8 and T2 in his last two appearances there.
Another solid comparable venue is the Philadelphia Cricket Club, which hosted last year’s Truist Championship, where Morikawa finished T17.
From a statistical standpoint, Morikawa grades out extremely well in nearly every category outside of putting. However, there are encouraging signs there too. At the Masters, his last event played on Bentgrass greens, he ranked first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, proving he is capable of spiking with the flat stick on this surface.
There is undeniably a lot of uncertainty surrounding Morikawa this week because of the back injury. That risk is built directly into the number. But when you combine his upside, major championship pedigree, history on Donald Ross layouts, and the fact that he has now had additional time to recover, there is enough value here for me to take the chance at 40-1.
