10 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 18, 2026

Andy Smith's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

The term breakout is a staple in the fantasy sports world. A breakout is typically a player who has the skill set to enjoy a career season and will greatly outperform their current draft position.

In this piece, I will give you my 10 breakout hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. While there were several names who just missed the cut, these 10 not only offer the upside to outperform their current draft position but also become mainstays in your lineup all summer long. All ADP referenced in this piece is taken from NFBC drafts from February 1 to February 17.

Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X and feel free to hit me up with any questions @A_Smith_FS. What 10 hitters should you circle on your draft board before your draft? Let's get started!

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Ben Rice, C/1B, New York Yankees

ADP - 50.3

The only player on this list going within the top 130 picks in NFBC ADP is Ben Rice. Rice began to scratch the surface of his highest potential last season, but there is another level the Dartmouth product can reach. Last summer, Rice posted a .255/.337/.499 slash line with an .836 OPS, 28 doubles, 26 long balls, and three stolen bases.

Through 138 games, Rice totaled 74 runs with 65 RBI while posting a solid 100:50 K:BB.

However, Rice has some of the most elite underlying metrics in the entire sport and could enter "star" status in 2026. Rice placed in the 92nd percentile or better in early all-hitter metrics (xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate), suggesting he should see significant positive regression in 2026.

His xSLG (.557) was 38 points higher than his actual slugging percentage, while his xBA (.283) was 28 points higher than his base batting average.

The 26-year-old began to see some of this elite production in the second half as he posted a .281/.352/.542 line 12 home runs compared to the .235/.326/.466 line he led in the first half of the campaign.

Even though the Yankees re-signed Paul Goldschmidt, reports suggest Rice will be the primary first baseman going forward and will not sit against left-handed pitchers. The only downside to Rice is his price. Managers are practically "paying" for the breakout, given his nearly top-50 ADP. However, if he performs as he did in the second half (as his metrics suggest), Rice could be a top-20 hitter in the sport and worthy of the price tag.

Ben Rice to See Bulk of Playing Time at First Base? https://t.co/QNwIjSJUB7

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 11, 2026

Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP - 200.2

Addison Barger put together a productive showing in his first full MLB season in 2025. After appearing in only 69 games in 2024, Barger would log 135 games in 2025 to the tune of a .243/.301/.454 line. The 26-year-old went deep 21 times and swiped four bags. However, there is much to like about his profile, and a 30-HR season is in the cards.

According to Statcast, Barger was one of the best pure power hitters in the game. He placed in the 93rd percentile in bat speed, 91st in hard-hit rate, and 86th in average exit velocity. His 116.5 mph max exit velocity is in the top three percent of the entire sport.

On the surface, his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA were all higher than his base statistics, suggesting he should see some nice positive regression, given how hard he hits the ball. However, Barger looks even more intriguing for 2026 when looking deeper into his batted-ball profile.

In 2025, Barger generated a 21.2% Pull AIR rate, which was well above the average. Additionally, this was a nice jump from the 18.8% Pull AIR rate generated in his debut season. With another year of experience under his belt, and given how hard he hits the ball, another increase in his pull AIR rate can set him up for a 30+ HR season.

While playing time was a concern at the start of the offseason, right-fielder Anthony Santander (shoulder) is set to open the season on the 60-day IL, leaving Barger as the clear option in right field on Opening Day. Target Barger with confidence at his current price.

The #BlueJays exploded for five runs before even recording an out.

Addison Barger just launched a three-run shot off the batter's eye, a no-doubter. pic.twitter.com/iHBOSMbn41

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) July 2, 2025

Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals

ADP -  194.5

The other backstop I am targeting in drafts is Kansas City's Carter Jensen. Jensen received a brief taste of the majors last season and looked quite comfortable. Across 20 games, MLB.com's No. 39-ranked prospect posted an elite .300/.391/.550 slash line with three round-trippers. While the sample size was small, Jensen hit the ball exceptionally well.

He generated an eye-catching .447 xwOBA with a 20.8% barrel rate and a 41.7% LA sweet-spot rate. Managers should not expect Jensen to hold these numbers over a full 162-game season, but seeing him showcase this raw talent is an excellent sign that he could break out over a full season.

Earlier in 2025, Jensen looked just as comfortable in the upper levels of the Kansas City pipeline, posting a .290/.377/.501 line with 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 111 games (shared between Double-A and Triple-A).

Even though he will share playing time behind the dish with the legendary Salvador Perez, Jensen should be penciled into an everyday role to begin the season. The Royals do not have much depth on their roster, which will allow Jensen and Perez to share the DH spot when the other is behind the plate.

Given his stellar play in the upper minors and near-flawless debut, Jensen is a priority No. 2 (in two-catcher leagues) and has the upside to become a top-10 option at the position fairly early in the season. He has the upside to chip in double-digit steals, add 20+ home runs, while hitting for a high average.

Luke Keaschall, 2B, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 134.5

Luke Keaschall had injuries limit him in his debut season, but showed enough upside in his limited stint to warrant a selection in the top 150 in current drafts. Through his first 49 MLB games, Keaschall posted a .302/.382/.445 slash line with 14 doubles, four home runs, and 14 stolen bases.

Through his first seven MLB games, the young infielder immediately made an impact, swiping five bags, but suffered a fractured forearm, which shut him down for three months. The former second-round pick then returned in August and would hold a .294/.359/.436 line with four home runs and nine stolen bases over his last 42 games before suffering a thumb injury late in the campaign.

For those in points leagues, the Arizona State product is also a worthwhile selection, as evidenced by his 14.0% K% and 9.2% BB%.

While Keaschall enters the 2026 season with some injury concerns, managers should be more than willing to select him at this price. The 23-year-old posted an above-average .263 xBA with a strong 38.3% LA sweet-spot rate, suggesting he makes quality contact with the ball and helps offset his lower raw hard-hit metrics.

Additionally, his 85th percentile sprint speed should provide him 35+ SB upside over a full 162-game slate. Last summer, he was on track to swipe 46 bags. While his power upside will be limited, Keachall can provide a high batting average and solid stolen base totals while playing at one of the weakest positions in fantasy. Do not be surprised when Keaschall is a borderline top-3 2B in drafts heading into 2027.

Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

ADP - 201.3

Another prospect who looked quite comfortable in his "cup of coffee" in the big leagues was Sal Stewart. However, unlike Jensen, Stewart is very affordable in drafts despite having a clear path to playing time.

Through an 18-game taste of the majors, Stewart held a .255/.293/.545 line with five home runs and a 15:3 K:BB. He generated a .398 xwOBA with an elite 17.5% barrel rate. Earlier in the season, Stewart progressed through the upper levels of the minor leagues at an impressive rate and carried that momentum right into the majors.

He opened 2025 with Double-A, where he held a .306 AVG with an .850 OPS across 80 games. Then, in his first 33 games with Triple-A, Stewart posted an even higher .315 AVG with a 1.023 OPS. During this stint, the former first-round pick launched 10 home runs. Across 118 MiLB games, Stewart showed his five-category skill set, swiping 17 bags while hitting 20 long balls with a .309 AVG.

The only concern for drafters is Stewart's perceived playing time, as his ADP remains very affordable. However, earlier this week, Reds manager Terry Francona noted that Stewart will spend most of camp at first and second base, with time at third. With Spencer Steer expected to shift to left field, Stewart enters spring training as the clear favorite for an everyday role at first base, with the upside to move around the infield.

While a slow start could limit his playing time, he has the raw talent to make an immediate impact and carry must-start upside as a corner infielder. Finding a 20/20 first baseman is nearly impossible in today's game, but Stewart has that ceiling.

JJ Wetherholt, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP - 244.5

Even though top prospect JJ Wetherholt has yet to step on the major league diamond, he is a top breakout candidate for the 2026 season. The former seventh-overall pick was knocking on the MLB door throughout the 2025 season but was unable to earn a call.

The West Virginia product began the season with his first taste of Double-A and needed only 62 games to prove he was ready to join the top ranks. With Triple-A Memphis, Wetherholt did more than keep his head above the water as he posted a .314/.416/.562 slash line with 14 doubles, 10 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 33:28 K:BB.

At Triple-A, Wetherholt raised his Pull% by nearly four points (40.5% - 44.8%) and lowered his infield fly-ball rate (IFFB%) from 19.0% to 10.4%, despite facing the toughest pitching in the minor leagues. He generated a slightly higher 156 wRC+, compared to the 152 wRC+ he held with Double-A Springfield.

Despite having a 20/20 upside profile, managers are still waiting until the final rounds to select Wetherholt. With the Cardinals moving on from Nolan Arenado (traded to Arizona) and Brendan Donovan (traded to Seattle), the team's top prospect faces minimal competition for an everyday role to open the season.

MLB.com's No. 5-ranked prospect has NL Rookie of the Year in his range outcomes and should provide managers with a high batting average and solid production in all five statistical categories. The young infielder should also gain 2B eligibility early in the campaign as his clearest path to at-bats lies at the keystone.

Daylen Lile, OF, Washington Nationals

ADP - 200.6

Daylen Lile was a league-winner over the final stretch of the second half and is primed to carry this momentum into 2026. Over his first 66 MLB games, Lile held a modest .262/.309/.389 line with three home runs and seven stolen bases. However, once September arrived, the 23-year-old found his stride.

Over the final month of the season (25 games), Lile posted a dominant .391/.440/.772 line with six home runs and one stolen base. He has added three doubles with an eye-catching seven triples. While his stolen base production declined, he found his footing as a hitter, which is a great sign for his 2026 outlook.

Overall, he finished his first 91 games in Washington with a .348 xwOBA, an elite 100th percentile .302 xBA, and a 44.2% LA sweet-spot rate. Lile found much of his success in how he hit the ball. While he does not make loud contact (20th percentile barrel rate), he generated a strong 20.1% pull AIR rate, which plays quite well alongside his elite LA sweet-spot rate.

He does not hit the ball hard, but he hits it to the pull side, which will keep his batting average high and, more importantly, open the door for more home runs.

Lile also placed the 92nd percentile in sprint speed, suggesting he should be in a prime position to swipe 20 bases over a full season. The 23-year-old is a legit 20/20 candidate who can hit around .300.

TRIPLES FROM A NATS ROOKIE:
3. Turner (8)
2. Harper (9)

1. LILE (TEN) pic.twitter.com/2vtJvoTM42

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 16, 2025

Jac Caglianone, OF, Kansas City Royals

ADP - 207.5

Jac Caglianone is the prime example of a post-hype breakout. Caglianone was a top stash candidate ahead of his eventual MLB debut last summer when he was hitting a home run at Triple-A nearly every other night. Through 28 games at Triple-A, the former sixth overall pick launched 11 home runs while holding a .357/.426/.705 line, which prompted his early promotion.

However, it appears the former Florida standout was given the call a bit too early as he struggled during his first stint. Through 62 games in Kansas City, Caglianone held a .157/.237/295 line with six doubles and seven home runs. This shows that the jump from Triple-A to the majors is quite steep, and even a player of his pedigree can experience some growing pains.

With a full offseason under his belt and a surprisingly affordable ADP, Caglianone is primed to bounce back in Year 2. In his limited MLB stint, Caglianone posted an elite 77.4 mph bat speed and a 12.0% barrel rate, suggesting his raw power profile began to show, despite his rough stat line. His 114.1 max mph exit velocity placed him within the top 10% of all MLB hitters as well.

Additionally, his impressive .375 xwOBACON suggests that when he did make contact, he was an elite hitter. His .321 xwOBA was also much higher than his base .239 wOBA.

While his strikeout rate could lead to some bad stretches of play, Caglianone is one of the few hitters past pick 200 who has legitimate 30-HR upside. Trust his product pedigree and reap the rewards when you select him as your No. 4/No. 5 outfitter.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox

ADP - 221.5

Going just a round past Caglianone is another outfielder primed to turn in a career season. Abreu was a productive outfielder last season, posting a .247/.317/.469 line with 22 home runs and six stolen bases. However, the 26-year-old was kept in a platoon, which increased his base statistics.

Last season, Abreu made just eight total starts against southpaws. When facing them, he posted a low .676 OPS, which encouraged Boston to keep him in a limited role. However, the Red Sox have had a change of heart this winter and plan to keep Abreu in the lineup against left-handed starters, opening the door for him to appear in the lineup on a daily basis.

When on the field, Abreu is very productive and could greatly outperform this cost, even if he were to struggle against left-handed starters. He generated a .335 xwOBA with a 12.3% barrel rate and a 74.1 mph average bat speed, all of which were above the average marks.

Abreu has also raised his pull AIR rate in each of his three MLB seasons, and that could be the driving force for his breakout. In 2025, Abreu posted an elite 25.7% pull AIR rate, one of the highest in the sport.

Even if he struggles against left-handers, his elite glove will give him a long leash to work out his struggles. Once he finds his footing, a 30+ HR season with a >.260 AVG while adding high-end counting stats is possible. The best part is that managers are drafting him as if he will remain in a platoon role.

Wilyer Abreu Viewed as "Everyday" Player in Boston Lineuphttps://t.co/bYOffGwlBe

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 11, 2026

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP - 612.9

Rounding out this list will be a deep breakout for those in 15-team leagues. Even though Waldschmidt has yet to even reach Triple-A, he is making a strong case to begin the 2026 season in the major leagues. Last season, the Kentucky product spent time with High-A and Double-A and posted a cumulative .289/.419/.473 slash line with 18 home runs and 29 stolen bases.

At Double-A, he improved his batted-ball metrics, lowering his ground-ball rate to 34.5% (from 39.5% at High-A) and raising his line-drive rate to 31.3% from the much lower 18.9% rate he posted at High-A.

However, what makes Waldschmidt a prime late-round breakout pick is that he could earn a lead role right out of spring training. With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (knee) out for the start of the season and Corbin Carroll (hand) in danger of missing Opening Day, Waldschmidt faces minimal competition in left field.

If he enjoys a hot start, it will be hard for the Diamondbacks to option their top prospect to Triple-A even once Carroll and Gurriel return.

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