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Mike's Week 15 college football betting picks against the spread for Friday, December 5, and Saturday, December 6, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
We go from a week with 134 of the 136 FBS teams in action to just nine games total over two days. It takes some getting used to. Rivalry week gave us some weird tiebreakers in the ACC, some weird movement in the committee rankings, and a few blowouts that aren't usually blowouts.
We have four conference championships on Friday and the other five on Saturday. A few of them run concurrently so that we can be locked into all of them.
We'll do all the picks for the weekend here, then see how I did last week at the end of the article. It was a wild one!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 15
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Troy at (25) James Madison (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know why this line is rising. The Dukes will win, but they're not going to blow Troy out.
Pick: Troy +23.5
Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Jacksonville State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Didn't we just watch this movie like three weeks ago? What's changed? Kennesaw turned it over four times in that game, so I get where the line is coming from. It was a nine-point Gamecocks victory the first time around. It's going to be closer this time, but I still like the home team.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
(24) North Texas (-2.5) at (20) Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line tells us everything we need to know. The CFP committee is overvaluing wins over middling Power 4 teams for Tulane. There's a lot of juice on the North Texas side, suggesting that this line should, and could be, higher.
On the other hand, I've seen a lot of sharps on Tulane. The Wave haven't lost a home game this season.
Pick: North Texas -2.5
UNLV at Boise State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Maddux Madsen will be back for Boise, and UNLV will have Jai'Den Thomas back for this one. Thomas's absence isn't what lost the first game for UNLV. It was the porous defense. That hasn't changed.
Pick: Boise State -4.5
(11) BYU vs. (4) Texas Tech (-12.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to say that BYU can hang around this time, but this is still mostly a road game. The only difference is that BYU fans had equal chances at tickets. Maybe that will make all the difference.
Pick: BYU +12.5
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5) at Detroit
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm still kind of lost as to why the Broncos are favored. Miami won this game in Oxford with Dequan Finn, but the offense has actually been better without Finn.
Pick: Miami (OH) +2.5
(3) Georgia (-2.5) vs. (9) Alabama at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama has won 10 of the last 11 games against Georgia, including a victory in Athens already this year. I still don't trust this.
Pick: Alabama +2.5
(2) Indiana vs. (1) Ohio State (-4.5) at Indianapolis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the most meaningless 1 vs. 2 game ever in the history of sports. The winner gets a bye. The loser gets a bye...and an easier path through the playoff. Does anyone else think Ohio State wants to lose?
Pick: Indiana +4.5
Duke vs. (17) Virginia (-3.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Virginia blew the doors off of Duke in Durham 20 days ago. Absolutely nothing has changed.
Pick: Virginia -3.5
I'm putting in two max bets on nine games. I only have one minimum bet. My money will be lost on the twos or threes. I have three of each.
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't acknowledge the good or the bad? I think I had a decent week, even though I didn't believe in my team. So it goes.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Bowling Green (-14.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I made a lot of money on the backs of UMass this year.
UMass just capped off an 0-12 season.
The Minutemen finish winless for the first time since 2020 (0-4) and finish winless in a full season for the first time in program history.
In their 12 games this year, they were outscored 463-133 (-330 point differential).
Over the past 7… pic.twitter.com/JPbGydhBa7
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 26, 2025
Western Michigan (-7.5) at Eastern Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This wasn't a blowout like some of these games have been in recent years, but Western still maintained control of the game. Eastern scored two of its three touchdowns in the fourth quarter once the game was out of hand.
Navy at Memphis (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. The Memphis defense can't stop the run.
(6) Mississippi (-7.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There was no question about the game. The only question was whether Lane Kiffin would go off on a reporter. The answer was yes.
(12) Utah (-11.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Utah needed a big fourth quarter to even win this game...
Iowa (-6.5) at Nebraska: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Since Nebraska had to “evaluate where Iowa was” 11 years ago:
Iowa is 10-1 vs. Nebraska
Records
Iowa: 97-40
Nebraska: 56-74Winning Seasons
Iowa: 11 (4 of 10 wins or more)
Nebraska: 2Bowl Eligible
Iowa: 11
Nebraska: 4New Head Coaches
Iowa: 0
Nebraska: 3 https://t.co/9KL2XmrtqY— Jordan Loperena (@JordanLoperena) November 29, 2025
I admire that the guy bookmarked the Tweet just to flex a decade later. If you're not around the area, you have no idea how much these fans and teams dislike each other.
This was an absolute beatdown by Iowa. The (non-call?) of targeting on the fumbled punt changed the entire game. I thought it was targeting, but what do I know? It wouldn't have mattered. Iowa dominated the second half.
Ohio (-6.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one hurt. Ohio was up 28-13 heading into the fourth quarter and blew the cover.
Kent State at Northern Illinois (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kent kicked NIU out of the MAC and into the Mountain West with a home loss. How fitting! If this Kent staff and players stay in place, Kent could win the MAC next year. I'm not joking.
Air Force (-1.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
What a pitiful performance by the Rams. Jim Mora Jr. can't get on that plane quick enough...
(4) Georgia (-13.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was Georgia Tech's Super Bowl, and they played like it. If this defense had shown up for the entire season, the Yellow Jackets would have made the CFP.
San Diego State (-1.5) at New Mexico: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I missed both of my max bets this week thanks to a massive choke job by the Aztecs. How many chances did they need to win this? It must have been one more, I guess...
Temple at North Texas (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins could dominate the Big 12 if they follow Eric Morris to Stillwater.
Boise State (-3.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was quite a performance by the Utah State defense, but it was all for naught.
(2) Indiana (-28.5) at Purdue: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Why do Indiana fans love Curt Cignetti so much? He didn't stop at all. Indiana has outscored their hated rival 122-3 over the past two seasons.
(3) Texas A&M (-2.5) at (17) Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I've thought for a while that a soft SEC schedule was propping up the Aggies. Turns out I was right. Texas won by double digits and broke the CFP.
Arizona (-1.5) at (25) Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It still wasn't close. Arizona ends the regular season on a five-game winning streak.
(1) Ohio State (-9.5) at (15) Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wish I hadn't chickened out. It was all over after this play. Karma's a bitch...
Did he just head butt the ref? pic.twitter.com/f8XEDpLeVD
— LandonTengwall (@LandonTengwall) November 29, 2025
Not only should he have been ejected from the game (he wasn't), but it should have been a suspension. These guys all tower over the officials anyway. I understand. Things get heated. I've wanted to headbutt a ref before. I didn't. Why? Consequences.
There were none here, and that's a dangerous thing. If players are allowed to use helmets as weapons against officials, it's all over. We'll have robot officials by the end of the decade.
(5) Texas Tech (-23.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wasn't kidding when I said that Texas Tech is the most complete team I've seen this year. The loss to Arizona State was on the road without Behren Morton. Context matters.
(12) Miami (FL) (-6.5) at (22) Pittsburgh: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know what else Miami has to do. Not only do they have the head-to-head win over Notre Dame, but Miami and the Irish played four common opponents this year. That's four common data points.
Miami won three of the four by more than the Irish did, and the Irish were trying to score style points in all of them. Miami didn't try for style points until the first rankings came out. If H2H no longer matters, why even schedule Notre Dame? There is zero upside.
Kentucky at Louisville (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kentucky got obliterated by a Louisville team on its fourth running back and was missing its best receiver. Mark Stoops was finally fired. It should have happened last year.
Clemson at South Carolina (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the worst Clemson team of the last decade, and this wasn't even a question. Is the ACC really not as bad as the national media claims it is? It's an absolute joke to have Duke in the ACC title game, but games like this really make you question some things.
Houston at Baylor (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Baylor has been worse at home than on the road. Sawyer Robertson's interception woes kept Baylor from a special season. Well, that and a horrendous defense.
Colorado at Kansas State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew this was high. I should have trusted my instincts. Did Kansas State break Avery Johnson? His last two games of the season were objectively awful.
Iowa State (-13.5) at Oklahoma State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It has come to the point where we really must wonder if Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel were the reason for all of Rocco Becht's success. It was a rough season for him.
East Carolina (-6.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have trusted this more. I was surprised by the line, but I gave Vegas too much credit.
Toledo (-11.5) at Central Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A healthy Toledo is the best team in the MAC. I said what I said.
Ball State at Miami (OH) (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where did that Miami offense come from?
Central Florida at (11) BYU (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I feel bad for BYU. If you're 11-1 in a power conference and have played all of the top teams in the conference, with the only loss on the road to a top 5 team, you should be a playoff lock.
UTEP at Delaware (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Delaware scored over 60 points for the first time since 2000 to give the Blue Hens that elusive sixth win. Both Delaware and Missouri State are bowl-bound in their first FBS season. You love to see it! Somehow, UMass still went 0-12...
#BREAKING: Missouri State and Delaware will be eligible to compete in this year’s College Football Bowl Season, despite both programs being in their first year at the FBS level.
Per @LowboyAnalyst#CollegeFootball #CFB #MoState #BlueHens #CUSA #BowlSeason pic.twitter.com/xu5GHCob9N
— CUSA Centel (@TheCUSACentel) November 30, 2025
Florida International (-10.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was easy money. I should have hammered this! Kejon Owens is going to be a beast wherever he winds up next season.
Georgia Southern at Marshall (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I laid a small bet on the GSU money line. I should have gone heavier on it here.
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Jacksonville State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Gamecocks have a chance to win the Conference USA crown at home this week.
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Missouri State couldn't stop Trey Kukuk.
Georgia State at Old Dominion (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a good reason that I left this one alone. The fact that I was 2-9 picking Old Dominion this year only had a little bit to do with it.
Arkansas State at Appalachian State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This honestly might have been the best game of the weekend.
Boston College (-2.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm a big Fran Brown fan, but how can losing your quarterback derail your season this badly? The Orange haven't been competitive in any game since Steve Angeli went down.
Middle Tennessee State at New Mexico State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
New Mexico State controlled the game and still lost.
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It went to overtime, just like any good rivalry game should.
South Alabama at Texas State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Death, taxes, and the Bobcats at home. Has anyone else noticed how good a season Brad Jackson has had?
Texas State QB Brad Jackson just threw a TD pass while hurdling a defender 😳 pic.twitter.com/Gr6i2OE6QI
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) October 29, 2025
UAB at Tulsa (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How does Tulsa beat Army, then lose to UAB? It's a weird sport, I tell you...
(6) Oregon (-6.5) at Washington: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon is now in line to steal a first-round bye again this year if Texas Tech loses to BYU. That would give THREE Big Ten teams a first-round bye. Why? Because they all had only one or two tough games.
LSU at (8) Oklahoma (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If John Mateer's decision-making doesn't improve in the next three weeks, we're going to get smoked.
(14) Vanderbilt at (19) Tennessee (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Diego Pavia's last month should have won him the Heisman Trophy.
Good morning!
Of the 4 main Heisman QB candidates, Diego Pavia leads in yards by almost 500 despite only playing 5 full games against one of the hardest schedules of the candidates.
Almost like the best individual award should go to the best individual, but what do I know🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/fSFXIRhvrm
— CJ Olson (@CJOlsonFB) November 23, 2025
Missouri (-2.5) at Arkansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's remarkable that Ahmad Hardy is the best running back in football, and he plays in the SEC...yet very few people know about him.
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Paul Bunyan’s Axe is staying in Minnesota! 🪓〽️ pic.twitter.com/xq272IY8Sg
— University of Minnesota (@UMNews) November 30, 2025
There's something about winning the axe in a snowstorm that makes it that much better.
Penn State (-13.5) at Rutgers: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Penn State did everything it could to lose this game. Was the firing of James Franklin the worst in the history of college football? Penn State fired the coach early and has struck out somewhere around a dozen times when looking for someone to come to not-so-Happy Valley.
Wake Forest at Duke (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A 7-5 Duke team is in the ACC Championship game. Is hell frozen?
Cincinnati at TCU (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati fell apart down the stretch, but I still kept betting on them...
Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Liberty: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All that the Owls have to do to win the Conference USA title is beat Jacksonville State on the road...a place where they lost 20 days ago.
Troy at Southern Mississippi (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Goose Crowder's return propels Troy to the Fun Belt Championship.
Army at UTSA (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Army ends UTSA's home dominance under Jeff Traylor. It was a great run while it lasted.
James Madison (-21.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Dukes need Duke to get them to the promised land. Fitting...
Florida State at Florida (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida running back Jadan Baugh rushed for *266 YARDS* against Florida State.
That is the most rushing yards ever by a Florida player against FSU.
Those 266 yards are the 2nd-most in a single game in Florida history.
One of the top RBs in all of CFB to watch for next year. 🐊 pic.twitter.com/cNZFcLXvqZ
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 30, 2025
Not only did Florida keep their rival out of a bowl, but Jadan Baugh had a game for the ages. Backs just don't get 38 carries in a game anymore. Maybe they should!
Oregon State at Washington State (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The two teams in the Pac-2 can't even decide on a champion. They should play again this week...
Virginia Tech at (18) Virginia (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Virginia is one step away from the CFP.
Maryland at Michigan State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Malik Washington had an outstanding game to propel him into next year. Too bad it couldn't propel Maryland to a win.
Rice at South Florida (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If they were truly giving the Heisman Trophy to the best player, it would be Byrum Brown. He scored 42 total touchdowns this year, by far the most in FBS.
(10) Alabama (-5.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There were a couple of times that Alabama almost lost control of this game...and the committee still moved them UP in the rankings...
UCLA at (17) USC (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC tried as hard as they could to cover this in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, they came up short.
Charlotte at (24) Tulane (-29.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
My instincts were right, but not because Tulane pulled starters. It wasn't a great game from Jake Retzlaff.
Northwestern at Illinois (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Don't mind me...I'm just patting myself on the back for dodging that hook.
North Carolina at North Carolina State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's a good thing I watch the games. I knew this line was bogus, and so was the bait to get us to bet on the Heels.
(21) SMU (-13.5) at California: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this line was bogus, but I still didn't expect an outright win from Cal. Am I surprised? Not even a little bit. 2025 in the ACC is going to be the stuff of fairy tales told for centuries.
UNLV (-7.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Fremont Cannon will remain red for at least one more year.
(9) Notre Dame (-31.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still can't believe that the Irish blew this cover in the fourth quarter. Didn't they remember that they still need style points?
Fresno State (-3.5) at San Jose State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Walker Eget had an absolutely miserable end of the season.
Wyoming at Hawaii (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii is back to dominating at home again. I pity the fool who draws the Rainbow Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had my best week of the season in Rivalry Week, despite an awful Friday. I went 38-29 to put my season total at 383-369. I have a little bit of wiggle room heading into bowl season. How many points do I have to play with? Let's find out!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-3 (49-38) = 11
2. 16-11 (127-146) = -38
3. 15-9 (135-116) = 57
4. 3-4 (50-53) = -12
5. 0-2 (22-16) = 30
I gained another 15 points this week despite missing both max bets. That puts me 48 points in the black as we head into conference championship week.
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