MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (10/2/2025)

October 2, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (10/2/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Riley Greene, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Giancarlo Stanton, and two strikeout props.

We have three games this Thursday in MLB to close out our Wild Card round. What better day for a playoff home run article than "Elimination Day?" With the playoffs advancing, home runs are going to become rarer. I am going to give you my favorite home run from each playoff game today. I would advise scaling back on the betting size for home runs in the playoffs.

I will provide my three favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than three home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, October 2, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (10/2/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, October 2:

• Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+456 DraftKings)

Our first game of the day should be a fun one between Slade Cecconi and Jack Flaherty, with a trip to the division series on the line. This game will be low scoring, just like the first two, but there will be a few home runs hit here.

Cecconi has allowed a 1.64 HR/9, 39.0% FB, and a 36.9% Hard Hit this season. He has turned it up a bit more lately. Left-handed hitters have hit 13 home runs this season. They have a .431 SLG, .209 ISO, 14.9% Brl, and a 51.5% Hard Hit against him this season.

Riley Greene leads the Tigers this season with 36 home runs. He has hit 32 of those against right-handed pitching, where he is slashing .277/.327/.565 and a .892 OPS. Greene has a .462 SLG and two home runs over the last ten days.

Cecconi has allowed six home runs off his four-seam fastball to lefties this season. He has allowed three off his curveball. Greene has a .474 SLG, .230 ISO, and nine home runs against the four-seam and a .692 SLG, .333 ISO, and three home runs off his curveball.

This is an excellent spot for Greene to go yard.

Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+630 DraftKings)

Our second home run bet of the day will take place in the second game of the day, respectively, between the Padres and the Cubs. The winner will head to the divisional series. Yu Darvish will square off against Jameson Taillon in this one.

Darvish has been prone to the long ball and is someone we want to target in this spot. Darvish has allowed a 1.75 HR/9, 43.3% FB, and a 28.1% Hard Hit this season. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a 1.86 HR/9, 50.0% FB, and a 41.4% Hard Hit.

Lefties are the spot we want to attack with Darvish. He has allowed eight home runs against lefties this season and a .525 SLG, .263 ISO, 13.6% Brl, and a 37.3% Hard Hit. There are several lefties in this Cubs lineup that hit right-hand pitching well.

Crow-Armstrong has not been in the best of form, but he has some underlying metrics that I really like here. He has 31 home runs on the season. He has hit 24 of those against right-hand pitching. He has a .518 SLG and a .829 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.

Darvish has allowed home runs to five pitches to lefties. His four seamer, sweeper, cutter, curveball, and sinker. PCA crushes all of these pitches. He hits everything, as seen below.

PCA is leaving the yard today.

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+413 DraftKings)

The Yankees will host our third game of the day with game three in the Bronx at Yankee Stadium. Rookie Connelly Early will toe the rubber in Yankee Stadium, and this atmosphere may be a handful for him.

Early has allowed a 40.0% FB and a 35.6% Hard Hit this season. He has not allowed a home run yet this season, but some of those underlying numbers are screaming regression. Right-handed hitters have a 44.7% Hard Hit against him this season.

Stanton has been going nuts since his return from the IL. He has a .585 SLG and a .930 OPS this season and has hit 24 home runs in 253 at-bats. He has hit five of those home runs against left-hand pitching and has a .522 SLG and a .900 OPS.

Giancarlo Stanton in his age 35 season:

24 HR | .946 OPS | 158 wRC+ | .598 SLG

In just 76 games... he is INEVITABLE.#Yankees pic.twitter.com/GsMARD1DMu

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) September 27, 2025

Early throws three pitches to right-handed hitters: his changeup, curveball, and four-seamer. Stanton crushes all three pitches. He has a .545 SLG and a .409 ISO against the four-seamer, a .500 SLG, a .250 ISO against the changeup, and a .545 SLG and a .182 ISO against the curveball.

This spot is perfect for Stanton to hit a big home run.

Slade Cecconi, Connelly Early Strikeout Ladder

Our final bet of the card is not a home run bet, but it is another high-odds bet that we can make some money off of. Cecconi opened up at over 3.5 strikeouts, and I like his ladder up to seven strikeouts.

The Tigers have been the most strikeout-friendly team as of late in MLB. They have a 31.5% K against right-hand pitching over the last 14 days. Cecconi has a 26.8% K and a 12.7% SwStr during that same span.

He struck out eight Twins hitters two starts ago, so the upside is there for Cecconi to climb the ladder.

The rookie Connelly Early is our other ladder bet today. Early has a 36.7% K and a 16.1% SwStr since his call-up to MLB. His stuff is electric and has already had three outings with seven or more strikeouts.

I like laddering Early to seven strikeouts as well. I recommend parlaying each of these two plays together at each level of the ladder.

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