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Expert Friday Night Football betting picks and game predictions for the Chiefs versus Chargers. Get the best prop bets, and odds analysis for Week 1 (9/5/2025) FNF.
The NFL is finally back, set for another international game in an AFC West between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, live from São Paulo at 8 p.m. ET.
There are a few intriguing storylines to consider with this game. Can the Chiefs get back to making explosive plays downfield? How much will Rashawn Slater's absence impact the Chargers' offense? Is this finally the year when Patrick Mahomes and company are usurped from the division throne?
While we won't find out the answers to each of these questions in Week 1, it will be interesting to see our first look at each team. Read on to find out my best Friday Night Football bets between the Chiefs and Chargers.
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Week 1 Friday Night Football Betting Odds
Chiefs vs Chargers
Moneyline: Chiefs -170 / Chargers +142
Spread: Chiefs -3 (-115) / Chargers +3 (-105)
Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)
The Chargers are short favorites in a neutral game environment. The total of 46.5 points reflects a closely contested divisional game in an unfamiliar venue, which could keep scoring in check.
Friday Night Football Betting Picks
Below, you will find one game pick and three props for Chiefs vs Chargers. Odds are courtesy of the indicated sportsbook as of September 4 at 7:00 pm ET.
Chiefs -3 (-115 DraftKings)
I like that we're getting Chiefs -3 and avoiding the hook, even though we have to pay an extra five cents (-115 instead of -110) to do so. This gives us an extra out to avoid a loss by securing a push if the Chiefs win by a field goal.
Aside from the obvious angle in that we're getting Mahomes at a short number on a neutral field, there's one key factor that I'm zeroing in on with this game, and it's in the trenches.
Let's start with Chiefs' rookie offensive tackle Josh Simmons. The former Ohio State standout fell into Kansas City's laps at the end of the first round, falling in the draft due to injury concerns. However, Simmons has had a terrific camp, cementing himself as the starting left tackle.
Josh Simmons eating hands to the face and holding his ground. pic.twitter.com/1HKEIrVxZ0
— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) August 10, 2025
This is exactly the type of potentially elite pass protector that the Chiefs need to get back to generating explosive plays in the passing game. I'm betting that Simmons helps unlock this offense in what will be a strong rookie season.
Now, let's move on to the Chargers' left tackle situation. Rashawn Slater, who is widely considered to be among the best offensive linemen in the NFL, suffered a torn patella in camp, and he's now out for the season.
While second-year former first-rounder Joe Alt slides into Justin Herbert's blindside protector, there are a few question marks here. For one, it's Alt's first start at left tackle in the NFL. While he played that in college, there could be some growing pains in the pros after spending his entire rookie year on the right side.
The next concern here is at right tackle, where the Chargers are forced to start Trey Pipkins III. This is a converted guard who had a 49.7 pass blocking grade last season, according to PFF. Pipkins could be a weak point that Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo seeks to exploit in this one.
With that in mind, we'll take Chiefs -3 in this divisional clash.
Friday Night Football Player Props
Isiah Pacheco Over 60.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-114) (FanDuel)
Isiah Pacheco had a disappointing season last year. After fracturing his fibula early in the year, Pacheco was one of the most inefficient runners when he returned, which caused him to lose playing time to Kareem Hunt. It's clear that returning from the injury affected Pacheco's burst.
We saw that happen with Tony Pollard, who had the same injury with the Cowboys. In the year following the injury, Pollard was nowhere near his former self. However, the following season with the Titans, Pollard was a much better runner, despite the worse team context.
I'm expecting a similar situation to happen with Pacheco, who looks poised to be re-inserted as the featured back in this offense. Let's remember that Pacheco had 18 touches for 78 yards and 24 touches for 111 yards in two games before the injury last year.
Reports out of camp have been positive:
Fantasy owners, take note: Isiah Pacheco looks healthy and explosive at camp #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/PEiDLnTrLz
— Taylor Burr (@TaylorBurr10) August 5, 2025
Then you have to consider that with Rashee Rice suspended, we could see Pacheco get more usage in the passing game as a checkdown option, which also bodes well for this prop.
I'm betting that the Chiefs will win this game, so it would be a favorable game script for Pacheco, resulting in more rushing volume as well.
With that in mind, let's take Pacheco to eclipse 60.5 total yards here.
Omarion Hampton Under 65.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-116 DraftKings)
Omarion Hampton is a first-round rookie running back who has gotten a lot of hype throughout the offseason. It's a talented player in a run-heavy offense and strong scheme. With Najee Harris (eye) missing a chunk of camp, it has allowed Hampton to immediately assert himself as the potential lead back in this offense.
However, Najee is ready to go for this game, and the veteran isn't just going to be cast aside. While I agree with the consensus that Hampton is the much better player, that doesn't mean that Najee won't play a role, especially in Week 1.
Look for the Chargers to go with a committee in the first game, with something like a 55-45 split between Hampton and Najee. The fact is, this coaching staff likes the former Steeler.
OC Greg Roman on the RB room:
-"blown away" by Najee Harris' knowledge of the game and movement skills
-Hampton: "really excited""Kimani's (Vidal) looking really good. He's really taken a step. He's got an extra gear this year. He's really asserting himself out there." 👀⚡️ pic.twitter.com/vx0ZEahIJy
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) June 6, 2025
This is a tough Chiefs' run defense, and the Chargers are likely to be playing from behind, so it could be a difficult spot for Hampton to get to 66+ total yards.
You also have to consider that the Greg Roman offenses tend to suppress running back receiving production. Don't expect much of an impact through the air for Hampton.
Add in the fact that generally, rookie running backs see less usage in the first week of the year, and you can see why the under here looks like an appealing wager.
Tre' Harris Under 31.5 Rec Yards (-120 Caesars)
The last pick on my Friday Night Football betting card involves fading another Chargers' rookie, this time it's second-rounder Tre' Harris.
The main angle behind this fade is that the Chargers are a run-heavy offense, and Harris opens the year as the No. 4 wideout, behind Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston.
Fading rookies in Week 1 is going to be a common angle for me in the early stages of the season. I'll do so here as well with Harris, as he's currently buried on the depth chart and will likely take time to make an impact in this offense.
The one way I can see us losing this one is if Harris gets loose downfield, but I'll bet against that happening against a tough Chiefs defense.
Ride with Harris to go under 31.5 receiving yards here.
