MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/10/2025)

July 10, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/10/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Cal Raleigh, Junior Caminero, James Wood, Jurickson Profar, and Sean Murphy.

We have 11 games this Thursday in MLB. We have some elite hitting conditions on the West Coast tonight, as well as some favorable matchups. There are plenty of pitchers going today who have struggled with the long ball. Although it's a small slate, we have plenty of options to attack home runs with on tonight's slate.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than five home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 10, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/10/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, July 10:

• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• James Wood, Washington Nationals
• Jurickson Profar, Atlanta Braves
• Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves

Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+185 DK)

We are going to start our home run journey tonight with the big league home run leader, Cal Raleigh, in Yankee Stadium. What Raleigh is doing this season with his torpedo bat is historic.

Marcus Stroman will get the rock for the Yankees, and he has struggled in his limited time this season back in the big leagues. Stroman has a 5.16 xFIP, 7.8% SwStr, 1.66 WHIP, 1.86 HR/9, and a 36.4% Hard Hit this season.

Lefties have crushed Stroman. He has allowed a .292 AVG, .313 ISO, .604 SLG, and three home runs this season to left-handed hitters. Raleigh is not only the best lefty bat in this lineup, but the best lefty bat this season in the big leagues.

He is slashing .238/.380/.567 with a .947 OPS against right-hand pitching this season. He has hit 22 of his 36 home runs against righties.

Raleigh is a chalk pick, and the odds are not great, but the matchup is too hard to ignore.

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DK)

Righties in Fenway Park, yes please. With Junior Caminero accepting a spot in the home run derby, what better time than for him to go deep the day after. The Rays will square off against Walker Buehler at Fenway Park, where it will be in the low 70s. The weather doesn't scream home runs, but the matchup does.

Junior Caminero announced on Instagram that he’s joined the field for the @TMobile #HRDerby!

Caminero leads American League 3B with 21 home runs. pic.twitter.com/JYfITRlsCY

— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025

Buehler this season has a 4.64 xFIP, 7.9% SwStr, 1.58 WHIP, 1.88 HR/9, and a 34.1% FB. Over his last two starts, he has a 2.00 HR/9. Buehler has allowed 15 home runs this season. Nine of those have come against right-handed hitters this season. Righties have a .215 AVG, .267 ISO, and a .483 SLG this season against him.

Enter, Caminero. Caminero is slashing .259/.303/.522 with a .825 OPS this season against right-hand pitching. He has 17 home runs against the split in 2025.

Caminero is going to hit a dinger over the Green Monster tonight; you can go ahead and book it.

James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DK)

James Wood is going to be an extremely chalky pick tonight across the industry, but the spot is so elite it's hard to ignore. This game will be played in Busch Stadium in St. Louis, a favorable pitchers' park, but it will be in the low 90s at first pitch, making this a neutral hitting spot.

Miles Mikolas will toe the rubber for the Cardinals, and he has struggled with the long ball in 2025. Mikolas has a 4.72 xFIP, 7.0% SwStr, 1.34 WHIP, 1.55 HR/9, 45.5% FB, and a 33.0% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, he has a 7.20 HR/9, 60.5% FB, and a 57.9% Hard Hit.

When I see numbers like these, it's a glaring sign that something is amiss. I am not saying he is hurt, but I would not be surprised to see something come out after this start if he struggles again. These are the places we want to get ahead of as bettors.

What better bat to attack him with than the MVP candidate Wood? Mikolas has a .295 AVG, .232 ISO, and .526 SLG against left-hand hitters this season. He has allowed 10 home runs against the split. Wood is the best lefty bat in this lineup, and it's not close. He is slashing .279/.405/.548 with a .953 OPS. Wood has 15 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.

433 feet
115.9 mph

James Wood crushed this one 🚀 pic.twitter.com/BwYuqfYPHg

— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2025

CJ Abrams and Nathaniel Lowe have excellent BVP against Mikolas, but I am going to side with ole Mr. Reliable in Wood to go deep.

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Jurickson Profar OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DK)

Our last two home run bets tonight come in the best hitting environment on the entire slate. It will be triple-digit temps at first pitch with a double-digit wind blowing out to center field. The last time there were hitting conditions this good, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers broke the slate with offense.

I do not mind attacking Spencer Strider in this weather, but the safer side of this game is the Atlanta Braves squaring off against JP Sears. Sears has a 4.83 xFIP, 8.4% SwStr, 1.27 WHIP, 1.75 HR/9, and a 51.0% FB this season. Over his last two starts, he has a 65.5% FB! In these conditions, balls in the air are going to carry at least 15 to 20 feet farther than usual.

Sears has struggled with right-hand hitters. He has allowed a .258 AVG, .222 ISO, and a .480 SLG to the split this season. Righties have hit 16 of his 18 home runs off of him.

The Braves have multiple righties to attack lefties with. My favorite play here is Jurickson Profar, who, although he has a small sample size against left-hand pitching, is slashing .400/.400/.700 with a 1.100 OPS. He has two hits and a .500 SLG with a 1.167 OPS against Sears in his career.

Profar is leaving the yard tonight, you can book it.

Sean Murphy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+295 DK)

We bet on Sean Murphy in this article on Tuesday, so there's no way I'm not going back to him in an even better matchup. Murphy is slashing .170/.290/.458 with a .748 OPS against left-hand pitching this season. He leads the Braves with five home runs against the split this season.

The reason I love Murphy in this spot, besides his obvious power against left-hand pitching, is some of his underlying numbers. Murphy has a 54.3% FB against lefties this season with a 48.6% Pull. There is a very high likelihood he will hit a ball in the air to the pull side, and in these hitting conditions, I expect it to go over the fence.

This spot is so elite, I don’t mind adding a few more home run props to our card. I love Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, so feel free to build some home run parlays in this game and hope it goes bonkers, which I expect.

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