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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 6/23/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We turned things around a bit on Saturday, hitting two of four NRFIs and cashing our YRFI parlay with those two ridiculously good offensive game environments producing as expected.
I will keep entertaining the YRFIs when the weather and data back them, but understand that the overall hit rate on NRFIs will still be higher, even as we get into the summer months and the weather favors the hitters. Today is a challenging nine-game slate because we do have ideal hitting conditions across most of the country, but also no obvious games that stick out for YRFIs either. Well, maybe one spot...we shall see. The good news is that we are getting good odds on our NRFI picks with all three of those bets at -110 or better today.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, June 23, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as there's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (June 23, 2025)
- Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles: 6:35 pm
- Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: 7:10 pm
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: 7:40 pm
- Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels: 9:40 pm
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles NRFI (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
- BAL: Trevor Rogers
Yes, it's going to be very, very hot in Baltimore tonight, but neither one of these offenses has been very good against lefties this season, and we have a chance at plus money here if we can get a scoreless first frame.
Trevor Rogers struck out the final two batters of the 1st inning on 95 mph fastballs at the top of the zone.
Here's a 95.3 mph heater to strike out Christopher Morel. pic.twitter.com/LTmQ7pGOL6
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) June 18, 2025
I have to repeat this every week (sometimes just to myself so I remember), but Patrick Corbin has been pretty good this year. He brings an 11-2 NRFI record into this one. Trevor Rogers has only made two starts for the Orioles, but is 2-0 on NRFIs so far.
In his last start, he got into some trouble but struck out two hitters to get out of the first inning unscathed. His overall numbers look bad right now, but he's working his way back from a major arm surgery, and I think he will end up being okay for Baltimore once he settles in. His stuff looked pretty good, and his command was excellent during his minor league rehab starts.
Both pitchers are better than you think at first glance, and neither offense stands out as one we have to avoid. I'm taking a shot here at doubling my money on the NRFI.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach
- NYM: Paul Blackburn
Spencer Schwellenbach is an ace, I don't care if he's on the same staff as Spencer Strider and Chris Sale. Schwelly has been fantastic this season, pitching to a 3.22 SIERA and 13.5% SwStr%. He did allow a run in the first inning in his last time out against the Mets on a solo home run to Juan Soto. But he pitched very well after that, settling in and getting the win while recording eight strikeouts.
A first-inning home run is always a threat to ruin an NRFI, but Schwelly has only had it happen one other time to him this season.
I do worry a bit about Paul Blackburn, who is making just his third start of the season. He labored through the first inning against Atlanta in his last start, allowing three runs to the Braves, including a home run to Ronald Acuna Jr.
Blackburn is a veteran pitcher, however, and I think he will likely adjust his approach for today's contest. Atlanta is a tough out, but again, we have to take some risks today on a slate that doesn't feature any aces matching up against each other and a lot of good hitting weather.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PIT: Braxton Ashcraft
- MIL: Chad Patrick
This is probably my favorite spot on the card. We get a pretty good young pitcher in Chad Patrick facing a bad Pirates offense, and then an exciting rookie in Ashcraft attempting to cool off some pretty hot Brewers bats.
Patrick has been money in the first inning this season, going 12-3 on NRFIs and comes in with a six-game NRFI streak. The Pirates are just 2-8 on YRFIs over their last 10 games, too.
On the other side, Ashcraft has yet to make a start for the Bucs, but has pitched very well in relief. He's racked up a 1.54 ERA through his first seven appearances and showed off some plus stuff. He won't be asked to go more than 3-4 innings today, but we just need him to be sharp for that first frame so we can cash this NRFI tonight.
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels YRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Walker Buehler
- LAA: Jack Kochanowicz
So Vegas is siding with the probability of a YRFI instead of a NRFI here, and despite both pitchers entering with a two-game NRFI streak, I have to agree.
Buehler is 8-4 on NRFIs this season, while Kochanowicz is 11-4. Those marks aren't terrible, but the recent trends from these offenses make me feel as if the bats will have the advantage in this one.
The Red Sox have a 50% YRFI hit rate in their last 10 games, while the Angels are at 40%. Those are two of the best marks in baseball.
Nolan Schanuel clubs a go-ahead three run homer 💪 pic.twitter.com/OVsui3tMNh
— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2025
Both pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 and abysmal batted ball data. These are not guys who can strike out the side in the first inning; they will give up contact, and it's often very loud contact. These pitchers have combined to allow five first-inning home runs this season.
Kochanowicz has very poor splits against lefties and will face at least two lefties in the first, and possibly four or five if he allows a baserunner or two.
With both offenses trending up lately, this feels like as good a spot for a YRFI as any. I don't care which team scores, just get us on the board early so we can cash this bet!
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Athletics (90%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Red Sox, Cubs, Braves (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Cubs (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Rays (.350)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Rays (.447)
Conclusion: Smart Value on NRFIs Despite Hitter-Friendly Conditions
As summer heat ramps up and offense across the league continues to surge, MLB NRFI betting requires sharper judgment and deeper trend analysis than ever.
Even on a day filled with ideal hitting conditions, NRFI bets today still offer strong value, especially when paired with favorable pitcher matchups and struggling top-of-the-order bats.
Monday’s 9-game slate doesn’t provide many obvious YRFI spots, which makes the plus-value NRFI picks even more appealing. With sharp odds and a few sneaky-good matchups, today’s NRFI slate could quietly be one of the most profitable of the week for MLB NRFI betting enthusiasts.
Good luck if you choose to tail these bets, and please remember to bet responsibly!
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