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Adam Koffler identifies four early round running back busts for the 2025 fantasy football season. His top RBs to avoid include Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and more.
Last offseason, I wrote about a few running backs to avoid in 2024. Unfortunately, that didn't pan out too well. However, like Aaliyah, I will "dust myself off and try again."
We're back with the 2025 edition of early round running back busts to avoid. It's not that these guys aren't talented; they're just too expensive this season. And as you're reading the article, keep in the back of your mind that a target is worth about 2.74 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues.
I won't make the mistake of fading Derrick Henry again, but I will be fading two guys from the 2024 list of early round RB busts. Check out my top-4 early round avoids at the running back position in 2025.
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Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Underdog ADP - 2.9 (RB1)
Barkley is coming off a career year in his first season with the Eagles. After rushing for a career-high 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns, he finds himself as the consensus overall RB1 in 2025 fantasy football.
One might think to themselves, "and rightfully so." However, it's scary paying that inflated price tag for a 28-year-old coming off a year with 378 touches on 1,020 offensive snaps.
Only two other running backs played more than 800 offensive snaps last season: Kyren Williams (1,005, age 24) and Bijan Robinson (861, age 23).
Despite a career-best mark of 5.81 yards per carry, PFF graded Barkley outside the top-10 rushers in 2024 (84.7). And per Fantasy Points Data, Barkley was a +5.4 in fantasy points over expected. Essentially, he overproduced relative to expectation.
Then there's the decrease in work as a pass-catcher. Barkley's 43.8% route participation rate and 2.7 targets per game last season were both career lows. Therefore, unlike with the Giants, his production through the air won't be enough to make up for any regression on the ground.
A whopping 80% of Barkley's fantasy points came on the ground as opposed to through the air in 2024. Last season, the Eagles outscored their opponents by 160 points, which meant they were pounding the rock a ton with their lead back.
However, things could look a little different in 2025, as their schedule appears to be a bit tougher on the surface. With Barkley less involved in the passing game in Philadelphia, that could lead to fewer touches this season.
Last, but most certainly not least, the "Tush Push" factor. It was looking like the Eagles' bread and butter could be banned for the upcoming season, but that did not end up happening.
Instead, look for Jalen Hurts and company to run that play as much as humanly possible in 2025. And with that comes fewer goal-line opportunities for Barkley.
Compare that to Saquon Barkley, who accounted for just 41.5% of his team’s rush attempts inside the 5
That’s because Jalen Hurts had the fourth-most rush attempts inside the 5 (18) last season behind just Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs
Bull case for Henry, bear case for Saquon
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 6, 2025
As the second or third player off draft boards, Barkley is a guy who should be avoided at cost in 2025.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Underdog ADP - 24.9 (RB10)
Like Barkley, Jacobs saw his route participation decrease significantly with a new team last season (25.5%). And like Barkley, the vast majority of his fantasy points came on the ground (74%).
Despite catching his first career receiving touchdown, Jacobs saw just 2.5 targets per game in his first season with the Packers. His 9.3% target share was the lowest it's been since his rookie season.
Jacobs was a popular fade last season because head coach Matt LaFleur tended to have a split backfield in Green Bay. However, that didn't come to fruition with rookie third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd available for just one game.
Instead, Jacobs had a 67% opportunity share in 2024. But with Lloyd 100% healthy heading into the 2025 season, LaFleur might be able to get back to the more evenly split backfield he desires.
For as good as Aaron Jones was for all those years in Green Bay with LaFleur, he averaged just a 57% opportunity share. That may be where LaFleur would prefer Jacobs to be in 2025.
Even if it's not Lloyd taking some of the work away from Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson is probably deserving of a bigger piece of the pie himself this season. He received the 12th-highest PFF grade among running backs. That put him right between two studs in Barkley and De'Von Achane, impressive!
Wilson was also more explosive than Jacobs, and by a good margin:
Interesting note: a lot of the Packers' explosive runs came from Emanuel Wilson, Malik Willis, and their WRs pic.twitter.com/omOajalkE0
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 11, 2025
With more legitimate and proven options at their disposal, expect the Packers to decrease Jacobs' usage coming off a 337-touch season in hopes of keeping him healthy and effective throughout the season.
For the Packers, that sounds like a great plan. But for fantasy managers, that means fewer fantasy points and more risk when drafting Jacobs at his ADP around the Round 2/3 turn.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Underdog ADP - 35.2 (RB13)
The Jets have a new head coach in Aaron Glenn (from Detroit) and a new starting quarterback in Justin Fields.
While there have been mixed signals on Hall's usage for the upcoming season, it can't be forgotten that Glenn talked early in the offseason about getting all three of his running backs on the field as much as possible.
#Jets HC Aaron Glenn on Breece Hall and the RB room:
• “I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible”
• It could be a 1-2-3 punch with the guys we have
• If we can get them all on the field at one time, we’ll do that pic.twitter.com/2d3EvvEjed
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 31, 2025
It's possible that, as the new leader, he was just gassing up the entire running back room in Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis. But it's also possible he meant what he said.
Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most efficient and effective running backs last season, split work with David Montgomery. Despite his elite production, Gibbs finished the season with just a 53% opportunity share and a 35% route participation rate.
While Glenn and the new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, were not directly responsible for the division of work among the backs, that's the system they come from.
In 2024, Hall registered a 69% opportunity share and ranked first among all running backs in route participation rate (70%), per PlayerProfiler. Based on the new coaching regime and the new mobile quarterback (Fields), it seems highly unlikely Hall's usage in the passing game continues at the rate it has in his career.
In six starts for the Steelers last season, Fields threw to his running backs just 5.7 times per game. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers checked it down to his backs (Hall and Allen) 7.8 times per game.
Bears running backs were also bottom five in targets in two of three seasons with Fields as the starter between 2021 and 2023.
Not only does Fields not check down to his running backs, but he is also going to take off and run 8-10 times per game. Compare that to Rodgers, who took off just 22 times in 17 games for the Jets last season. Fields has 19 career rushing touchdowns on 418 attempts.
Hall needs as many high-leverage opportunities as he can get on an offense that could struggle to reach the red zone again in 2025. On a team projected to win just six games this season, those opportunities could be few and far between.
As wild as this sounds, Fields had more carries inside the 10-yard line (11) than Hall did last season (10). Hall played in 16 games, while Fields started in just six and played in a total of 10.
Avoid the headache and let somebody else draft Hall in the third round of your fantasy football drafts.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Underdog ADP - 42.6 (RB14)
He can't keep getting away with this! Last season, I faded Cook because of his lack of red-zone work. In 2023, he ceded work to Latavius Murray of all people.
But then last season, the Bills proceeded to give their 190-pound back 48 red-zone carries after having just 31 the year prior. He tied Gibbs and Henry with a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns, but his touchdown rate is completely unsustainable.
James Cook scored a touchdown every 13.6 opportunities in 2025
2024 - 48.5
2023 - 41Cook’s 18 touchdowns on 245 opportunities last season feels like the obvious outlier
For comparison, Saquon scored a touchdown every 25.9 opportunities last season while Bijan was at 25.1
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 23, 2025
You might not believe it based on his fantasy output, but Cook's opportunity decreased from 2023 to 2024. He had a lower snap share (55.1% vs. 49.2%), opportunity share (62.4% vs. 58.9%), and route participation rate (45.9% vs. 27.4%). That led to fewer carries and targets per game.
His touches also decreased significantly after the Bills' bye week. Before the bye, he averaged 16.2 touches per game. After the bye, that number dropped to just 12.8 touches per game.
That's because rookie Ray Davis and pass-catching specialist Ty Johnson were getting more involved in the game plan. And for good reason.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Davis bested Cook in both missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24 vs. 0.20) and percentage of yards that come after contact (65.2% vs. 50.9%). He's good at football.
still a Ray Davis believer
compact, decisive, strong, balance
was a nightmare for many fill players and CBs. Broke plenty of arm tackles at the first and second levels pic.twitter.com/h2KaFI84jM
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 27, 2025
Meanwhile, Johnson received the 10th-highest PFF receiving grade in 2024 (73.0), just behind Jahmyr Gibbs (74.8).
One should reasonably expect Davis to continue seeing more and more work alongside Cook this season. And with Johnson thriving as a receiver, Cook's usage in the passing game could continue to fall as well.
Those factors, along with Cook's unsustainable TD rate and Josh Allen's prowess at the goal line, make Cook an easy fade at ADP this season.
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