MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/12/2025)

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/12/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, Jeff McNeil, Heliot Ramos and Vinnie Pasquantino.

We have a small slate for Thursday's MLB games. Today's game, particularly one, has elite hitting weather that we will look to exploit. The weather all over the East Coast is starting to heat up, and this is the time of the year when more home runs are beginning to leave the yard. My man Frank nailed two home runs yesterday, so let's keep the good mojo going.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 12, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/12/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, June 12:

• Juan Soto, New York Mets
• Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
• Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel)

We will start our home run card in the first game of the day. You all know what that means, right? The Mets will square off against Michael Soroka at Citi Field in New York. The weather in this game is by far the best on the entire slate for offense. It will be in the upper 80s with wind blowing out at 10 mph to right center field.

Michael Soroka has been above average this season. He has a 3.51 xFIP, 8.6% SwStr, 1.11 WHIP, 1.46 HR/9, 36.4% FB, and a 32.4% Hard Hit this season. These numbers are neither exceptional nor noteworthy enough to stand out. The interest I have here is in the splits and weather, particularly concerning wind direction.

Soroka has struggled with severe splits this season against left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .359 wOBA, .518 SLG, 2.1 HR/9, 38.1% FB, and a 37.5% Hard Hit this season to the split. The other intriguing thing is his pull rate against lefties this season. 54.7% of the balls hit are pulled. On an 85-degree day with wind blowing out to right field, I like the chances of multiple lefties getting something up in the jet stream.

Soto has been red hot as of late. He is twelfth in MLB over the last 14 days with a .707 SLG. He has a .436 wOBA and a .206 ISO against right-hand pitching in 2025. Soto has twelve home runs this season.

Juan Soto homers for a second straight night! pic.twitter.com/NAB9H7y5je

— MLB (@MLB) June 11, 2025

Soroka has given up much of his power to his four-seamer and his slurve this season to lefties. That accounts for 80% of his pitch mix against left-handed hitters. His four-seamer has a .379 wOBA, .579 SLG, and four home runs against it, and his slurve has a .240 wOBA, .340 SLG, and two home runs against it. Below is how Soto profiles against those two pitches.

• Four seamer: 268 pitches, .410 wOBA, .234 ISO, 3 HR, 18 LA
• Slurve (slider+curve data): 151 pitches, .190 wOBA, .029 ISO, 0 HR, -3 LA

Soto does not hit the slurve well, but I am throwing it out the window because that is the only box he does not check. Look for Soto to stay hot.

Jeff McNeil OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 FanDuel)

I will stay in the same game and even the same team for my second bet. Why not try to double our luck in the first game of the day? Jeff McNeil will get the same matchup as Soto above in these elite hitting conditions.

McNeil is my top bet on my card this afternoon. He has been elite against right-hand pitching since his return from the IL. He has a .368 wOBA and a .272 ISO against the split during that span. He also pulls the ball for all his power, as he has a 53.5% Pull this season. McNeil, like Soto, is red hot at the moment. He is 11th in baseball over the last 14 days with a .711 SLG.

McNeil hits the mix of Soroka even better than Soto.

• Four seamer: .439 wOBA, .390 ISO, 5 HR, 19 LA
• Slurve: .463 wOBA, .308 ISO, 1 HR, 22 LA

I am all in one McNeil today. He always treats me right, so I don't mind boosting this or parlaying this piece for some fun today.

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Heliot Ramos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The San Francisco Giants will play a day game in Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela. It is warm in Colorado, and when the weather heats up, it is when I love to start targeting home runs in this park.

Senzatela will get the rock for the Giants. He has a 4.75 xFIP, 7.0% SwStr, 1.97 WHIP, 1.60 HR/9, 29.5% FB, and a 39.2% Hard Hit this season. The ground ball percentage is high, but when the ball is in the air, it is over the fence. Over his last two starts, he has a 6.13 xFIP, 5.4% SwStr, 2.13 WHIP, 2.25 HR/9, 32.2% FB, and a 54.8% Hard Hit.

Righties have hit him well, and that's the split we want to attack with. He has a .408 wOBA, .231 ISO, 2.3 HR/9, 20.0% FB, and a 60.0% Hard Hit. He has allowed eight home runs to right-handed hitters in 2025.

Enter, Heliot Ramos. Ramos has been one of the best hitters for the Giants this season. He has a .370 wOBA and a .186 ISO against the split this season. He is also red hot at the moment. Over the last fourteen days, he has a .532 SLG.

Senzatela has seen five of his eight home runs to righties be hit off his slider. It has a .404 wOBA and a .590 SLG against it in 2025. Ramos in 2025 has seen 55 pitches like Senzatela's slider. He has a .427 wOBA, .364 ISO, and one home run against it.

I am all over this Ramos home run as he is my favorite bet in this game.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel)

We will lean into some recent trends in our last home run bet of the night. The Yankees and Will Warren will square off against the Royals in the third game of their series in Kansas City. There are neutral hitting conditions today, and this is the worst park in the big leagues for home runs.

The reason I'm taking a shot on Vinnie Pasquantino today is due to some recent trends on both sides. Warren has allowed a 6.87 xFIP, 2.50 WHIP, 2.70 HR/9, 57.1% FB, and a 47.6% Hard Hit over his last two starts. He has allowed a .534 wOBA, .895 SLG, 4.2 HR/9, 53.3% FB, and a 53.3% Hard Hit against lefties during that span. Those are some big numbers, and lefties are demolishing him.

I will bite into a Pasquantino home run today because he is the top left-handed bat in this lineup, yes, but he is also scorching hot at the moment. He has a 1.239 OPS and a .720 SLG over his last 27 plate appearances. He also has a .501 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-hand pitching over the previous thirty days.

I don’t mind keeping this matchup simple and not digging too deeply into pitch mix. The recent trend numbers are big enough for me to take a shot on Pasquantino tonight.

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