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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/22/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Brent Rooker, Trevor Story, Gavin Sheets, and more.
Today, we have a typical Thursday slate of MLB action, with a little over half of the teams playing. Our focus will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that is due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We have five hitters in five different games tonight.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our five hitters to go deep - or maybe just one of our long shots!
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 22, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/22/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, May 22:
- Gavin Sheets, San Diego Padres
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
- Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
- Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
- Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
Gavin Sheets OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We start our day with a 1:07 PM start time and a match-up between the Padres and Blue Jays in Toronto. Bowden Francis will be our first target this afternoon.
Francis has a 4.63 xFIP, 2.72 HR/9, and a 44.6% FB this season. Over his last 30 days, he has a 5.15 xFIP, 3.47 HR/9, and a 49.4% FB rate. He has allowed 14 home runs this season. Francis has gotten crushed by left-handed hitters. He has given up 11 of his 14 home runs against left-handed hitters.
Several lefties profile well against Francis, but I can never get Jackson Merrill right, and Gavin Sheets always treats me well. So Sheets it is. This season, he has a .374 wOBA and a .211 ISO against right-hand pitching. Over his last 31 PA, he has a .353 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a .817 OPS.
Where would this Padres team be without Gavin Sheets?
What a solid pickup pic.twitter.com/7gRiGmePfD
— SleeperPadres (@SleeperPadres) May 3, 2025
Sheets hits Francis's four-seam fastball well. He has a .505 wOBA and a .409 ISO against this pitch. Francis has allowed six home runs already in 2025 against his four-seamer. I love the chances of Sheets getting us started on our Thursday card.
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Our second home run bet of the night will be another afternoon game, this time on the West Coast in Sacramento between the Athletics and Angels. Southpaw Tyler Anderson will get the ball for the Angels.
I usually like to target Anderson with left-hand hitters for power, but there aren't any lefties in this lineup that I like. Anderson has allowed five of his nine home runs to righties, so there is power there, but the SLG suggests lefties are the better route.
Brent Rooker has been a lefty masher his entire career, and 2025 is no different. Rooker has a .441 wOBA and a. .378 ISO against left-hand pitching in 2025. He has hit three of his ten home runs against lefties this season. He is red hot against the split, with a .424 wOBA and a .300 ISO over his last 23 PA.
Brent Rooker got all of this one pic.twitter.com/BdZDlu35wO
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 2, 2025
The wind will blow out, and it will be in the mid-80s at first pitch, making this a favorable spot for hitters. Sign me up for a Rooker long ball.
Alec Bohm OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+630 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Our third home run bet is another spot with favorable hitting conditions. This time, it's Coors Field and the mile-high elevation. As we all know, home run odds in this park are for suckers, but I am not attacking Harper or Schwarber; instead, I am going to take a shot on Alec Bohm at better odds.
German Marquez has shown reverse splits in 2025. He has a .431 wOBA and a .294 ISO against right-handed hitters in 2025. Lefties have hit him very well, too, but I love the spot for Bohm as he is red hot.
Bohm has a .522 wOBA, .318 ISO, and a 1.253 OPS over his last 25 PA against right-hand pitching. He has two home runs during that span. This park is built for right-handed power, and Bohm will get an elite matchup at a significant number in the betting markets.
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Bo Naylor OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We are going to get off the board here with Bo Naylor. Jose Ramirez looks good here, but I like Naylor just as much, so let’s take the higher odds. The Guardians will head to Comerica Park to face the Tigers and Jack Flaherty.
Flaherty has had his ups and downs in 2025, but he has gotten hurt by the long ball. He has allowed a 1.93 HR/9, 43.0% FB, and a 36.9% Hard Hit in 2025. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a 5.19 HR/9, 60.9% FB, and a 43.5% Hard Hit. I will buy into these recent trends for Flaherty.
Naylor has been electric this season for the Guardians against right-hand pitching. Naylor has a .329 wOBA and a .253 ISO against right-hand pitching this season. He has already hit six home runs in 2025. He is red hot with a .322 wOBA and a .267 ISO over his last 19 PA.
Bo Naylor sends one 410 feet to tie things up in Toronto 🚀 pic.twitter.com/9EsMiVI0H5
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2025
Flaherty has given up seven home runs already in 2025 against his four-seamer. Naylor crushes the four-seamer of Flaherty. This season, he has a .375 wOBA and a .351 ISO against that pitch. He has one home run off Flaherty in seven plate appearances.
The wind is blowing out to right field tonight, making Naylor a top option for me to hit a home run tonight.
Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+870 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Last but not least, we head to Boston and Fenway Park for a matchup between the Red Sox and the Orioles. The weather is not ideal for hitting, but the matchup is so elite here for Story, I don’t care.
Povich has been a constant theme in this article. We hit on him twice with Byron Buxton this season. Povich has allowed a 4.08 xFIP, 1.74 HR/9, and a 40.9% FB this season. He has been crushed by right-handed hitters. He has allowed all eight of his home runs this season to righties.
Story is another bona fide lefty masher. He has a .389 wOBA and a .250 ISO against the split in 2025. He has hit half of his home runs this season against left-handed pitching.
Story is a guy who likes to pull the ball for power, and this park is built for him. Povich has a 45.0% pull against right-handed hitters. I can already see it right now, Story pulling a ball onto the street behind the Green Monster.
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