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Daily fantasy NASCAR DFS projections and lineup picks for DraftKings for Duel Race No. 1 at Daytona International Speedway. Who are the favorite picks in the race?
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The NASCAR Cup Series will host two races on Thursday evening at Daytona International Speedway to determine the final starting order for Sunday's Daytona 500, also known as "The Great American Race."
These races, traditionally known as the Duels, are compact, 150-mile competitions. Not only do these races offer fans an exciting preview of the racing action we can expect on Sunday, but they give us race-hungry fans even more time of cars on track before the official start of the season.
DraftKings is giving us twin $60K GPPs for the two Duel races on Thursday night, with the top prize for each set at $10K. You can also join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
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This DraftKings Projections and Picks article, my industry-leading Betting Picks, as well as my exclusive Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order posts are typically reserved for Premium RotoBaller subscribers, but we have decided to make these FREE for the Duel races at Daytona this week.
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Lineup Building Strategy and Race Theories to Consider for Duel No. 1
It's a good idea to analyze each Duel race and see if any strategy or correlation could help shape your DraftKings lineup-building strategy. Below are a few of the things that I have noticed for the first Duel race:
- The two Duel races are both short events with a small field. With only 150 miles scheduled on a 2.5-mile track, we're looking at a total of 60 laps for each Duel on Thursday night. This means that place differential and finishing position are the targets when it comes to building DraftKings lineups, and while dominator FPTS for laps led and fastest laps could come into play, you shouldn't focus on them.
- There are only four Fords in Duel Race No. 1 out of 23 total cars. They are: Ryan Preece, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, and Chandler Smith (who is in a shitbox). All of these guys drive for different teams, so it decreases the chances they will work together specifically despite running the same manufacturer. Personally, I don't think I'll have much Ford exposure.
- There are five Toyotas in this field. Chase Briscoe, who is on the pole, should be avoided in DFS contests, but increasing correlation when it comes to Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace is a good idea, in my opinion. They'll likely be working together.
- The Open drivers fighting to lock their spot in this year's Daytona 500 in Duel No. 1 are Justin Allgaier, Helio Castroneves, Chandler Smith, and JJ Yeley. When it comes to speed, Allgaier and Castroneves have the advantage, and the latter is locked in no matter what, thanks to NASCAR's provisional.
- Stacking the Spire Motorsports Chevrolets is an interesting strategy for this Duel. Justin Haley and Carson Hocevar both have very good Place Differential upside and will likely work with Michael McDowell during the race if the opportunity presents itself.
Core Driver Picks for Duel No. 1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8.8K) - We have one of the best superspeedway racers in the field starting 21st out of a 23-car field. Looking back to last year's Duel race, Stenhouse started deep in the field and led the second-most laps (15) before retiring due to the DVP. I fully expect Wrecky to go all-0ut on Thursday night.
Martin Truex Jr ($6.2K) - One driver who is locked into the Daytona 500 field and has nothing to race for on Thursday night is Martin Truex Jr.
There's a chance that he races conservatively to not damage the No. 56 Toyota, but then again, Truex loves to get up there and compete at these superspeedways. There is a pack of Toyotas starting 12th through 15th, and you have to think Truex is going to want to join in on the fun there.
Tournament Driver Picks for Duel #1
Underweight on Ross Chastain ($9.2K) - I'm interested to see what Ross Chastain does on Thursday night. I have a gut feeling that he and his teammate, Helio Castroneves, are going to ride around the back and try to avoid wrecking their race cars. Castroneves is in no matter what. Why would Trackhouse not be super conservative?
Chastain projects high this week in both FPTS and ownership. Considering he starts 19th, there's plenty of Place Differential potential there. But if he lays off for this race, I like being underweight on him in DFS.
Chase Elliott ($8.6K) - NASCAR's Most Popular Driver is a bona fide stud in the Duels. He has finished inside the top five in each of the last four years in this race, and he has two Duel wins to his credit as well (in 2017 and 2018). Chase will roll off the starting grid from eighth on Thursday night and I like being overweight on him in tournaments.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan's Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Duel #1 on Thursday night, according to my projections, is:
- Bubba Wallace
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Busch
- Carson Hocevar
- Martin Truex Jr
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DraftKings Driver Projections for Duel No. 1
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember: the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| Bubba Wallace | $9,600 | 46.90 | 47.88% | 15 | 06.6 | $205 |
| Chase Elliott | $8,600 | 43.50 | 47.43% | 8 | 05.8 | $198 |
| Kyle Busch | $8,000 | 42.90 | 41.15% | 7 | 06.2 | $186 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9,500 | 40.80 | 33.09% | 14 | 09.6 | $233 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,200 | 40.75 | 44.72% | 19 | 11.4 | $226 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $6,200 | 40.40 | 21.01% | 12 | 08.8 | $153 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 39.40 | 24.98% | 11 | 08.2 | $228 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,800 | 37.00 | 29.33% | 18 | 13.0 | $211 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $8,800 | 37.00 | 53.21% | 21 | 14.4 | $238 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,200 | 35.05 | 20.14% | 13 | 11.0 | $234 |
| Helio Castroneves | $6,000 | 33.35 | 20.68% | 20 | 15.6 | $180 |
| Chandler Smith | $5,800 | 32.50 | 16.45% | 22 | 16.6 | $178 |
| Justin Haley | $7,400 | 31.95 | 31.65% | 16 | 14.2 | $232 |
| Austin Dillon | $5,400 | 31.75 | 11.23% | 4 | 09.2 | $170 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,600 | 29.20 | 21.63% | 23 | 19.0 | $192 |
| Josh Berry | $7,200 | 28.45 | 14.68% | 3 | 09.8 | $253 |
| Ryan Preece | $7,600 | 28.35 | 13.85% | 2 | 09.6 | $268 |
| Justin Allgaier | $8,400 | 27.25 | 24.09% | 17 | 16.6 | $308 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,400 | 26.60 | 19.57% | 9 | 13.4 | $241 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,900 | 26.50 | 24.07% | 10 | 13.8 | $260 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,600 | 25.85 | 16.26% | 1 | 10.6 | $255 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 24.60 | 9.72% | 5 | 12.8 | $203 |
| Zane Smith | $5,200 | 23.90 | 13.18% | 6 | 13.2 | $218 |
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