RADIO
Hello beautiful people, we are finally back to our regularly scheduled program after a multiweek hiatus with vacations and the weirdness of last week's tournament schedule. The start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is a round away from completion as Hideki Matsuyama commands a strong five-shot lead going into Sunday's final round.
Approach play has been king at TPC Southwind, as everyone in the top five is inside the top 10 in strokes gained on approach. Conditions could not have been more perfect this week, and with much of the same slated for tomorrow's round, catching Matsuyama is a definite possibility, especially if he doesn't keep the hammer down as he has over the first three days.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Given the time of year and location, players couldn't ask for better weather to create some momentum for a deep playoff run or to better their seeding position for the Tour Championship in a few weeks. It's interesting to note that the lowest score in two of the three days came from the early morning start times, which may be something to keep in mind as we go along.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele had a sluggish second round, which axed his chance to win tomorrow. However, he has turned in modest scores of 66 and 67 in rounds one and three that have both ranked inside the top 15 in strokes gained on approach (R1: +0.99 | R3: +1.74) and top 10 in strokes gained tee to green (R1: +2.08 | R3: +2.93).
New little series!!! Speed Golf. Rapid-fire interviews with the best golfers in the world.
I love how much personality Xander Schauffele shows here. Sneaky a very funny guy. pic.twitter.com/xrHOsVeq2E
— Dan Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) January 24, 2024
Other Options: If anyone can chase down the lead, it's Scottie Scheffler.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Tommy Fleetwood has shown up to Memphis with the same level of ball striking he displayed at his silver medal performance in France a couple of weeks ago, however, the putting has not. He's currently the 3rd ranked player in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.74) with complimentary play off the tee and around the green. In 32nd place on the FedEx Cup points list, he still has some ground to make up if he wants to play at East Lake and is in prime position to do that here.
Other Options: Russell Henley, Aaron Rai
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners may seem like a reach given that he's struggled to get much going in any round so far this week, but, given his iron play prowess, the 20th-ranked player in fourth-round scoring average (68.95) is one to watch tomorrow if he can manage to keep a double bogey off the card--something he hasn't done yet through three rounds.
His strengths haven't been up to his normal standard, though a horrendous second round is mostly to blame. The good news is that he has historically performed better on the greens at TPC Southwind than most other tour stops, and he has the talent to reel in the ball striking at a moment's notice.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Billy Horschel
$7,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard to argue with how well Will Zalatoris plays TPC Southwind. A tie for eighth in 2021 followed by a win the next year is big-time stuff for a guy to lean into while trying to get back to some level of form over the last 16 injury-plagued months. He sits in a tie for sixth with a solid chance to secure quality starts for next season with a solid final round.
He hasn't done anything spectacular this week, but his consistency all-around has put him in the seventh place ranking for strokes gained tee to green (+1.63). Hopefully, the +1.54 strokes gained on approach during Saturday's round is also a sign of even more positive things to come for the 28-year-old.
Will Zalatoris just made an ace at 14 winning a car for him and also one for his caddie!!
How good is this shot btw! His shot shaping is really impressive 😮💨
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) February 16, 2024
Other Options: Alex Noren, Davis Thompson, Robert Macintyre
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Brendon Todd has made plenty of birdies this week (16), almost as much as anyone in the field through three rounds. The problem is there have been too many mistakes on the other holes, leaving him fighting to stay inside the top 20 on the leaderboard. However, tomorrow's final round is do or die for the 39-year-old if he plans on extending his season.
He currently ranks as the eighth-best player in the field in strokes gained putting (+0.98) and 14th in strokes gained on approach (+0.63). Holding the 66th spot in the FedEx Cup points race, Todd may not be anywhere close enough to challenge the leaders, but he undoubtedly still has a lot to play for.
Other Options: Jhonattan Vegas, Harris English
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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