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Mike Barner details three boom or bust running backs for the 2024 fantasy football season. Which running backs won't be worth their current ADP?
The start of the NFL season is rapidly approaching. That means that we are in the heart of fantasy football draft season. We already have some preseason games in the books, which gives us some insight as to how teams might want to use certain players.
The running back position can be tricky in fantasy. With injuries often piling up at the position, some teams try to limit the workload of their feature backs to try and keep them healthy. That can create some messy situations for fantasy managers.
Let’s highlight three running backs who are boom or bust options heading into the season. All ADP data is from our ADP tool that averages data across multiple platforms.
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Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions – Consensus ADP: 10, Overall: RB 5
Talent is not the question with Gibbs. The 12th overall pick in the 2023 Draft can impact a game both running the ball and catching passes out of the backfield. In his rookie campaign, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per reception. He also racked up 10 rushing touchdowns and one receiving score.
Going into his second season, Gibbs is flying off the board early in fantasy drafts. In most leagues, he is being taken in the first round. However, there is an obstacle to him being worth that kind of a selection. The Lions also still have David Montgomery in the fold.
JAHMYR GIBBS FOR THE TOUCHDOWN
LIONS UP 14-3
pic.twitter.com/MCTufFkn5q— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 15, 2024
Last season, Montgomery received 219 carries over 14 games. Gibbs had 182 carries across 15 games. Montgomery also had 13 rushing touchdowns. An important stat is that Montgomery was given 53 rushing attempts inside the red zone, compared to 38 red zone carries for Gibbs. Unless Gibbs gets more work when the Lions get in close, it will be difficult for him to live up to being selected in the first round of drafts.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins – Consensus ADP: 21, Overall: RB 10
Achane averaged a whopping 7.8 yards per carry during his rookie campaign. He finished with four games of at least 100 rushing yards, despite never receiving more than 18 carries in a game. While Achane isn’t a big running back, his lightening-speed isn’t matched by many others at the position.
There are some concerns with Achane. First is the presence of Raheem Mostert, who posted 209 carries for 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Mostert was given 47 rushing attempts inside the red zone last year, compared to just 23 red zone rushing attempts for Achane.
2️⃣8️⃣ days until Dolphins football is back!
Throwback to when De'Von Achane introduced himself to the world vs. Denver Broncos:
➖ 18 carries
➖ 203 yards
➖ 2 rushing touchdowns
➖ 30 receiving yards
➖ 2 receiving touchdowns💨 #GoFins pic.twitter.com/p5o0G3HbYe
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) August 11, 2024
Another concern with Achane is injuries. He missed six games last season and might never be able to record 200 carries in a season because of his frame. With Mostert on the roster, there is no reason for the Dolphins to push Achane to be a workhorse running back.
There are going to be weeks in which Achane puts up massive stat lines. Mostert hasn’t exactly been a pillar of health during his career, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him miss some time this year. If Mostert wasn’t in the fold, Achane would likely be a first-round pick.
Going toward the end of the second round in many drafts, Achane still has the potential to post over 1,200 total yards and double-digit touchdowns. He’s someone to target in drafts.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans – Consensus ADP: 80, Overall: RB 26
With Ezekiel Elliott gone, last year was supposed to be a breakout campaign for Pollard. The overall numbers of 1,316 total yards and six touchdowns weren’t bad. However, after averaging at least 5.2 yards per carry in three of his first four seasons in the league, he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry last year. His 4.6 yards per reception also checked in as the second-lowest mark of his career.
Elliott is back with the Cowboys and Pollard now finds himself on the Titans. Derrick Henry is gone, but Pollard isn’t going to step into his hefty workload. He will likely find himself in a timeshare with Tyjae Spears, who showed upside while spelling for Henry last season. Not only did Spears average 4.5 yards per carry, but he also caught 52 of 70 targets for 385 yards and one touchdown.
There is a path to Pollard getting over 200 carries again and returning to the efficiency numbers that he recorded earlier in his career. There is also a path to Spears assuming the majority of the workload, which could leave Pollard in a struggle to even post 1,000 total yards.
Spears has a consensus ADP of 96, so he might actually be the more appealing option between the two. In 12-team leagues, Pollard shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than an RB 3.
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