Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Draft Mock 2024 For Superflex Leagues

May 5, 2024

Chris Gregory goes over a fantasy football dynasty rookie mock draft for the 2024 NFL season. Which rookies will make the biggest impact and where should you draft them?

Traditionally, quarterbacks go at the top of Superflex dynasty drafts. That is true in startups and rookie-only drafts. However, that rule has faltered over the past two years. The 2022 NFL Draft included zero high-end quarterback prospects, leading to a running back (Breece Hall) landing at 1.01. The next year was different. We had a quality quarterback class, yet we still saw Bijan Robinson steal the 1.01 in many leagues.

Could another position player rise to 1.01 in this year's Superflex drafts? The answer to that will likely depend on the roster makeup of who owns 1.01 in your rookie drafts. Two quarterbacks in this class (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels) are worth that pick, but Marvin Harrison Jr. is nearly foolproof. Who we expect most will take at 1.01 will be projected below.

Beyond the debate over 1.01, this article will address every pick in a five-round rookie mock draft. The scoring is traditional PPR. Our projections are rooted in the expected ADP, not where each rookie should go. My own rankings and opinions will only act as a tiebreaker in the projections below, but they will inform the notes and advice offered after each projected round.

Round 1

Rome Wasn’t Built in a Day: Popular opinion seems to be that Malik Nabers is the far superior prospect to Rome Odunze. This belief is false. Nabers has more big-play upside and speed, and he makes more people miss. Odunze has the bigger frame, more polished route running, and is a bigger red zone threat. They both do everything well and make contested catches; they just have different elite traits.

There is also a growing belief that Nabers has the superior fantasy landing spot. The LSU product has a clear path to elite volume this year, while Odunze may have to wait to become his team’s WR1. This particular concern is true. Nabers has more short-term value. What is being ignored is that Odunze is attached to an elite QB prospect, while the Giants may not get a quality passer for years.

While Nabers has Odell Beckham Jr.-level star power, Odunze has the frame and quarterback to produce Davante Adams-like stats for a decade. Most dynasty teams picking at 1.04 or 1.05 are rebuilding and are better served with future production than current stats anyway. Does a rebuilding team need an OBJ/Nabers who peak between 2024 and 2028? Or do they need someone whose peak lasts longer but comes later?

Maye v. McCarthy: Most dynasty analysts currently have J.J. McCarthy comfortably ahead of Drake Maye in their rookie rankings. Dynasty managers seem to share this valuation, and it makes sense why. McCarthy is throwing to arguably the best receiver in the NFL, has two other quality pass catchers, and has a top-end left tackle. Maye has… a bunch of rookies and a messy offensive line. All of this said, are we overvaluing landing spots just a bit?

Analysts downgraded C.J. Stroud in 2023 for many of the same reasons Maye is knocked today. Houston’s receiver corps was young and perceived as poor. Stroud had some pre-draft blips and inconsistent production in college, much like Maye. The Texans were also led by a brand-new head coach and rookie offensive coordinator. That sound familiar?

Now, remember how much we loved Trey Lance in 2021. He was raw but mobile with a big arm, good processing power, and a college championship. Lance was also headed to an “ideal landing spot” in San Francisco, with plenty of weapons and a coach that would maximize his talent.

Don’t love that comparison? Consider that Baker Mayfield was a contender for Rookie of the Year in 2018, and by his second year, he had OBJ and Jarvis Landry on his team. Meanwhile, Josh Allen was a major project selected six picks after Mayfield in that class. Allen went to a team with no weapons and struggled for two years… but we all know what passer was the better pick.

What’s Worthy Worth?: Xavier Worthy’s upside playing with Patrick Mahomes is immense. However, the Longhorn is also sleight of build, has real target competition, and Kansas City’s history of developing receivers is more inconsistent than many want to admit. The Longhorn is worth a late first-round pick, but he shouldn’t be taken over Jonathan Brooks, Brock Bowers, or Brian Thomas Jr.

Round 2

Nix That: Never have we seen an NFL Draft class in which six quarterbacks thrived. Even in the hallowed quarterback classes of 1984, 2004, and 2018, there were misses. Heck, the 2021 class was seen as a historic group, yet four of the five quarterbacks taken in the first 15 picks are on different teams and have had their fifth-year options declined just three years later.

Logic dictates at least two first-round quarterbacks in this class will fail. Of those possible failures, Nix’s juice is the least worth the squeeze. The best-case scenario is he becomes Brock Purdy without all the weapons. It’s more likely he becomes a borderline QB2 who can help desperate contenders without a QB2, but he never becomes someone you want to start.

Trouble With Troy: Few analysts were lower on Troy Franklin during the pre-draft process than I was. His drops on film were cringeworthy, and his frame is sleight. He counters those flaws with good deep speed, height, and length and the ability to make big plays. Overall, Franklin earned a late second-round grade from me, but I never considered him a first-round option as many dynasty rankers did.

Now, Franklin has landed in the ideal fantasy home. He has his former college quarterback and has very little competition for targets. This understandably drives up his fantasy cost, and arguing against his new price is hard. However, the concerns with this prospect are still there. Franklin has more short-term upside and bust potential than Adonai Mitchell and Ricky Pearsall.

Landing Spots Tank RB Values: Four running backs are currently projected to go in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts. Of those four, Trey Benson has the best landing spot by a mile. James Conner will be 29 years old this season and has a history of injuries. Expect the Seminole to share time this year, then take Arizona’s lead role from Conner in 2025. That role and Benson’s receiving ability could mean RB1 numbers.

Jaylen Wright is in a much different situation… on paper. The Vol landed in a crowded Miami backfield with almost no chance of ever inheriting an every-down role. However, Mike McDaniel’s system has proven ideal for players with Wright’s big play skillset. The Tennessee product also has a sturdier frame and build than Devon Achane, suggesting Wright was drafted to be the Raheem Mostert heir.

Of the backs in this tier, Blake Corum should be drafted last. He will be 24 years old this year and is three months younger than his primary competition in Los Angeles (Kyren Williams). It’s hard to imagine Corum unseating Williams without a major injury or decline in play from the veteran. That means the fifth-ranked running back in my pre-draft rankings (Corum) could forever be capped at 40% of L.A.’s snaps.

Round 3

Steal of the Draft: Three years ago, I warned people that Elijah Mitchell was a better fit for the 49ers’ scheme than Trey Sermon. I labeled Mitchell a bargain at his third-round cost in dynasty rookie drafts. Last year, I said the same about Tank Dell. This year, my pick for the dynasty steal of the year is… Javon Baker!

Baker is a playmaker with plenty of size and speed, plus his yards-per-route rate is elite. With the lack of quality pass-catching options in New England, either Baker or Ja’Lynn Polk will become Drake Maye’s top target by mid-season. Given his superior athleticism and playmaking, you should expect Baker to be that guy. If the UCF alum can get his drops under control, he will be a WR2 in fantasy someday.

Buying a Bengal: Plenty of draft analysts liked Jermaine Burton’s tape more than I did. I do like his landing spot in Cincinnati though. If all goes well, Burton could replace Tee Higgins by 2025. That WR2 role in Cincinnati is significant for fantasy, even if the receiver filling it isn’t as good as Higgins has been.

Burton is above average in almost every metric and has enough speed to beat average defensive backs deep. That means he will be fantasy-relevant with a prominent role in Cincy. However, Burton isn't a crisp enough route runner to dominate in the slot. He also isn't particularly elusive with the ball in his hands, and he doesn't dominate in contested situations. For those reasons, I see Burton’s ceiling as lower than some do.

Round 4

Undisputed Best Pick of the Fourth Round:  The fourth round of this rookie class will be deeper than usual. Last year the likes of Clayton Tune were taken in round four, but this year multiple fantasy-relevant players should slip into this range.

Atop the likely fourth-round picks is Kimani Vidal. The Chargers' current backfield consists of the one-dimensional dinosaur (Gus Edwards), an always-injured J.K. Dobbins, and the afterthought Isaiah Spiller. There is room for an unknown rookie to ascend this depth chart. Vidal can be that guy. The Troy alum handled a heavy workload in college, is effective at the goal line, and has a good change of direction.

Round 5

Giving it Your All:  Erick All struggled with injuries at Iowa, but he was the Hawkeye's best weapon in the few games he played this year. His size and profile suggest he has some upside to become a pass-catching starter in time. His landing spot with the Bengals is also ideal since Cincy has searched for a real weapon at tight end for years.

Ravens Runner: Rasheen Ali is a fluid runner with good agility and is an experienced route runner. The Ravens have a history of giving late-round backs a chance to succeed, which could be needed with the aging Derrick Henry as their lead. Ali has a better frame for contact than Keaton Mitchell and could eventually carve out a rotational role for Baltimore that merits keeping him in your taxi slot.

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