RADIO
The Pittsburgh Pirates started the season 5-0. I repeat... The Battlin' Buccos won their first five games of the season, averaging 7.8 runs per game.
So far, this surprising offense has been led by two recently extended franchise pillars and a young stud-in-the-making. These pieces are critical for the Pirates' success, and perhaps they'll become valuable fantasy baseball breakouts too.
Where might these North Shore hitters end up this season, and can they help forge your path to a fantasy championship? Let's take a look.
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Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT)
84% Rostered
Ke'Bryan Hayes inked a massive extension with the Bucs last year before earning a Gold Glove at third base while contributing fair numbers on offense. This offseason, the 27-year-old went to work trying to improve his hit tool, and he piqued some interest in Spring Training with a .412 batting average and three round-trippers in just over 50 at-bats.
Over the first five games of the season, Hayes has been planted in the three-hole, hitting .391 with three doubles, five runs, and five RBI. Some batted ball information from FanGraphs helps us fill in the gaps:
Nothing is jumping off the page here that would make us think Hayes has become a batting title contender overnight. However, the line drive rate is enticing, though the lack of fly balls is worrisome from a Roto perspective.
All-in-all, it's fair to optimistically project a .285 average from the 2015 draft pick, which would be .014 points higher than his career-best last year. Fantasy managers would LOVE to see between 15-20 home runs, and 15 steals tacked on. If Hayes can keep this coveted spot in a much-improved batting order, 170 combined runs and RBI are on the table.
Hayes is more of an asset in points leagues compared to Roto leagues, but there's enough value for his bat to be relied upon in both. Let's hope the young leader in black and yellow can stay healthy and keep improving that bat.
Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT)
96% Rostered
Many thought Bryan Reynolds was all but gone from western Pennsylvania this past off-season, but in the end, he also agreed to a massive deal to stay in Pittsburgh for years to come. Reynolds is coming off his third straight year of great health and production at the plate and continued improvement as an outfielder.
The switch hitter has rewarded the Pirates for opening their wallet so far by hitting .333 with a home run and eight RBI through April 1 from the second spot in the order. Some batted ball data from FanGraphs backs up Reynolds' strong numbers thus far:
The 29-year-old seems to be emphasizing a fly ball approach more than ever, and he's paired that with an impressive 29.4% hard-hit rate early on. Reynolds has surprising pop, and he appears to be well on his way to another 25-homer season if this approach and good health continue.
The days of the Vanderbilt product flirting with a .300 average are probably gone, but fantasy managers (and Pirates fans) would be thrilled with something around .280, and with that would come at least 90 runs and 90 RBI. If Reynolds can tack on 10+ steals for the second year in a row, we're looking at a strong second outfielder in both points and Roto leagues.
Reynolds isn't someone to break the bank for unless these trends start to show a 30+ home run pace and/or a .300 hitter. Even still, a switch hitter in the two-hole of a strong lineup who should play 150 games provides plenty of intrigue for any fantasy manager.
Oneil Cruz (SS, PIT)
98% Rostered
Oneil Cruz is the biggest question mark of the three, but he undoubtedly provides the biggest fantasy upside. The 25-year-old played just nine games in 2023 before a fractured ankle put him on the shelf for the remainder of what would've been his first full season in the big leagues.
Question marks swirled about whether Cruz would garner the same upside after such a massive injury, but he quieted those concerns quickly with seven Spring Training home runs to go along with a .261 batting average in 46 at-bats.
It's been a quirky start for Cruz to start the regular season, as the Pirates have faced five straight left-handed starters to begin the year. As such, the big lefty has hit sixth and seventh in the order, though he's expected to be in the lead-off spot against right-handed pitchers.
The fact that Cruz started four out of those five games is actually a very good sign, especially considering he hit an opposite-field home run off a left-handed pitcher on Opening Day. The batted ball data isn't going to be sparkling, but when considering that most at-bats have been against southpaws, it becomes much more intriguing:
The lack of any pulled balls can be attributed to the fact that Cruz is trying to stay short against lefties, but the hard-hit percentage and the fly ball tendency are what make us excited. Those numbers should only go up as we see more at-bats against righties in the coming weeks.
The power/speed combo is what fantasy managers drooled over on draft day, and while we haven't seen the results yet, the opportunity to play is clearly there, which is half the battle for a young, ever-growing prospect like Cruz. It's not out-of-the-question to put a 40/40 season on the table for Cruz if he can hit 10 homers against lefties this year, hit in the lead-off spot against RHPs, and (most importantly of all) stay healthy.
As of right now, though, fantasy managers should approach Cruz as a 30-homer player with 20-25 steals tacked on. The average should only go up with more Major League at-bats, and I imagine the shortstop falls somewhere in the .255 range when the dust settles in 2024... but .270 is absolutely on the table in a perfect world.
There aren't many players that carry the mystique and upside that Cruz does, which makes him a massive high-risk/high-reward option for the 2024 fantasy baseball season. If you're looking to make a big leap before Cruz puts the MLB on notice, your time may be running out quickly.
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