Pitchers Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 1 - Fantasy Baseball After The Draft

March 30, 2024

Nick Mariano's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers and relief pitchers before Week 1, with MLB players rostered in under 40% of leagues.

Most fantasy baseball drafts are complete, which means it is time for RotoBallers to loosen those waiver-wire muscles. This is my opportunity to provide one last preseason chance for pitching options at both starter and reliever that may have slipped through the cracks.

For our purposes, we'll examine players with fantasy potential rostered in roughly 40% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. The usual caveats apply that available options will vary according to your league size and settings.

Now, let's review the top Week 1 fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and adds for pitchers to consider after your drafts have already been completed as injury replacements or high-upside stashes.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Adds

Gavin Stone (LAD, SP) - 43% rostered - Due to injuries, Stone will open in the Dodgers’ valuable rotation after showing massive control improvements this spring. His walk rate has sat around 10% since advancing to Double-A back in 2022 but he’s only issued one free pass over 9.2 IP. If that sticks at all then his strikeouts can play up and his win potential on LA can pop.

Luis Severino (NYM, SP) - 43% rostered - Severino only mustered 90 messy innings last year, posting a 6.65 ERA (6.14 FIP) and 1.65 WHIP with a career-worst 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% K-BB mark. The latter hadn’t been below 20% since 2016, for reference. Injuries have struck Sevy after he was an ace in 2017 and ‘18, and we saw that return in ‘22 (102 IP/3.18 ERA/1.00 WHIP). He’s got a 12:1 K:BB and just nine hits allowed scattered over 14 IP. Let’s see if friendly Citi Field can give us our Sevy back.

Louie Varland (MIN, SP/RP) - 38% rostered - Minnesota’s No. 5 spot is now Varland’s with Anthony DeSclafani’s injury. Disco never should’ve been ahead of him anyway. Perhaps Varland will go back to being the 5.30 ERA SP from last year and we drop him by mid-April. But if any of the gains shown in the bullpen down the stretch hold (12 IP, 2 ER, 17:1 K:BB) then you’ll be happy you gave him a roster spot.

DL Hall (MIL, RP) - 27% rostered - Hall had been stuffed into the bullpen behind Baltimore’s depth but Milwaukee’s beleaguered rotation has room. He has a powerful arsenal but has dealt with control woes, pairing high strikeouts with high walks throughout the minors. If he can limit walks and maintain a 30% K rate then we’re cooking.

Murph today on DL Hall:

"Pitching is like playing good music. You have the 'potential' to play good music ... but the total 'show' isn't complete until you have years and years of experience.

He'll show flashes of greatness, but we can't expect him to go out and just dominate."

— Dominic Cotroneo (@Dom_Cotroneo) March 24, 2024

Max Meyer (MIA, SP) - 26% rostered - Meyer has snagged Miami’s No. 5 rotation spot after injuries to Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft missed 2020 due to the pandemic and then required Tommy John surgery in mid-2022. If he opens 2024 sitting mid-90s with the fastball and his sharp slider near 90 then we’re sitting pretty. There is also intrigue for Trevor Rogers (4%) and Ryan Weathers (2%).

Jack Flaherty (DET, SP) - 24% rostered - Flaherty is unlikely to recapture his All-Star form, but Comerica is kind to pitchers and his spring results have been promising. In 18.1 IP, Flaherty has a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a critical 26:4 K:BB. Don’t go ga-ga for 2019 to come back, but he looks much improved after back-to-back ~1.60 WHIPs. Also don't forget about Reese Olson (16%) and Casey Mize (10%).

Garrett Crochet (CHW, RP) - 18% rostered - Crochet only has 73 MLB innings but he’s Chicago’s 2024 Opening Day starter! The southpaw possesses plus whiffs thanks to a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with his plus changeup and slider. We don’t know how many innings they’ll squeeze out of him given a career-high mark of 54 IP (2021) and just 25 frames last year. But what we get might be quite glorious!

Garrett Whitlock (BOS, SP/RP) - 15% rostered - Whitlock has revamped his arsenal with, in the words of the Globe’s Pete Abraham, a “new gyro slider sweeper thing.” He entered Monday night’s appearance with a wild 23% swinging-strike rate over 15.2 IP this spring but has maintained his usual control (16:2 K:BB). I'll add that other SP/RPs of interest are Jordan Hicks (21%) and Sean Manaea (18%).

Luis Gil (NYY, SP) - 12% rostered - Gil won New York’s No. 5 starting role by shoving this spring (15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 23:6 K:BB). One wishes he had a more reliable third pitch but he does seem to have refined the changeup since last year. Fastball-slider can impress in shorter spring appearances and maybe the Yanks don’t let lineups see him a third time. But stuff this nasty can’t be ignored.

Luis Gil, who wowed rival scouts in his previous outing March 11 in Clearwater against the Phillies when he struck out 8 in 3 2/3 innings, off to a good start this afternoon against TOR with 3 K through two. "He's throwing the s*** out of the ball," said one AL scout.

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) March 16, 2024

Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, SP) - 11% rostered - Tiedemann probably won’t snag a rotation spot out of the gate with Bowden Francis pitching well this spring, but he’s a nice NA stash. The six-foot-four southpaw had 82 strikeouts in just 44 IP across four levels of play last year before a good showing in the Arizona Fall League.

Jared Jones (PIT, SP) - 8% rostered - Jones officially made the roster and is lined up to take the third slot in the rotation, potentially lining up for PIT’s home opener. The 22-year-old threw 126 IP last year and has tossed a scoreless 16.1 IP this spring. Worries remain over his ~10% walk rate, which is a common theme here, but the upside is worth a cheap look.

Spring Stuff+ leaders, min 100 pitches tracked

1) Nick Pivetta 140
2) Alex Lange
3) Grayson Rodriguez
4) Jared Jones 131
5) Luis Gil
6) Riley O'Brien
7) Ryan Pepiot
8) Chad Green
9) Beau Brieske
10) Isaiah Campbell 125

google doc updated

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) March 25, 2024

Zack Littell (TB, SP.RP) - 7% rostered - And who are you to turn your nose up at a Tampa Bay arm? Littell came to Tampa from Boston in May 2023 after bouncing around the league as the guy throwing his four-seamer 50% or more of the time. The Rays said throw more sliders and splitters, mix in a sinker and sweeper, and trust your stuff in the zone more (3.2% BB rate was half his ‘22 mark). He’s had a stellar spring (13.1 IP, 13:3 K:BB, 1.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and can provide healthy upside for the price.

Erick Fedde (CHW, SP) - 4% rostered - Fedde just won the KBO Triple Crown with 20 wins, 209 strikeouts, and a 2.00 ERA (0.95 WHIP) over 180.1 IP overseas. And we’ll now see if he can make a Merrill Kelly-esque jump upon his return to MLB. We’re sweating a minor quad injury suffered on Sunday but initial reports are that it was minor and he’ll make his first turn in the rotation.

Relief Pitcher Waiver Wire Adds

Look for Mason Miller (56%), Griffin Jax (52%), Joel Payamps (51%), Yuki Matsui (41%), and Hector Neris (40%) further up the food chain.

Kevin Ginkel (ARI, RP) - 55% rostered - Monday evening saw the D-backs announce Paul Sewald had a Grade 2 left oblique strain and would open 2024 on the IL. We likely won’t see him until May, which should elevate the entire leverage ladder up a notch. Ginkel carries the most upside as he was a top reliever from June 1 on last season, going 8-1 with four saves and seven holds alongside a 1.98 ERA (2.40 FIP). You can watch list Scott McGough, Ryan Thompson, and maybe Joe Mantiply as the lefty, but Ginkel’s the priority.

Lovullo doesn’t want to name a closer right away, but Kevin Ginkel is the most likely option to get the first crack at the job.

— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) March 25, 2024

Abner Uribe (MIL, RP) - 28% rostered - The fireballer needs to steady his command but the ceiling is an elite RP with top-flight put-away pitches. It feels like he’d need Payamps and Trevor Megill to botch the ninth to get consistent looks, but far crazier things have happened. Even with a 15.7% walk rate last year, Uribe posted a 1.17 WHIP as batters hit just .151 off of him. Walks make for slim margins and he’s not had a good spring, but he should be part of any early committee that forms with Devin Williams (back) recovering.

Robert Stephenson (LAA, RP) - 26% rostered - Stephenson remains a prime IL stash after the Halos gave him a three-year, $33 million deal to reinforce Carlos Estevez in the late frames. Investing in sore shoulders should only be done lightly, but there’s a reason his ADP started to overtake that of Estevez before the injury came out. Ron Washington backs Estevez, who has gone seven innings without a walk this spring, but a healthy Stephenson could be a top-five closer come midseason. Act accordingly.

Yimi Garcia (TOR, RP) - 20% rostered
Chad Green (TOR, RP) - 3% rostered - Garcia and Green stand to open as Toronto’s closer committee chair with news that Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will both open on the IL. Tim Mayza is also in the mix but carries a lesser upside. It isn’t much, but every bit counts.

Garcia had three saves and 19 holds last year, posting a 2.99 SIERA behind the 4.09 ERA, and had 15 saves back in 2021. He’s been hot/lucky this spring too (2.00 ERA, .095 BABIP) so he’s feeling good. But Green has the high-octane whiffs that will maximize your speculative roster spot even on days he doesn't nail down the save (and he's far more available!).

Fantasy baseball tweet: Closer by committee and matchup-based choices for #BlueJays while Romano is down.
My pecking order would be Green, Garcia, Mayza.

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) March 27, 2024

James McArthur (KC, RP) - 14% rostered - McArthur boasts more upside than William Smith, that’s for sure. He finally broke into the majors as a 26-year-old and posted a robust 2.78 FIP/2.80 xFIP/2.65 SIERA sabermetric profile underneath the 4.63 ERA. Walking only two batters in 23.1 IP will help fuel that! If you like cherry-picking, only McArthur and Jacob deGrom had a K/BB above 10 out of 550 pitchers with >20 IP in ‘23. Wasn’t that fun?

Michael Kopech (CHW, SP) - 14% rostered - Kopech is throwing triple-digit heat after being transitioned to the bullpen. Don’t go thinking he’ll be THE guy because Pedro Grifol has made it clear that he’ll throw these relievers wherever he wants. But building up Kopech’s trade value with some closing work ahead of the deadline makes sense for the 2024 White Sox. Enjoy the ride for now.

Justin Lawrence (COL, RP) - 8% rostered
Tyler Kinley (COL, RP) - 3% rostered - Kinley is battling Justin Lawrence for the closer role in Colorado and the numbers say he should be their guy. But the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders says Lawrence looks like the closer right now. On my teams, I'll be siding with Kinley's talent long-term.

Kinley’s line looks like this: 8.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, and 9 K. Not astounding but solid for spring, especially compared to Lawrence’s: 8.1 IP, 8 ER, 12 H, 4 BB, and 11 K. It was Kinley who logged saves last September and had a 0.75 ERA/1.13 WHIP (1.74 FIP) in 24 IP back in 2022. Whether you want Kinley or Lawrence, this is desperate territory.

Trevor Megill (MIL, RP) - 7% rostered - It’s astounding that Megill's rostered rate can sit so far below that of Payamps and Uribe. He was a dog in the second half, posting an electrifying 32:5 K:BB in just 20 IP after the break. He allowed only six earned runs in that span (2.70 ERA) despite a laughable .432 BABIP to dance around. See who you want to back but it’s laughable that Megill is this available relative to the others.

Brock Stewart (MIN, RP) - 5% rostered - Stewart may get a surprising amount of action in the ninth with Jhoan Duran on the shelf. The 32-year-old had a pristine 0.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 27.2 IP, posting an absurd 35.8% strikeout rate (39 Ks) that ranked 11th among 550 pitchers (min. 20 IP). (Ahem, Trevor Megill was 14th.) Griffin Jax may be used in the “high-leverage spot” wherever that comes, be it the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning. Stewart should be the next man up on the leverage ladder while Duran is down.

Don't be mad when Trevor Megill and Brock Stewart earn their respective team's first saves.

— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) March 25, 2024

Jeff Hoffman (PHI, RP) - 5% rostered - The former Rockie/Red has found a new life away from Coors/GABP and the need to work deeply as a starter. The Hoff came to Philly last season and added three ticks to his heater (94 to 97 mph) and doubled his slider rate, throwing it nearly half of the time. The slidepiece also gained ~6 mph. Peripherals backed his 2.41 ERA/0.92 WHIP and came with a 33.2% strikeout rate. He’s struck out 10 over 7.2 scoreless IP thus far in spring and could be the right-handed complement to Jose Alvarado in the eighth/ninth innings.

Jason Foley (DET, RP) - 4% rostered - A.J. Hinch has expressed dislike for the term “closer” and Alex Lange has seen his command waver as well. Don’t let Foley stray far from your sight. Shelby Miller (1%) is another name to keep an eye on here too.

Jordan Leasure (CHW, RP) - 1% rostered - Leasure came over in the Lance Lynn trade and continued flashing his stellar fastball at Triple-A alongside a healthy cutter and growing curveball. He owns a swinging-strike rate near 20% with 11 strikeouts through 9.1 IP this spring (1.93 ERA/1.08 WHIP) to earn a roster spot. Skipper Pedro Grifol has said they won’t have a closer and it’ll be a leverage-matchup game with several names in the fold, with Leasure there in the mix.

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