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Fantasy football is about matchups. Finding the right wideout who can exploit a shaky secondary, an offense that is peaking at just the right time against a reeling front, or chasing opportunities that align with the right scheme.
Of course, there is an extreme amount of luck involved in this game as well. You could have the absolute perfect matchup on paper and the player can still fall flat on their faces like Bijan Robinson last week against Carolina. It could also be the reverse situation where a player has supposed tough game ahead and explodes for 100+ yards and two scores. Sometimes you just have to throw a dart accompanied by a prayer. That is the nature of the beautiful but frustrating game we all love and hate.
Here we will break down some playoff matchups to target and the ones to stay away from to keep you informed on your quest to reach fantasy glory. To all teams competing this week, good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor. Note: All matchup rankings are as of 12/21/23, and all positional rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (QB10) Houston Texans
- Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans (17th)
Stroud was No. 4 in fantasy points per game at the quarterback position with 19.91, above names like Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. The No. 4 overall pick was also leading the entire NFL in yards through 14 weeks after missing the past game with a concussion. He's only eighth in touchdowns, but tied for first in fewest interceptions thrown with five (minimum 10 games started). Stroud is fifth in passer rating, third in pass yards per attempt, and first in 300 yard games with six, two away from tying Justin Herbert's 2020 record of eight.
It looks the rookie phenom is headed toward missing a second consecutive game due to a concussion, so make sure to keep him out in Week 16 if he can't go. However, that Week 17th matchup against a reeling Tennessee Titans defense is awfully enticing if he's back, especially if Nico Collins (calf) can join him on the field.
Mike Vrabel's defense has been solid at stopping the run for the most part, but their secondary gets routinely gashed on a weekly basis. Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew both put up huge games against them in recent weeks, combining for over 570 passing yards and six touchdowns. Both quarterbacks also had multiple long completions, something Tennessee has really struggled with this season, while Stroud leads the NFL in attempts that travel 20+ yards. The loss of Tank Dell really hurts that field-stretching ability, but Collins and Noah Brown have proved they are more than capable. With the Texans also still fighting for the division, Stroud should put up numbers in Week 17 if he's healthy.
Russell Wilson (QB13) - Denver Broncos
- Week 16 vs. New England Patriots (7th)
- Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (29th)
Last season was an utter disaster for Russ and the Broncos franchise, but Sean Payton has really turned things around in Denver after a rocky start to 2023. The Broncos are 5-2 in their last seven, due in part to the efficient quarterbacking from Wilson, but their defense has also stepped up in a major way. That unit went from allowing a league-high 36.2 points through their first five games -- highlighted by the historic 70 point waxing from Miami -- to 19 points on average over their last eight.
Russ is second in the league in touchdown rate, which has helped him earn a respectable QB13 position on the year thus far. Last week against the Lions was surprisingly a struggle for the Broncos offense, but Wilson was still able to help managers with 17.5 points on the back of a rushing touchdown.
This upcoming Patriots matchup in Week 16 doesn't look great on paper, but New England is a team squarely in the running for the No. 1 pick next spring. This team isn't playing for anything and find themselves almost a touchdown underdog on the road.. With the Broncos still fighting tooth and nail to grab that AFC Wild Card spot, I expect Russ to put up viable fantasy numbers in that game. If you are able to survive until the fantasy championship, the crown jewel sits in Week 17 when the Chargers come to the Mile City City. That defense that just gave up 63 points to Aidan O'Connell (four touchdowns, 0 INTs) and the Josh Jacobs-less Raiders. Just a friendly reminder that this same Raiders offense was blanked by the Minnesota Vikings only a week prior. Russ is a top-10 play for Week 17 with upside.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (QB8) - Washington Commanders
- Week 16 at New York Jets (2nd)
- Week 17 at San Francisco (5th)
If you've ridden Howell for most of the season, chances are you made the playoffs. Howell has been one of fantasy's biggest surprises at the quarterback position in 2023, outperforming his ADP by 17 positional spots thus far. He is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,466) and first in attempts. Translation: Howell is a certified gunslinger, but that doesn't come without mistakes.
The problem is that the he also leads the league in picks with 15, and is on pace to be the most sacked quarterback in NFL history. Sound like someone else? His projected stats through the end of the season remind me of Jameis Winston back in his Tampa Bay days.
I hope you made the wise decision to sit the North Carolina product last week, as he had a disastrous 8.2 point performance on only 101 passing yards against the Los Angeles Rams. Howell was benched in the fourth quarter for Jacoby Brissett, who almost led a miraculous comeback. Brissett ended that game with 124 passing yards and two scores despite playing TWO drives. The same could happen again in these next two matchups, one of which features the No. 1 secondary in the NFL in the New York Jets.
Howell has only two touchdown passes in his last four games, scoring under 20 in each. He has the toughest quarterback schedule for these next two weeks, which means you should definitely consider other options at the quarterback position for the playoff home stretch this year.
Jordan Love (QB7) - Green Bay Packers
- Week 16 at Carolina Panthers (1st)
- Week 17 at Minnesota Vikings (18th)
Everyone was so ready to write off Love after his Week 5 dud against Las Vegas where he threw three picks and zero touchdowns. Up to that point, Love had actually been sneaky good in fantasy, hitting the 20-point mark over the first three games of the season. A lot of advanced metrics deemed his play as unsustainable, with his ridiculously high touchdown rate and low completion percentage that was doomed to bottom out at some point. Well, it did in the aforementioned game vs. the Raiders.
The former 2020 first round pick has really found his rhythm of late, throwing for 272 yards per game over his past five, including a 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Love has been a great fantasy asset with three top-ten finishes in those past five games.
This playoff schedule on paper is not the toughest, but with Carolina one of the easiest teams in the league to run on and Minnesota completely turning around their defense over the second half of the year, Love could definitely see a decline in the two most important weeks of the year. He performed well in Week 15 vs. the pass funnel that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary, but proceed with caution in the remaining contests.
Quarterback Sleeper
Gardner Minshew (QB21) - Indianapolis Colts
- Week 16 at Atlanta Falcons (20th)
- Week 17 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (10th)
This Colts team has been one of the more impressive stories in the NFL this season. Indianapolis has a borderline bottom-five defense in the league, have been playing with a backup quarterback since Week 3, and currently occupy the seven seed in the AFC with an 8-6 record. Minshew hasn't played great, with only one top-10 QB week to his name and three finishes outside the top 20, but his schedule opens up quite a bit.
Colts home games have averaged over 52 points, the highest in the NFL. Overs are 6-1 on the season in Lucas Oil Stadium. Last week against the No. 7 defense vs. QBs, Minshew put up over 200 yards and three scores, leading to a QB6 finish on the week. I like Minshew as a fine streamer in the playoffs if you were one of the teams that unfortunately had your QB1 go down this season. I would play him over Howell in Weeks 16-17.
Deep Quarterback Sleeper (2QB Leagues)
Will Levis & Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans
- Week 16 @ Seattle Seahawks (22nd)
- Week 17 vs. Houston Texans (24th)
Levis unfortunately suffered a sprained ankle in the Week 15 loss to Houston and has not practiced yet this week. It is currently unknown if he will be good to go, but head coach Mike Vrabel has said if that is the case, then veteran Ryan Tannehill will draw the start.
Aside from the 27 point explosion in his first ever NFL start vs. the Falcons back in Week 8, Levis has been a near-disaster for fantasy. Zero games over 13 fantasy points, and three under 10. It would be foolish to put all the blame on Levis though, with how sad of a football team the Titans have become. They are one of the worst pass-blocking teams in the NFL -- 31st according to PFF -- and have allowed the fifth-most sacks (50).
However, the rookie from Kentucky has tremendous arm talent and has showed numerous flashes throughout his seven starts. With a ineffective Derrick Henry and now zero hope to make the playoffs, offensive coordinator Tim Kelly may let Levis throw down field more and see what he's really got under center in these remaining few games. Whether it's Levis or Tannehill out there, both will likely need to throw the ball quite a bit against two these teams fighting for their playoff lives that also have vulnerable secondaries. Either could provide some assistance in 2QB leagues.
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (RB18) - Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 16 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (22nd)
- Week 17 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (18th)
Pacheco has missed the past two games due to a shoulder injury, but head coach Andy Reid has already said that his RB1 is expected to return in Week 16. What a great time to do it.
The Chiefs have struggled with their pass-catchers this year, leading the league in drops. This unfortunate situation appears to have aided the value of Pacheco, as head coach Andy Reid has chosen to rely on the dynamic runner much more this season. Kansas City's lead back has been a workhorse, ranking No. 8 in touches among running backs and fifth in rushing yards through the first thirteen weeks before his injury. The seventh-round pick has received double digit carries in every game but two, giving fantasy managers a very nice floor to work with.
His matchup schedule also looks great from here on out, with two bottom-tier rush defenses on tap in the waning two weeks. If the reports are true and Pacheco is fully back, start him with confidence through the rest of the year.
Kyren Williams (RB6) - Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16 at New Orleans Saints (9th)
- Week 17 at New York Giants (23rd)
It's between Williams or his teammate Puka Nacua for waiver wire pickup of the year. Most would probably lean Puka given some of the rookie records he's broken and the fact that Kyren was drafted in a handful of leagues, but either way both have been fantasy studs this season. The fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame back in 2022 is the RB6 on the year, and that includes four games missed during an IR stint. That is absolutely comical. We've seen McCaffrey-level production from the youngster, and there's no reason to believe it will slow down.
Williams has five top-five RB weekly finishes out of nine games played. It's just been absurd what he has been able to do this season, especially given the injury and essentially zero drop in production. Even against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 -- who rank second among the running back position -- Williams still managed 114 yards and 4.5 YPC.
One of the more underrated tandems in fantasy football is Sean McVay and whoever is starting at running back for the Rams. I'll bet Williams will be one of, if not the most, common player on championship rosters when it's all said and done.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (RB22) & Zach Charbonnet (RB43) - Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16 at Tennessee Titans (16th)
- Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (21st)
Walker missed Weeks 12 & 13 due to oblique injury sustained in the loss to the Rams, but ended up playing last week and looked as good as he has all season against the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL. 86 yards gained on 19 attempts and a score, Walker also added three-for-26 through the air. Hand up, this result shocked me.
Rookie Zach Charbonnet had been stealing snaps from Walker leading up to the injury and looked great as a feature back against Dallas, but reverted to his change-of-pace role last week. He doesn't appear to be on most fantasy radars moving forward this year.
The schedule for both of these backs isn't terrible. The Titans boast a formidable but inconsistent run defense, although it has been better at home. Pittsburgh doesn't scare you either really, but if that team is also fighting for a playoff spot and is able to get some guys back on defense, I wouldn't have supreme confidence in starting Walker. He is a fine play, especially based on the usage last week, but temper expectations a bit.
James Conner (RB32) - Arizona Cardinals
- Week 16 at Chicago Bears (20th)
- Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles (2nd)
Conner wasn't meant to provide much of a ceiling for fantasy managers this year. The reason behind drafting him was the expected high volume. Who else was going to get the ball in this Cardinals offense besides him and Marquise Brown? We haven't necessarily seen that narrative play out, but Conner's season was also derailed due to a knee injury sustained in Week 5 which landed him on IR.
Since returning in Week 10, the former Steeler has received a usual workload but hadn't been able to produce for fantasy managers until these past two weeks. Conner has scored 38.9 combined points en route to RB5 and RB11 finishes, but the road does not get any easier from here on out. Bears have been a top-10 rushing defense in the NFL over the second half of the year, ranking second league-wide in yards per carry with 3.4 allowed, and Philly has been a juggernaut all year in defending the run.
Running Back Sleeper
Ezekiel Elliott (RB34) - New England Patriots
- Week 16 at Denver Broncos (31st)
- Week 17 at Buffalo Bills (19th)
The Patriots offense is a borderline insult to football. This team managed to lose three straight games when they held their opponents to 10 points or fewer. How far the mighty have fallen. The days of Brady to Moss, Welker, and Gronk are long gone. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe have combined for the 27th-ranked passing attack in the league, as well as a second-worst TD to interception ratio through Week 13 (10:14).
However, fantasy football is all about opportunity. Players can still provide value no matter how atrocious the offense may look, and that is exactly the scenario that Elliott finds himself in now. RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 13 which gave Elliot the keys to the backfield. The very next week he received the most opportunities he's had in over four years with 22 attempts and eight targets, turning this into 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown that made him the top weekly scorer at the position. Last week against a tougher matchup vs. KC, Elliot was held to only 25 rushing yards on 11 attempts, but still hauled in five passes. If Stevenson is continues to sit, Zeke is a great play given his schedule and usage.
Running Back Deep Sleeper
Ty Chandler (RB61) - Minnesota Vikings
- Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions (1st)
- Week 17 vs. Green Bay Packers (24th)
I'm not sure Chandler qualifies as a "deep sleeper" anymore given what he's done, but I'm keeping him in here since I tabbed him as such three weeks ago and it's paid off. Chandler's opportunities had gone down from weeks 10-12, but with starter Alexander Mattison missing last week with an ankle injury, Chandler busted out for 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on a career high 27 opportunities. He became the first Vikings player to top 100 rushing yards this entire season. I hope managers listened and stashed him after his down game vs. Chicago, because if Mattison sits again (not spotted at practice on Wednesday) Chandler remains a fine flex play even against the Lions stout rush defense. Head coach Kevin O'Connell also recently said if Mattison is back, Chandler will still have a significant role in the offense. Keep feeding him!
Easier Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (WR2) & Brandin Cooks (WR42) - Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16 at Miami Dolphins (16th)
- Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions (25th)
The Cowboys' schedule is not easy for real-life football, but it is the most fantasy friendly remaining slate in the sport. Both of these games should be uber-competitive, high scoring affairs. In Lamb's case, there may not be another WR in fantasy I would rather have for the rest of the playoffs, and that includes Tyreek Hill.
While last week was a meltdown for this Cowboys offense, quarterback Dak Prescott had been shredding his cupcake schedule and Lamb has been the primary benefactor. Even with poor result, Lamb still caught seven passes and was able to get in the end zone. The former Oklahoma star has been lighting up the league since Week 6, scoring over 30 more points than the next closest wideout. If you have Lamb, just kick back and thank the fantasy gods. If you are playing against him in any of the next two weeks, all I can say is pray.
Cooks started off the year horribly, only posting 65 yards through his first five games, which equated to WR99! The Cowboys' defense was beating up on bad teams, and in the couple tough games they played he was a non-factor. Dallas figured some things out on offense after that Week 5 mark, as Cooks has posted five top-25 weeks and is the WR24 since Week 6. He has had quite the roller coaster year in Dallas. Big veteran free-agent signing to mere afterthought to a solid WR3 / flex option. Keep letting him Cook(s).
Brandon Aiyuk (WR13) & Deebo Samuel (WR22) - San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (2nd)
- Week 17 at Washington Commanders (31st)
I know a lot of people won't want to hear this, but this is the best WR tandem in the league. Aiyuk has blossomed into an every week game-breaker in his fourth NFL season. The former first-round pick leads the league in average yards per reception at 18.5 (minimum 50 catches) and is third in 20+ yard catches with 23. Aiyuk's average depth of target (aDOT) is a healthy 14.3, which ranks 13th, and he also has commanded 40.2% of the 49ers' air yards -- eighth in the league. Aiyuk was the odd man out last week with McCaffrey and Deebo stealing all of the touchdowns, but he may outright win people championships Week 17 in Washington. Do NOT count him out because of that performance.
Deebo was out for two games dealing with a shoulder injury from weeks 7-8, but has been a menace ever since returning with five consecutive top-10 WR finishes. The dynamic playmaker is the WR1 in that span, beating out the aforementioned Lamb by four points in half-point PPR scoring. It's usually hard to predict who is going to have the boom game each week for this high-powered offense, but lately Samuel has been booming every outing. The Ravens present a different kind of challenge on Christmas, but San Fran will likely need contributions from all of their play makers to come away with a victory. Both of these ultra-talented receivers should lead teams to fantasy championship victories.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley (WR28) & Zay Jones (WR82) - Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29th)
- Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers (4th)
The viability of these receivers depend on the health of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is currently in the concussion protocol. Early reports are optimistic, which changes the outlook for Ridley and Jones considerably. The signal caller just can't seem to catch a break, also suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 13, which miraculously did not hold him out of any games.
Slot wideout and leading receiver Christian Kirk also exited that same game with a core injury and is done for the season. That has led to way more passes being thrown in Ridley and Jones' direction, but that hasn't meant fantasy success. The former Falcon was 21st in targets through weeks 1-12, but over the past two games with Kirk out he is fourth in the league with 33 total targets. Jones is also among the highest targeted players in that time span with 30. However, during this stretch the two rank 49th and 35th in points among WRs, respectively.
The matchup against Tampa Bay could not be better. The Bucs have a bottom-five pass defense in the league, giving up an average of 24.3 points per game to wide receivers. If Lawrence is able to go, Ridley and Jones actually make for solid plays in Week 16 but the worry comes in the fantasy championship against Carolina. With how susceptible the Panthers are on the ground (30th), opposing wideouts have not had great games against this defense. Add in a hobbled Lawrence or maybe even C.J. Beathard and there is definite risk playing both of these WRs the rest of the fantasy playoffs.
Note: Zay Jones did not practice on Thursday and is questionable for the upcoming game against Tampa Bay. If he is out, Ridley should get a slight boost in value.
Davante Adams (WR14) & Jakobi Meyers (WR25) - Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions (7th)
- Week 17 vs. Indianapolis Colts (11th)
If you have Adams, odds are you're playing him unless you have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position. He's one of the hardest players in fantasy to keep on the pine given his ridiculous prolonged success. After starting off where many expected as the WR6 through four weeks, the Raiders then ran into some QB troubles two games later which led to the benching of Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Aidan O'Connell grabbing the starting job. Adams has been the WR29 since that point.
Last week against the Chargers, Adams had his best game since Week 3, posting 101 yards and a score on eight catches. The touchdown was actually thrown to him by fellow wideout Jakobi Meyers on a trick play, but regardless the veteran still received twelve targets and showed a solid rapport with O'Connell.
Meyers had a similarly hot start to the year, ranking as the WR12 in PPR scoring through the first seven games but was then bitten by the inconsistency bug. He was still able to score last week, but that was against maybe the worst defense in football. The fantasy semis bring a matchup with the Chiefs on the road, who present one of the toughest tests for opposing wideouts. Both were able to have solid fantasy performances against the Chiefs at home back in Week 12, but managers should not expect similar results in this one. If you are able to survive into Week 17, the Colts have surprisingly been good at stopping receivers. This does appear to be a similar situation to Carolina where teams will just run down the ball down their throats but even so, I don't feel super confident with either guy in these games.
Wide Receiver Playoff Sleeper
Joshua Palmer (WR62) - Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills (10th)
- Week 17 at Denver Broncos (9th)
I had Palmer in here before the Herbert injury and decided to keep him in given what he was able to do last week with backup Easton Stick. The former third-round pick has missed six games this due for a knee injury sustained against Chicago, but returned last week in a major way. Palmer caught four passes on as many targets for 113 yards and a score. His 75 yard touchdown catch did come on a blown coverage which is not going to happen every week, but Palmer will still likely operate as the top pass-catching option for this Los Angeles team that is going to be in very negative game scripts vs. the Bills and Broncos.
WR Quentin Johnston was on pace for one of the worst rookie WR seasons in recent memory, with only 190 in the his first 11 games. The TCU product has been able to turn around his season slightly, with 166 yards over the past three weeks, but he is still a long way from being a reliable option.
Prior to his injury, Palmer was doing an admirable job as the WR2 in Los Angeles. He peaked when dropping 133 yards against Chiefs corner L'Jarius Snead, who has been one of the best cover guys in football this season. He doesn't have an easy path, but with the dire need for reliable pass-catchers and the Chargers likely being down big, he could be fantasy relevant over these last two weeks.
Wide Receiver Playoff Deep Sleeper
Michael Wilson (WR67) - Arizona Cardinals
- Week 16 at Chicago Bears (17th)
- Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles (32nd)
Mostly a forgotten name amongst rookie wideouts, Wilson has flashed immense potential during his first pro season. He is #1 among first-year WRs in yards per reception with 15.5 (minimum 25 catches), 13th in receiving yards, and one of eight rookies to post a top-10 WR finish. Wilson missed three games from weeks 11-13 with a nagging shoulder issue, but was able to get healthy during the bye and return against San Francisco. Unfortunately Wilson was only targeted three times and did not catch a pass.
The reason for optimism here is the matchups and opportunity. Top wideout Marquise Brown left last week's game early after tweaking his heel injury yet again. He has not practiced all week and is trending toward a DNP unless he can get some work in on Friday.
That opens the door for Wilson who is the most dynamic wideout left on the roster. With Brown out, the rookie should step into that X receiver role and see more targets come his way during this last stretch. Two welcoming matchups are on tap, with the Bears having just surrendering 374 yards to Joe Flacco and the Eagles about to break records for receiving yards allowed. Wilson could be a sneaky deep-league play, especially in Week 17 if he can build some momentum heading into the fantasy championship.
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta (TE1) - Detroit Lions
- Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings (13th)
- Week 17 at Dallas Cowboys (16th)
The jury is out. Sam LaPorta is the best rookie tight end in NFL history. How Iowa keeps pumping out All-Pro level tight ends while having one of the worst offenses in the FBS is one of the great mysteries of our time.
LaPorta ranks third among all rookies in receiving yards, regardless of position. He leads all tight ends in touchdowns scored with nine, is fifth in points per target, and fourth in receptions (64). The 2023 second-rounder is on pace to break the all-time record for receptions in a season for rookie tight ends, and could easily challenge for the yards record as well. His monster three-touchdown effort last week against Denver rocketed him to the top scoring tight end on the season. LaPorta is what people hoped Kyle Pitts would be his rookie year. Kudos to anyone who took a draft flier on him or scooped him off waivers.
The schedule hasn't been all that difficult for LaPorta, and it will remain at an even level throughout the playoffs. Both of the remaining games are on the road which isn't ideal, but LaPorta is virtually matchup-proof at this point. Lock him in and don't look back.
Jake Ferguson (TE8) - Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16 at Miami Dolphins (14th)
- Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions (23rd)
Ferguson has been a LaPorta-lite this season in the fact that he was a late draft flier/early waiver pickup that has vastly outproduced his expectations. The Cowboys have more weapons on offense, so Ferguson has been the first read less often than LaPorta, but where he has really shined is the red zone. The 24-year-old ranks second in the NFL only behind his teammate CeeDee lamb in red zone targets with 22, and tied for third in red zone touchdowns (five).
The Cowboys clearly think Ferguson has a matchup advantage within the opposing 20, and have been forcing the ball to their young tight end. These kind of targets are the most valuable in fantasy football, and the fact that Ferguson has sustained this level of attention and trust from quarterback Dak Prescott is a great sign, especially for his dynasty outlook. With the Dolphins and Lions on tap the rest of the way -- all games that will likely be shootouts -- Ferguson should continue to receive plenty of looks. Keeping riding him throughout these crucial weeks.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid (TE13) - Buffalo Bills
- Week 16 at Los Angeles Chargers (24th)
- Week 17 vs. New England Patriots (3rd)
Kincaid's play has been overshadowed by the aforementioned LaPorta, but the first rounder out of Utah has been a very solid fantasy asset for much of the season. If you've been following Kincaid, you know much of this can be attributed to the increased opportunity he received once fellow tight end Dawson Knox was placed on IR in Week 5. Before this, Kincaid was averaging 59.2% of snaps and four of five games he finished outside the top 20 TEs. After Knox went down, this number ballooned to 73%, and led to Kincaid earning top-11 weekly finishes in five out of the next six games.
Knox has played the last two games after returning from IR and Kincaid has already experienced a major drop off in production and snaps. He is no longer a must-start at tight-end given the shared role with Knox, as well as the Bills surprising commitment to running the ball since Joe Brady took over OC duties. The Chargers are on deck and give up a lot of fantasy points to every position, but even with the inviting matchup Kincaid remains a shaky play. I would even play Hunter Henry over the rookie this week if he's healthy.
Cole Kmet (TE7) - Chicago Bears
- Week 16 at Arizona (4th)
- Week 17 vs. Atlanta (25th)
Kmet signed a new $50 million contract this offseason that received quite a bit of criticism, but he has lived up to the bag so far in 2023. Even with starting quarterback Justin Fields missing four and a half games with a thumb injury, the former Notre Dame star was a reliable target for backup Tyson Bagent. He has seven top-10 weekly finishes, and ranks second among tight ends with six touchdown catches. Kmet's yards per reception are down, but he already broke his career high in catches back in Week 14.
Fields is now back to full strength, but it's unfortunate that the schedule tightens up down the stretch for Kmet. Arizona is fantasy gold for most options at other positions, but have actually been solid at limiting opposing TEs.
The fantasy championship brings a good matchup in the Atlanta Falcons, but making it through Arizona may be tougher than expected. This is the hardest position in fantasy to nail down. It's unlikely you have a better option on waivers than Kmet, who is the TE7, but you may want to at least ponder some other options.
Tight End Playoff Sleeper
Gerald Everett (TE21) - Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills (9th)
- Week 17 at Denver Broncos (32nd)
I know, I know. Another year with Gerald Everett as one of the top TE sleepers. I'm sick of it, too. But hey, someone needs to catch more passes for the Chargers and we know Quentin Johnston isn't the guy. That is why I have Joshua Palmer and Everett in the sleeper categories. Both players that are likely on waivers and could be important additions if you are desperate.
The veteran tight end has been banged up for portions of the year, but finally seems back to full strength over the past four weeks. In those games, he's hit 39+ yards while seeing an average of six targets per game. His snap percentages have also looked good as far as streaming tight ends go, hitting at least 63% in this time span. The Bills are one of the better defenses in limiting opposing tight-ends, but with how bad Johnston and Ekeler have been, it's not that far-fetched for Everett to take over as the second pass-catching option for this team that will very likely be down double digits in these remaining games.
Check out our other article about the best/worst fantasy football playoff schedules written by Andrew Ball!
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