Week 12 NFL DFS Prop Picks (Late Slate) - Over/Under Prop Picks on Sleeper.com

November 25, 2023

Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Late Slate (November 26, 2023). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Sunday Late Slate. Last week’s picks for this slate finished 2-4, bringing our season record to 26-22. 

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday late slate on Sleeper DFS.

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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 12 Sunday Late Slate

Dorian Thompson-Robinson OVER 174.5 Passing Yards

Thompson-Robinson is the Browns starting QB moving forward with Deshaun Watson out for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. While DTR has yet to top 175 passing yards in his two starts, he has a great opportunity to do just that this week against a Broncos defense that has given up 177 passing yards or more in every single game this season.

Denver ranks as the 13th easiest matchup for QBs this week according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule tool, most recently surrendering 221 passing yards to Joshua Dobbs last week. DTR has another full week of practice with the starters under his belt and is beginning to show rapport with top receiving options Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Look for him to have his best game as a pro this Sunday.

Kyler Murray UNDER 6.5 Rushes

Murray has looked great in two starts since returning from a torn ACL last season, averaging 231.5 passing yards and 42 rushing yards per game so far. The Cardinals have a winnable matchup with the Rams on Sunday as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied point total of 21.5.

PFF projects a 77.1% likelihood of this prop going under. The Rams have a strong front seven who have allowed an average of 6.3 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks over their last four games. 

With a predominantly zone-based scheme that will have defenders keeping their eyes on the quarterback, the Rams should be able to keep Murray in the pocket more often. Consider tailing Murray’s passing props while fading his rushing attempts this week.

Hunter Renfrow UNDER 2.5 Receptions

Renfrow has been largely disappointing this year with the Raiders but has an inflated prop this week after finishing Week 11 with his best stat line of the year (five catches for 42 yards). Renfrow had yet to top two catches in a game all season until last week. 

Renfrow and the Raiders face off against the Chiefs and their impressive defense on Sunday who rank 4th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Renfrow has the third-worst PFF matchup grade of any receiver this week against the Chiefs secondary (7.9 out of 100). The Chiefs play predominantly man coverage on defense which Renfrow has particularly struggled against this season, only mustering a 5.3% target share against man (compared to 15.7% against zone). 

Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with the under, giving it a 10.2% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 2.0 receptions. Take advantage of a high prop for Renfrow this week by fading him.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

Other Recommendations:

• Skyy Moore OVER 15.5 rushing and receiving yards
• Gabe Davis UNDER 2.5 receptions
• Dustin Hopkins OVER 1.5 field goals made

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