RADIO
Welcome to the first installment of my Fantasy Matchmaker for Defenses (DST) article series. In today’s fantasy football world, the Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) starting roster spot is slowly becoming less common. Some prefer to replace that spot with another WR or flex. Half the leagues I am in do not have a DST.
Some see the DST position (and kicker) as too volatile and unpredictable for the potential impact they can have on a fantasy football matchup. Some just want to start more RBs and WRs. And I get it -- those leagues are fun. But much like the redraft, one-QB, half-PPR home league I’ve been in since 2006, there will always be a special place in my heart for the DST position.
I enjoy the process. Results are cool and all -- but I enjoy the analysis, the hunt, across all fantasy skill positions. I enjoy looking for that next fantasy football sleeper, and trying to be one week early on an upcoming waiver darling. These endeavors are a big part of the fun I have participating in fantasy football. And since my beginning, that has included the DST position. I am a DST streamer. Always have been and always will be. I intentionally turn streaming DSTs into a jigsaw puzzle that I find fun and exciting. Don’t worry, I fully accepted and leaned into my existence as a huge fantasy football nerd long ago.
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D/ST Strength Of Schedule Overview
In this weekly series, I will be presenting my fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) for D/ST matchups.
I have been tweaking and adjusting my process for determining DST matchup strength over the last two years. My goal with this is to help all of you DST streamers out there by presenting the data and discussing my strategy and decision-making process.
There are different types of DST streaming targets every week as the NFL schedule plays out and new information becomes available. The structure of this article will start with presenting some relevant team defense statistics, such as turnover rate and points allowed, to be used for reference.
I will then show each DST/team’s schedule for the next four weeks, with each opponent’s matchup strength based on adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This is what I’ll use to make my weekly DST streamer calls.
Each article will end with the rest of season (ROS) schedule for each DST showing the same opponent matchup strength, including the projected SOS for each DST during the fantasy playoffs.
Week 4 Team Defense Statistics
Like any other fantasy skill position, there are two opposing forces at play. We need to look at the strength of the fantasy player (DST in this case) as well as the strength of the opponent versus the DST position. It’s just a little more nuanced with DSTs. With a position like WR, generally speaking, we look at the WR and how his opponent has done against WRs.
With DST, we look at the team’s defense and how their opponent has done against DSTs, or how good their offense has been. This first section takes a look at the latter, looking at team defense statistics that are relevant (both directly and indirectly) to how DST points are scored.
The chart below shows the following team defense statistics:
- Points Per Game (PPG) Allowed (regular NFL points, not fantasy points)
- Interception (INT) Rate (INT per pass attempt)
- Pressure Rate (QB pressures per dropback)
- QB Pressure: When a QB is hurried, knocked down, and/or sacked
- Total Sacks
- Turnover Rate (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover)
*Team defense stats taken from Pro Football Reference.
This chart is arranged in alphabetical order, making it easier to see each team’s position across each statistic. The darker the green shading, the stronger that defense is in that metric.
Here is the same data arranged from highest to lowest.
This data does not factor into matchup strength. Instead, I use it for a couple of reasons. It helps provide context for the weekly RotoBaller DST ranks that will be used. And, more importantly, the team data can be crucial when faced with the common “bad defense in a good matchup” conundrum.
There won’t necessarily be much to glean from this data by itself every week. The upper-tier defenses will be at the top of these categories. These are the DSTs that don’t warrant much discussion in this series because they are highly rostered and typically are not streaming options. But I will point out noteworthy nuggets when they appear. Through three weeks, what stands out with this data is that the Falcons are Top 10 in three of the five statistics. The two stats for which they are outside the Top 10 are total sacks and turnover rate, which are both directly related to DST scoring. This is why they currently sit at DST24 on the season in PPG. But sacks and turnovers are less sticky than pressure rate and PPG allowed, similar to TDs being less sticky than target share for WRs. The Falcons are an under-the-radar, underrated DST that will likely be discussed again in this series, perhaps even later in this article.
DST Strength of Schedule Process
In determining SOS and matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the league average and how it compares to the opponent's average DST PPG.
For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only one PPG. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (PAOA) is negative seven. Team B’s PAOA is plus four. I assign a weight to PAOA which is factored into the overall rank.
The DST scoring system I base my process on is the standard ESPN DST scoring settings.
There are different types of streamer targets I will discuss. It’s similar to a workplace.
- “Temporary” Streamer: DST you are picking up to start for only that week.
- “Part-Time” Streamer: Available DST with multiple good matchups in a row.
- “Recruit” Streamer: Available DST with a good upcoming schedule that you pick up a week early. In general, I don’t advise rostering two DSTs. But there are times if you have an open roster spot when it makes sense to preemptively grab next week’s streamer. Typically you would do this for what would likely be a sought-after streamer, so you don’t have to use a waiver claim or FAAB.
“Fool’s Gold” Streamer: A bad defense in a good matchup where the bad will outweigh the good. Do not start.
DST Strength of Schedule: Weeks 4-7
The following chart shows the four-week look-ahead schedule for each DST, with each opponent color-coded based on matchup strength.
The chart is sorted by left-most column, which is RotoBaller’s Week 4 DST rankings. The next column is crucial for the effectiveness of the advice. It shows the ESPN rostership percentage for each DST. The shading in this column is greener for lower rostership. I want the lower-rostered teams to stand out because that is the DST streamer player pool. It also helps spotlight lower-rostered DSTs that are ranked higher for that week (like the Broncos, more on them later). The right-most columns show my current numbered ranks for each team in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This allowed you to see the numbered rank that is represented by the color-coding in the Weeks 4-7 opponents.
The following are my Week 4 DST streamers in no particular order.
Week 4 DST Streamers
Baltimore Ravens (Part-Time Streamer)
The Ravens are borderline for this discussion as I typically stay below 50% rostership, but I was surprised to see them at only 54.5%. RotoBaller has the Ravens ranked as the DST6 for the week. The Ravens are eighth in PPG allowed (18.3) and tied for third with 11 sacks on the season. They haven’t generated a lot of turnovers or QB pressure which is why they are not in the upper regions of DST PPG. Currently tied with the Patriots at DST19, the Ravens have a good stretch of games over the next three weeks against the Browns (23rd), the Steelers (18th), and the Titans (30th).
Cincinnati Bengals (Borderline Part-Time Streamer)
The Bengals are a decent streamer in Week 4 with a RotoBaller rank of DST10 and a readily available 26.5% rostership. They face the third-best DST matchup in the Titans. The Titans are second in the NFL in sack rate allowed (13.5%) and total sacks allowed (13) and have averaged one interception per game so far. I prefer my DST streamer to be playing at home for the added crowd noise while the primary enemy of the DST is on the field, but a road game is not a deal breaker. The Bengals are one of the better streaming options in Week 4, and the reason I have them as a “borderline” Part-Time Streamer is due to their Week 5 matchup with the Cardinals. The Cardinals have been surprisingly tough on opposing DSTs with a current rank as the 13th-toughest matchup, but the Bengals should be a highly-ranked DST again next week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Temporary Streamer)
The Buccaneers have been another underrated defense so far in 2023. Regarding the team defense statistics, they are 11th in PPG allowed (19.7), third in Interception Rate (4.55%), 13th in Pressure Rate, tied for fifth in total sacks, and only behind the Bills in Turnover Rate (23.3%). Currently the DST6 in PPG (10.7), it is surprising their rostership is only at 23.8%. Ranked as the DST11 for Week 4 by RotoBaller, the Buccaneers face the 19th-ranked Saints in Week 4. And that rank only includes a partial game from Jameis Winston. This is another road game, but the Buccaneers should be able to generate a few turnovers with Winston under center, and a defensive score is not out of the question for this squad. With a bye in Week 5 and the Lions in Week 6, this is a one-week streaming option (for now).
Atlanta Falcons (Potential Part-Time Streamer)
The Falcons are more of a dark horse option this week as they are ranked as the DST25 by RotoBaller for Week 4. But they are widely available with (3.4% rostership) and face the fourth-best DST matchup in the Jaguars. I discussed above how the Falcons do stand out within the team defense statistics being Top 10 in PPG allowed, Interception Rate, and Pressure Rate. They just haven’t finished with that high Pressure Rate as they only have three total sacks so far. Trevor Lawrence does have a knack for turning the ball over when under pressure and the Falcons are a sleeper-streamer in Week 4. The low rostership and low DST rank cannot just be ignored, so this is a risky play, and why I am calling them a potential Part-Time Streamer. If all goes well in Week 4, their next two matchups are against the Texans (21st) and Commanders (27th) with both games at home.
Recruit Streamers
As a reminder, these are DSTs you would not start in Week 4, but have good matchups in Week 5, so you might consider a one-week stash if your roster allows that freedom.
- Washington Commanders (22.6% rostership): Week 5 versus the 32nd-ranked Bears.
- Indianapolis Colts (4.9% rostership): Week 5 versus the 30th-ranked Titans.
- Green Bay Packers (40.5% rostership): Week 5 versus the 28th-ranked Raiders.
- Detroit Lions (4.0% rostership): Week 5 versus the 26th-ranked Panthers.
Relatively speaking, this is not a strong week for Recruit Streamers, as you should be able to get most of these options for free next week, but it is something to consider and shows you my process with this type of streamer.
Week 4 Fool’s Gold Streamers
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are ranked as the DST7 in Week 4 against the best matchup for DSTs, the Bears. Add to that a Week 5 matchup with the Jets (second-best DST matchup) and I understand the appeal of scooping up the Broncos at only 6.3% rostership for the next two weeks. I am advising against that. On paper (or more accurately, on computer screen), they fit the optics of a perfect streamer. Low rostership (so widely available) and two consecutive bright green matchups. But the Broncos defense is simply terrible. Here is where they rank in the team defense statistics:
- PPG Allowed: 32nd (40.7; yes that is skewed by the 70-burger allowed to the Dolphins, but it was near the bottom before that game)
- Interception Rate: 21st (1.08%)
- Pressure Rate: 32nd (10.8%)
- Total Sacks: 29th (four)
- Turnover Rate: 30th (3.1%)
Leave the Broncos DST on the waiver wire for your league mates.
Rest of Season DST Rankings: Strength of Schedule
I don’t rely too much on the later-season schedule SOS because things change rapidly in the NFL and I am not stashing a DST now for the Fantasy Playoffs that are twelve weeks away. But I do generate this data weekly so it makes sense to include it at the end of each article.
The four-week look-ahead shown above is just a close-up of this data, looking only at Weeks 4-7. This chart shows the remaining schedule for each DST (not including Week 18) and their color-coded opponents based on the current matchup strength rankings. On the right side of the column are two separate SOS scores. These scores are calculated by averaging the ranks of the opponents across two phases:
- The rest of the regular season (Weeks 4-14)
- Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).
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