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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/11/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, September 11, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 68-51-4 (+1.85 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Astros
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU -300
OAK: Ken Waldichuk | HOU: Framber Valdez
I'll start Monday with the same bet I finished with yesterday: a run line against the Athletics.
They'll send Ken Waldichuk (2-7, 5.63 ERA) to the mound. Waldichuk has been a bit unlucky this season, as shown by his 4.92 xERA and 5.11 xFIP, but still not great, obviously. Waldichuk has allowed four earned runs in six innings pitched against the Astros in 2023, and comes into this one with a projected 5.15 SIERA. The Astros bring in a projected .449 wOBA.
It'll be Framber Valdez on the mound for the Astros tonight. Valdez (11-9, 3.30 ERA) had a rough start against the Athletics last time out, but in two starts prior threw 15 innings of one-run ball, including a complete game shutout back on May 21. Valdez brings in a 4.21 xERA and 3.44 xFIP while projecting to a 4.07 SIERA against an Athletics offense that projects to an actually respectable .328 wOBA.
However, every game from now until the end of this season matters for Houston. While the line is juiced, I think they cover this run line with ease, making me confident that Astros -1.5 is still a quality play here.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.75 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -225
LAA: Reid Detmers | SEA: Logan Gilbert
I'll wrap things up in the PNW as the Angels come into town to take on the Mariners.
It'll be Reid Detmers (3-10, 4.82 ERA) taking the hill for the Angels. Detmers has been bad this season, to be sure, but has been a bit unlucky, bringing in a 4.60 xERA and 4.34 xFIP. He'll take on an offense that absolutely shelled him back on August 4, where he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits including three home runs across four innings. He projects to a 4.65 SIERA while the Mariners project to a .401 wOBA.
The Mariners will give the pill to Logan Gilbert (13-5, 3.61 ERA) tonight. Gilbert's expected stats have been right on par with his actual numbers, as he brings in a 3.71 xERA and 3.65 xFIP. While there is a small sample of regression, it shouldn't be noticeable. His 3.62 projected SIERA according to my model says the same. The Angels offense projects very poorly against him here, projecting to just a .279 wOBA.
There's a huge discrepancy in offense, pitching, and bullpens here. I think the fact that we can get the Mariners' run line at even money on FanDuel is an absolute steal. Let's run it.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+100), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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