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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With a full lineup of matinee baseball spread throughout the day, we're left with a fun-sized six-game main slate. All the top pitching options are in tough spots today, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 9/6/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. STL ($12,300 DK, $12,300 FD)
You simply won't find a ceiling higher than Spencer Strider's. Through 27 starts, he boasts a 2.95 xERA and 2.87 xFIP. That includes a phenomenal .196 xBA, .268 xwOBA, 34.7% hard-hit rate, .336 xSLG, and an 88.1 MPH average exit velocity. Given all that, Strider's 3.56 ERA feels a little unfair. Still, let's not bury the lead Strider carries an unreal 38% strikeout rate, legitimized by a 40% whiff rate and 35% chase rate. Even if the Cardinals manage to plate a few runs, Strider flirts with double-digit strikeouts nearly every time out.
The Cardinals aren't the easiest opponent, but there isn't enough here to scare me off of Strider. They score 4.5 runs per game on the season, down to a middling 4.2 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, along with a .758 OPS and .329 wOBA. St. Louis is no pushover offense, but the other aces on this slate have much worse matchups.
Clarke Schmidt, NYY vs. DET ($7,100 DK, $8,800 FD)
I don't think spending up for two aces is the way to go on this slate. So with value in mind, Clarke Schmidt looks to be the most suitable SP2 option. Across 28 appearances, he owns a middling 4.13 xERA and 4.26 xFIP. Nothing about Schmidt's offering is well beyond average, outside of a strong 30% chase rate, 6.5% walk rate, and .314 xwOBA. He isn't a terribly exciting play, but Schmidt can get the job done at a very affordable price. If you hope to roster any expensive Atlanta Braves bats, this is the type of discount move you'll find necessary.
Despite second-half improvements, the Tigers remain one of the more exploitable offenses in baseball. They carry an awful 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, including a .678 OPS and .296 wOBA. Detroit has also struck out at a generous 24.8% against right-handed pitchers this season, up to a 25.8% mark since the All-Star break.
Also consider: Max Scherzer, Kyle Gibson, Touki Toussaint
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. – SS, KC vs. Touki Toussaint ($6,400 DK, $4,200 FD)
Bobby Witt Jr. is having a tremendous sophomore campaign. He's slashing .275/.314/.499 with 28 home runs and 39 stolen bases. That includes a blistering .537 xSLG, .294 xBA, 11.6% barrel rate, and .371 xwOBA. A significant amount of that production has come in the second half, where Witt owns a .952 OPS, 151 wRC+, and 14 home runs.
Touki Toussaint sports a weak 5.20 xERA and 5.01 xFIP. He doesn't get blasted as much as you'd expect with overarching numbers like that, but Toussaint has prolific control issues. He's walking hitters at a 16% rate this year, part of a 14.2% career mark. If Witt gets on base, he's a stolen base threat every time.
Ryan Mountcastle – 1B, BAL vs. Patrick Sandoval ($4,600 DK, $3,300 FD)
Ryan Mountcastle is always worth a look against left-handed pitchers. He's crushed 12 home runs off of southpaws this season, including a 1.092 OPS and 191 wRC+. Overall, Mountcastle sports a .277/.329/.471 slash line with 18 home runs. That includes a .519 xSLG and 12.8% barrel rate.
Patrick Sandoval isn't the most vulnerable to home runs, but he still gets touched up. Through 24 starts, he carries a 4.51 xERA and 4.48 xFIP. Sandoval walks hitters at an 11% rate and surrenders a .255 xBA, so hitters are getting on base frequently. He's given up five runs or more in three of his last four outings and averages barely north of five innings per game – which means it's likely the Angels' weak bullpen gets a lot of run today.
Ronny Mauricio – 2B/SS, NYM vs. Joan Adon ($3,100 DK, $2,500 FD)
Ronny Mauricio's MLB career is only four games deep, but he's hit safely in every appearance so far. He slashed .292/.346/.506 with 23 home runs and 24 stolen bases in Triple-A this season. Mauricio is the fourth-ranked prospect in the Mets' farm system and features major offensive upside.
Joan Adon has been lit up to the tune of a .455 xSLG, 10.2% barrel rate, 45.5% hard-hit rate, and 90.3 MPH average exit velocity. Left-handed hitters are slugging .550 against Adon this season, up from a .529 career mark. Numerous Mets bats look good against him today.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Robert Jr. – OF, CHW vs. Jordan Lyles ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
The expectation is that Luis Robert Jr. will return to the starting lineup today. He's unquestionably the most valuable hitter in the White Sox lineup. Robert is slashing .272/.324/.560 with 35 home runs this season. That includes a .533 xSLG, 15.4% barrel rate, and .358 xwOBA. Robert's price tag has dropped recently, and he feels underpriced in this spot.
Jordan Lyles is always worth targeting against. He's surrendered a .481 xSLG, 10.3% barrel rate, .262 xBA, and .342 xwOBA. That all amounts to a 5.37 xFIP and 4.99 xERA. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .485 against Lyles, so stacking up some Chicago hitters is not a bad approach.
Marcell Ozuna – OF, ATL vs. Dakota Hudson ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD)
Even within the dominant Atlanta batting order, Marcell Ozuna might be their hottest hitter right now. He's whacked 16 second-half home runs with a 1.033 OPS and 172 wRC+. Overall, he's slashing .269/.343/.543 with 33 home runs, and he has a very realistic opportunity to surpass his career-high 37 long balls set in 2017. Ozuna's resurgence has been a surprising development, but the results are legitimized by numbers like a .571 xSLG, 16.4% barrel rate, and 48.5% hard-hit rate.
Dakota Hudson is among Wednesday's worst pitchers. He carries a 5.10 xERA and 4.93 xFIP through 13 appearances. That includes a .264 xBA, .449 xSLG, 44.1% hard-hit rate, and 90.2 MPH average exit velocity. Hudson gets blasted, especially against right-handed hitters. If not for his 52.2% groundball rate, Hudson would have a much worse home run problem. I still expect him to get taken deep in this matchup.
Jasson Dominguez – OF, NYY vs. Matt Manning ($3,100 DK, $3,500 FD)
Jasson Dominguez is another September call-up that's made a good impression early on. He's hit safely in all four MLB appearances, including two home runs. Dominguez is the second-ranked prospect in the Yankees farm system. He offers above-average power and above-average running ability, which translated into 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A this season.
Matt Manning's advanced metrics suggest he is pitching much worse than his 3.62 ERA lets on. Through 14 starts, he sports a 5.41 xERA and 5.35 xFIP. That consists of a .500 xSLG, 11% barrel rate, 43.2% hard-hit rate, 90.7 MPH average exit velocity, and an 18.5% whiff rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Dakota Hudson
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
New York Mets vs. Joan Adon
Favorite Plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez
Also Consider: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles
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