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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Sunday edition of MLB Player Props! We have a pretty loaded pitching slate, so I am going to focus mainly on strikeout props, but I did toss in a hitting prop I love, too.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, June 11, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kevin Gausman OVER 8.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
Who does Gausman think he is with this number, Spencer Strider? Well, I mean...he's close. With a 34% K rate, Gausman is second in the MLB behind Strider in K%. However, Gausman has better overall numbers, including a lower ERA, WHIP, a superior walk rate, and he's notched double-digit strikeouts six times to Strider's three.
So the reality is we should probably have been getting Gausman props at 7.5 for a while now and the bump up to 8.5 in this matchup is well-warranted as the Twins have a ridiculous 32% K% against RHP over the last two weeks. Their mark on the season is approaching 28% now and they continue to be a team that we have to consider going against every day while they are rolling out this version of their lineup.
There are three hitters with 30% K rates or worse in today's lineup and another three guys between 25-29%. Gausman had eight strikeouts against them back on May 26, but he had a fluky bad five-walk game, too, which drove up his pitch count and made for an early exit in the sixth inning. If he has his excellent control today and pitches into the seventh or eighth inning, he could easily hit double-digits again.
He has the best strikeout projection in my K model of the season at...11 strikeouts today! That's wild and the fact that we are getting plus odds here makes me want to smash this bet with multiple units OR run a ladder up to 12 on FanDuel.
Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
I am really excited about this line today, too. We have yet another elite pitcher going up a team who has really struggled recently against RHP in the strikeout department and we are getting the over at even money.
Gallen has settled down after a scorching start, but he still brings a solid 27.9% K% to the mound today to face a Detroit team that is whiffing over 27% of the time lately vs. RHP. Like Gausman, Gallen doesn't walk guys and often pitches deep into games, giving him a solid chance of hitting his number even in the late innings (I believe he got over the 5.5 hump on his last two hitters against Atlanta last time out).
JP Sears OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
It's almost become an auto-play for me -- that is lefties against the Brewers. Though Milwaukee is slowly starting to come back to the field in K% against lefties, they still own one of the worst marks in baseball. And Sears, despite his inconsistency this year, owns a solid 23% K rate.
Sears is a tough guy to get right sometimes as we don't know if he's going to have confidence in his changeup or if he's going to rely on his fastball too much. When he throws his fastball too often and doesn't locate it well, he gets hit hard, we know that. But if he can work the corners and mix in his changeup while ahead in the count, he could also easily strike out 7-8 Brewers today.
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Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
Gilbert has been a favorite of mine for K props this year. He rarely gets the bump up to 6.5 very often, despite owning a solid 28.2% K%. He's been good for 6+ in all but two starts this season, he just doesn't usually clear the bar by much as his season-high is 10 strikeouts and he's gone for nine or 10 K just twice.
Again, the recent trends favor him in this matchup as the Angels have been striking out more often in the recent two-week window than their overall season numbers. Gilbert has had some impressive starts recently against the Padres and Braves -- two solid offenses and so we have seen him rise to the occasion before against good-hitting teams.
Shane McClanahan UNDER 7.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings)
I am going to go under on my boy Shane McClanahan today as the numbers suggest he could struggle against this elite Texas offense. McClanahan is having a fine season, but he's still struggling with walks and he hasn't been quite as dominant this year in terms of big strikeout games as he was last year. In fact, he's only gone over eight strikeouts in three starts this year and it's been a while since he did it as his last big K outing was a nine-strikeout performance against the Pirates back on May 3.
The Rangers only strike out around 20% of the time against lefties and they also own an impressive 134 wRC+, too, meaning they are a dangerous offense that can force a pitcher out early on any given day.
Hitter Prop of the Day - Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OVER 1.5 total bases (-110)
Gurriel and the Snakes get a date with lefty Joey Wentz in the early game today. Wentz has been outright bad this year, and particularly bad of late as he's allowed five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. He's allowing a .419 wOBA to righties this season and a .220 ISO -- ouch.
Meanwhile, Gurriel has been humming right along as the three-hitter for this Diamondbacks team. He is having a very productive year, hitting over .300 with 10 home runs. He took lefty Matt Boyd deep yesterday, which extended his streak of games with an extra-base hit to four in a row.
No out on the books yet, but I'll be watching for J.D. Martinez's prop as he has some solid BvP stats data against Walker and has also been one of the hotter hitters in a surging Dodgers lineup.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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